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Mathias Holmstrøm

 
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  • Microsoft Finally Gained Some Momentum: But Is It Deserved? [View article]
    Hey heliskiier

    Your point about hardware division for free is pretty good. I am in the proces of doing a DCF valuation on the company and even when I am not modelling any significant growth in tablet sales and expecting Xbox One to be somewhat of a dissapointing, the fair value of the stock Price is still above $35.
    Oct 26, 2013. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Finally Gained Some Momentum: But Is It Deserved? [View article]
    Hey ssnlive

    Yes I could have been more clear about this, but there are also Xbox royalties and revenue from Xbox live subscription service in it. I didn't want too spend too much time in the article showing all the calculations - maybe that wasn't the right decision though.
    Oct 26, 2013. 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Finally Gained Some Momentum: But Is It Deserved? [View article]
    Yeh too some extent that may also be true. But im not sure Windows hybrid sales are that significant (?)
    Oct 26, 2013. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: It's iPhone Or Bust [View article]
    I also assumed sales of 12M iPads (or so) orginally, however given the way I interpret the 170M figure, it seems that Apple sold around 14M iPads the year.
    Personally I am also lowering my iPhone sales estimates to around 32.5M units. For next quarter, I expect guidance of revenue between 56B and 60B with gross margin in the 38-42% range.
    Oct 26, 2013. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Earnings: The Growth That Matters [View article]
    Hey Wiesje:
    I think Ballmer gets a bit too much hate. He is definitely not the most succesful CEO out there, but I think he should get more credit for Microsoft's cloud position which looks extremely strong at the moment.
    Oct 24, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    I actually had written about this initially. But when just before I submitted it, I decided to remove it, as I felt it simply made the article too long given the fact that it had relatively little relevance for the valuation (according to my estimations it will increase EPS, holding outstanding shares constant, by 4 cents).
    Oct 15, 2013. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    Hey Eric

    I am glad your looking at this area, because this is ultimately the most important aspect of the valuation of ATVI to assess. The problem I have with relying on Blizzard to come up with a super profitable business model is that they don't have any good track record of monetizing through microtransactions. The D3 RMAH was the first attempt, but it failed miserable. In my opinion Bnet 2.0 should simply have been designed with two features in mind;

    1) The social experience
    2) Money

    , however it did neither particularly well. And I simply can'tsee how it can earn that much money on Titan. I guess it can make it possible for players to purchase new clothes to their characters? Or maybe make it possible for gamers to buy new characters?

    What are your thoughts here?
    Oct 15, 2013. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    I guess I could have been a bit more clear about this. But, if we assume that Titan and Destiny will gradually replace WOW and Titan over the next 10 years --> Earnings will decline by a lot.
    The problem here is that Wow and COD could/can produce stable earnings on annual basis, while both Destiny and Titan will only produce "real" earnings when a new game in the franchise is released.
    IMO that's something that all analysts and long investors have simply ignored - For some reason they apparently think the multitransactions model can generate hundreds of millions of dollars on annual basis.
    Alternatively (my theory), they have no idea about how the industry is changing.
    Oct 15, 2013. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    The comparison here is based on the fact that Activision has a tendency to milk rather than innovate. I would give more credit to Activision if it had a history of constant innovation. When that is said, there is nothing about the franchise that makes me think sales won't increase in the near future.
    Oct 15, 2013. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    Christopher: Earnings over the last of those two franchises doesn't really add up. For Sc2 Hots was released, which I estimate has sold 2.5-3M copies (at most)

    Besides, I don't think my article contradicts anything you wrote. Regarding CoD, all I am saying is that I expect it to decline at a relatively low rate over the next couple of years.
    Oct 15, 2013. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    Good point, though I have taking into account (it is one of the drivers in my earnings model) that products costs will decline somewhat in the future.
    Oct 15, 2013. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can iPhone Earnings Continue To Grow In 2014? [View article]
    Michael: I agree with your view on a longer term (2-5 years), however sales seem to continue to increase, thus I don't see any reason to expect a steep decline in market share. The iPhone 5c doesn't need to be a big seller. All it needs to be is a high-margin middlerange phone.
    Oct 9, 2013. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can iPhone Earnings Continue To Grow In 2014? [View article]
    I don't use IDC forecast. I use their estimates with my own forecasts. I described my methodology in this article.
    Oct 9, 2013. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Why Lumia Earnings Barely Matter [View article]
    No I am saying that short-term losses aren't particularly concerning if they are less than expected synergy effects.
    Oct 2, 2013. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Didn't Fix Its Biggest Problem [View article]
    The problem with 4s atm. is that it serves as a low gross margin option for consumers in developed countries that "steals" sales from the newer phones. I would have prefered a slightly cheaper iPhone 5c that could replace both the iPhone 5 and iPhone 4s at the same time (rather than just the iPhone 5).

    Then in developing markets I believe Apple should priortize market share over profits for the short-term. The current strategy doesn't really accomplish that.
    Sep 29, 2013. 05:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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