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Matt Berry
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Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattBerry01 I'll be publishing on my blog from now on. I usually send my reports through a newsletter first. Join the mailing list at http://www.3footcrowbar.com/ Interests: -- reading up on bounded rationality, behaviorism, and philosophy -- writing... More
My blog:
3 Foot Crowbar
My book:
The Mechanics of Virtue: A cynic's guide to righteous behavior
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  • AEGR's “acceleration” Does Not Add Up

    RE: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR)

    (Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattBerry01)

    Aegerion's "acceleration" in patient count does not add up. In fact, its third quarter revenue is more consistent with flat patient growth.

    Is this why Aegerion suddenly stopped revealing patient counts last quarter?

    See full article at: http://www.3footcrowbar.com/2013/11/aegrs-acceleration-does-not-add-up.html

    This only adds more suspicion to Aegerion. As demonstrated in my previous article, "Estimates of Aegerion's addressable market at odds by 1,000%,"[1] the company's CEO has been promoting a US HoFH population of 3,000, while the very scientists associated with Aegerion put the number at 300. Even a Nobel Prize winner put the number at 300, in his acceptance speech. And now we have new questions surrounding the number of patients on therapy.

    Thesis:

    Calculating AEGR's revenue at zero patient growth and then accounting for multi-month shipments yields a total roughly equal to AEGR's actual reported revenue, suggesting that there was no growth in patients for the 3rd quarter.

    Disclosure: I am short AEGR.

    Nov 27 12:45 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Why I Believe Reliv International Is Going Back To $1.25 (RELV)

    See my blog at http://www.3footcrowbar.com/

    Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattBerry01

    I believe we are going back to somewhere around $1.35 -- not just because that is where the stock had previously been trading, and not just because that is near book value. But because the hype that exploded the stock price does not compensate for the poor fundamentals. And by the way, was the recent press release timed to divert attention from the California litigation?

    (click to enlarge)RELV back to 1.35

    See, Reliv International (RELV) is in the middle of an accusation of "failure to warn consumers that they have been exposed to lead from several of the company's nutritional health products. Lead is a chemical known to the State of California to cause cancer, birth defects and other reproductive harm." ~ Case: CIV1300429 Superior Court of the State of California

    (click to enlarge)Complaint Against Reliv for lead content

    That complaint was initiated in January of 2013 by Environment Research Center, ("ERC")a non-profit corporation. A proposed stipulated consent judgment was later signed by Reliv's CFO and attorney. As usual, the defendant does not have to admit guilt. Nonetheless, according to the proposed consent judgment, as signed by Reliv's representatives,

    • Civil penalties must be paid "pursuant to Health & Safety Code Section 25249.7(b)(1)"
    • A portion of the above penalty is to be paid to the office of Environmental Hazard Assessment.

    And most telling of all,

    • "Since receiving ERC's Notices of Violation, Reliv has revised the formula for all of the covered Products to bring the lead levels in the Covered products that are manufactured going forward to below 0.5 micrograms per day, the level at which a warning would be required pursuant to Proposition 65." (Source: Proposed Stipulated Consent Judgment)

    How can one bring levels below a required limit without implying that one had been above it?

    (click to enlarge)Reliv brings lead levels down

    (click to enlarge)proposed consent judgment signed by Reliv

    And what was the big deal with the press release announcing "exclusive rights" to Lunasin? Reliv's price exploded. Ryan Montgomery, Reliv president claimed, "For the first time we own an ingredient in its entirety, from the extraction process to the patented mechanisms of action within the body. And lunasin isn't just any ingredient; it's the world's first epigenetic superfood." ~ Press Release: "Reliv Acquires Exclusive Rights to 'Superfood' Lunasin"

    It is hard to know exactly what Mr. Montgomery meant. Certainly he is not claiming to own the natural ingredient, lunasin. He may however be referring to the trademark Lunasin, which according to its registration is for synthetic peptides. (USPTO Trademark Registration) (See my last article on Seeking Alpha: Reliv' the Hype.)

    Add to all of this Reliv's disclosure that some of its products contain genetically modified organisms and one wonders what kind of reaction the distributors will have when the news gets out.

    (click to enlarge)some of Reliv

    RELV SEC filed 10-k

    So why do I believe that Reliv's price will go down in the long run? Not "just because" of the points mentioned above. I don't think that any of the above matters as much as the simple fact that Reliv appears to be losing its distributor base -- one year at a time. And with that decrease, its sales are also decreasing -- one year at a time. The numbers say it all ...

    Reliv

    Reliv

    Disclosure: I am short RELV.

    Aug 14 8:35 PM | Link | Comment!
  • CLIR 3,167,761 Shares In Lock-up, Agreements Expire April 24

    (click to enlarge)

    for in depth research on CLIR see http://www.3footcrowbar.com/

    Lock Up Expiration

    "3,167,761 shares of common stock continue to be subject to lock-up agreements which will expire on April 24, 2013" (CLIR) SEC 10-K

    ~ http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1434524/000114420413010734/v332327_10k.htm

    "Shares eligible for future sale may adversely affect the market.

    "In conjunction with the initial public offering of our common stock, substantially all of our shareholders signed "lock-up" agreements. As of the date of this report, 3,167,761 shares of common stock continue to be subject to lock-up agreements which will expire on April 24, 2013. These include 2,380,863 shares owned by our officers, directors, certain of our employees, and trusts established for the benefit of the children of one of our officers, and 786,898 shares owned by MDB Capital Group LLC, its officers, directors, associates, and certain employees. Following the expiration of the lock-up agreements, all of these shares will be eligible for sale by means of ordinary brokerage transactions in the open market pursuant to Rule 144 promulgated under the Securities Act, subject to certain limitations. Furthermore, there are an additional 13,500 shares of common stock that will become eligible for sale pursuant to Rule 144 in 2013. Any substantial sale of our common stock pursuant to Rule 144 may have a material adverse effect on the market price of our common stock."

    "3,167,761 shares of common stock continue to be subject to lock-up agreements which will expire on April 24, 2013" $CLIR SEC 10-K

    ~ http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1434524/000114420413010734/v332327_10k.htm

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CLIR+Key+Statistics

    Share Statistics

     

    Avg Vol (3 month)3:

    94,648

    Avg Vol (10 day)3:

    243,975

    Shares Outstanding5:

    8.78M

    Float:

    6.66M

    % Held by Insiders1:

    24.37%

    % Held by Institutions1:

    4.10%

    Shares Short (as of Mar 15, 2013)3:

    157.25K

    Short Ratio (as of Mar 15, 2013)3:

    1.20

    Short % of Float (as of Mar 15, 2013)3:

    3.00%

    Shares Short (prior month)3:

    160.75K

    Source: Yahoo Finance

    Disclosure: I am short CLIR.

    Tags: CLIR
    Apr 11 2:59 PM | Link | Comment!
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