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Mathias Holmstrøm  

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  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    Well Norway has higher interest rates than the US (and EU as I remember).
    And their debt is relatively low as well, which he likes.
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    This is the logic of Peter Schiff:
    The lower the interest rates of the country --> the more he is bearish on the country.
    The higher the debt/GDP ratio is --> the more he is bearish on the country.

    The above are the 2 only factors he seems to consider (I read and watched a lot of Peter Schiff). This is just insanely simplistic.
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    Because a lot of his investments are based on assumptions (which he isn't even outlying as asusmptions, but as facts), and there are a lot of variables he doesn't consider.
    Aug 30, 2012. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    I wonder if Peter Schiff ever gets tied of repeating the same thing over and over with basically the same arguments.

    Though I do agree with Peter Schiff on a political point of view, I think he as an investor is way too narrow minded and simplistic.
    Aug 30, 2012. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Soros Stake In Manchester United Send Shares Above IPO Prices? [View article]
    Bookies think Citys are slight favourites over United. United is given around a 30% probability of winning the premier league by bookies. But its a trap to think a player (even a world class), besides Messi and Ronaldo can make a huge difference for a team, because a team can only have 11 players on a team, and Van Persie isn't that much better than the player he replaces.
    Of course if United had no Rooney or other strikers of any decent caliber, Van Persie would make a huge impact. That is, however, not the case.
    The thing is, fans don't understand investment decisions. They only think in short-term results, and unfortunately management has to give into the pressure, which too often causes them too make ill-advised decisions.
    Aug 30, 2012. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is McDonald's Worth Buying? [View article]
    Agaffar: Commodity prices affects the EBITDA margin negatively, and over a long-term perspective I dont' expect commodity prices to have any significant impact on the margin. From what I understood by reading the earnings conferences, McDonald's has hedged some of the impact that increased commodity prices will have on margins, so I am not particular worrisome.
    Aug 29, 2012. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Gone Wrong For Procter & Gamble? [View article]
    Berloe: Following your logic (and assuming the reserve is true as well), then the future price cuts will have no impact volume. So revenues of P&G will (if they follow through with the price cuts) decline by even more than I assumed in my calculations.
    Aug 28, 2012. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Gone Wrong For Procter & Gamble? [View article]
    Jeanewight: I believe there is two ways they can regain market share:
    1) Lowering prices.
    2) Making better products.

    I believe they will be able to regain market share through lower prices, but it will take a couple of years, and in that period profits will be lower (ceteris paribus).
    But I also think they are capable of making great/innovative products. They are spending more on R&D than their competitors, and thereby we could expect them to deliver better products in the future.

    But still, I think there are limited growth opportunities for P&G. To justify the current share price I think P&G needs to grow earnings by around 5% over a longer time period. It's tough to predict earnings 10 years from now, but over the next 5 years I don't think they will capable of growing earnings by more than a couple of percent.
    Aug 28, 2012. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Ackman See In P&G? [View article]
    P&G isn't waiting to release anything. Its $10 billion over 5 years, and they are already on schedule (though it hasn't gone exactly as planned). They fired some people, and it's possible for them to save more on the SG&A expenses than what the savings plan originally outlined.
    However, they are not cutting down on marketing expenses, and they will not grow 5% as they originally planned when they released the plan. This means they can't $6 billion on costs of goods sold. According to my calculations they will save around $5 billion (on costs of goods sold), and if everything else goes according to plan, they will save a total $9 billion over 5 years.
    Gross margins won't be improved during the time span as they will try to get back market share by lowering prices.

    I think the profit over the next couple of years will be unchanged, and given that P&G is trading at a 14.7 forward P/E it's a bit too expensive.
    Aug 22, 2012. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Any Value Left In McDonald's? [View article]
    If you read the earnings conference, MCD apparently does a pretty good job of hedging the risk from price increases in commodities.
    Aug 22, 2012. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Soros Stake In Manchester United Send Shares Above IPO Prices? [View article]
    Yes but Van Persie will not significant improve Man U winning chances. If Man U has a 30% probability of winning PL without Van Persie, they might have a 31% probability of winning with him.
    But of course, then you have to add increased sales of shirts to the equation. Still not worth it though, and I wonder why Soros invested in it.
    Aug 21, 2012. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Soros Stake In Manchester United Send Shares Above IPO Prices? [View article]
    I wonder how much Van Persie actually adds in marketvalue to the company. I doubt its more than $10-20 million dollars, and he was purchased for $40 million, its definitely a losing investment. Van Persie has been injured in 7 out of the last 8 seasons, and I suspect a mean-reversion regarding his performance this season.
    Aug 21, 2012. 04:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Vs. General Motors: An Investment Analysis [View article]
    Smilytmm: I think GMNA will do very well within the next 1-3 years. Not so sure about China, though, as there currently seem to be some oversuply issues in China. Over the long haul (3+ years), I think China will outperform North America, and I think Europe will be slightly profitable for GM.

    Btw the correlation between GMNA and Ford North America, and GME and Ford Europe is really high. If one of the companies does well in North America, the other one also performs well.
    Aug 19, 2012. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was I Too Hard On Coca-Cola? [View article]
    Do you think Coca-Cola can generate positive alpha for investors? Or do you "seek" something else when you invest?
    Aug 19, 2012. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Vs. General Motors: An Investment Analysis [View article]
    Wixeywaxy: I agree that Alan Mullaly is better than anyone at GM, but everything depends on the price you pay. And even with the mediocre management of GM, it's still possible for them to make money.
    Aug 19, 2012. 06:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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