Matt Blackman

Five Challenges Ahead as the Corporate Soup Lines Grow

Daniel;
I wish you luck because history is not on your side. I have done some fairly extensive research on the election cycle and the two years after a US election are hard on all markets and stocks pretty much world wide. The ratio for the Dow/SPX since 1902 works out to 93% of the gains occurred in the 26 months leading up to each election versus just 7% in the 22 months after. As well with the exception of the relatively short-lived Oct 1987 meltdown, every single major bear market and recession since WWII has occurred in the 2 years after a US election. The ratio of the Toronto TSX for the 2 years pre-election versus post-election since 1950 is 97:3 or 32:1. Not a very attractive probability (see tradesystemguru.com/co... )