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Marwaan Karame

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  • Long - Premier, Inc.: Newly Traded Company Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Buddy. I agree that the companies selected are not a pure play peer set. If anything, it represents a broader ecosystem of Healthcare related companies.

    However, that wouldn't impact the accuracy of the EVA model. If anything, the range estimates might be less precise or not as narrow as they could be with a pure play peer set, but the wider ranges would mean the analysis is more conservative. To clarify, when I think of accuracy I think in terms of whether the outcome will fall within my estimated range. When I speak of precision, I think of how narrow my estimated range will be. By example a point estimate would be very precise, but would be completely inaccurate if it is not exactly in line with the outcome.

    In any case, I appreciate your comment. Thanks again.
    Apr 22 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    For those who were able to hold on to QCOR over the last 12 months, congrats.
    Jul 31 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Questcor Bear Raid - An Analysis [View article]
    Excellent article.
    Oct 18 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Zagg: 94% Probability Of A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Congrats heliskiier. You got an amazing deal.
    Aug 7 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Hello Bernasca,

    I won't profess to be an expert on the day to day trading activities of the market, as I tend to agree with Benjamin Graham's metaphor of "Mr. Market", an emotional wreck with major mood swings from excessive highs to suicidal lows.

    That said, if calls are outnumbering puts by 3 to 1, then this looks like a very positive sign. Obviously the operating numbers and results were very good. Therefore, short sellers have there back to the wall. Misinformation is the only weapon for short sellers when a company like this has such strong fundamentals. However, short sellers can only pull the elastic band so far before it snaps back violently.

    One possible scenario is that major investors are trying to bate more short sellers into the frenzy, while silently increasing their long position at a lower share price. I think it will then become a question of who is left holding the bag.

    In any case, the question still remains on valuation. I tend to look at it from the stand point of owning a company versus owning a stock. If I were to buy this company outright at the current price, would I be getting a good deal? The answer is absolutely yes. At some point, a big pharma company will think so too. Big Pharma is desperate for growth and are willing to pay a significant amount for it. QCOR has that growth, and more importantly, profitable growth.
    Jul 25 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Hello Isaac,

    The numbers clearly indicate that the current business model is solid. That can't be questioned. However, what can be questioned is the sustainability of this business model.

    As a result, I took the dim view that the company would be unable to sustain its competitive advantage, as indicated by declining revenue growth and spreads. The analysis assumes exactly what you are saying, which is the company will have to become more competitive in its pricing as competitive pressures mount. And yet despite these assumptions, the fair value is clearly an attractive buy.

    What is perhaps neglected in this analysis, is that there are 18-19 other indications all of which represent a market, of which have not been exploited. Add in the fact that the company is a very good acquisition candidate, as big pharma desperately attempts to back fill their portfolio of patent expiring drugs, and you are left with a company with significant upside.
    Jul 23 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Thank you Jennifer ... lol (i.e. your last sentence)
    Jul 20 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Thank you Sensible Investor.
    Jul 20 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Thanks drdon.
    Jul 20 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Agreed.
    Jul 20 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Thanks Jerry. However in all honesty, it could have easily gone the other way today and still could. That said, over the long-term I'm confident (95% to be exact) that the price will increase to reflect the underlying value.
    Jul 19 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Draws Closer For Questcor [View article]
    Thanks ggpique. I agree, this pull back has been a great opportunity to buy more shares.
    Jul 19 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Zagg: 94% Probability Of A Short Squeeze [View article]
    I have seen no news or evidence of this, so it is tough to comment.
    Jun 1 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Long Zagg: 94% Probability Of A Short Squeeze [View article]
    I believe it may be due to a knee jerk reaction to a recent S-3 filing. A lock-up agreement is about to expire towards the end of June and those early investors are simply registering these shares so that they can sell them if they choose to. Also, warrants may be exercised, which might help the company with additional working capital needs, given their recent distribution agreement with Walmart for 900 stores, as well as their recent agreement with Cincinnati Bell. In my opinion, the long-term prospects still look very promising.
    May 30 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Are Wrong: Here's Why [View article]
    Thanks.
    May 17 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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