Matt Blackman

Dollar's Fortunes Should Boost U.S. Economy

The only hole in your theory is that US exports contributed 3.1 percentage points to the 3.3% GDP growth number recently released. A strengthening dollar makes these exports more expensive countered by a positive effect on consumers as the costs of energy and food fall. Will be interesting to see how they two forces balance out.

The other challenge is the GDP growth, CPI figures and just about every other government stat is manipulated, the first fudged higher and the second lower with the end result that real GDP growth (before hedonics, substitutions, imputations) - minus CPI (before the same statistically smoke and mirror tricks of the trade) is negative not positive.

The question is, how will forex trader react to the real numbers once they figure out what they are?