Matt Blackman

36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull

Cara;
You and all the other analysts I've heard labeling this an excellent or 'once in a generational time' to buy may be right. But given the trend we are in there is a greater chance you and they are wrong. (Trends reverse when a force greater than what is pushing them down exerts an upward force). Such major trend reversals do not happen often especially considering that the bailout attempts are now having a diminishing effect (see tradesystemguru.com/co... ). Our debt situation ( tradesystemguru.com/co... ) doesn't help....

Analysts See Dow Rising Sharply in 2008

I wonder what the analysts' track record is? They rarely mention that in such forecasts. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Abbey Cohen bullishly optimistic in January 2000 as the market was peaking and didn't Glassman predict a Dow of 36,000 in 1999? And who can forget Henry Blodget?

I would bet that fundamental analysts have a similar accuracy to economists and here is a report on their accuracy at predicting economic slowdowns...

"In 1929, days after the stock market crash, the Harvard Economic Society reassured its subscribers: “A severe depression is outside the range of probability” In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a recession, even though one had already started. Today, most economists do not forecast a recession in America, but the profession's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort." – Economist November 15.