Matt Blackman

The Manipulation of Gold Prices

Does anyone know how to contact Dr; James Conrad (who wrote this article)? My search has come up blank.

Thanks,
Matt Blackman

Inflation Could Cure Our Economic Ills

What do you think "Helicopter Ben" and his Fed minions have been trying to do? By all means, let's do more of what got us into this mess in the first place...not!

Update: Crude Oil, Priced in Gold

State capitalism is socialism you moron. And it is exactly the path the US is on unfortunately.
But follow the Swedish model? Are you smoking something?
Sweden is a small economy relative to the US and socialism is a failed experiment - one only has to look at Sweden to see this to be the case. The so called Swedish experiment took place in 1992 while the US economy (still the largest single economy in the world) was doing relatively well.
If Sweden were a state in the US it would rank among the four poorest US states in terms of per capita prosperity. Socialism i.e. nationalizing companies, may seem like a good solution but it has had painful economic repercussions over the long haul.

Great in theory for those looking for a quick fix but this is a really stupid idea and one only someone writing for the New York Times would consider seriously proposing!

Dow in Secular Bear Market When Priced in Ounces of Gold

Costing the Dow in gold gives us a measure of what the Dow has done in real terms i.e. when it is measured against the most reliable long-term standard of value. It is tells us how stocks have performed when you remove the dollar effect. By my calculations (similar to the chart above) the Dow has declined 72% since its 1999 peak with similar declines for the S&P500 over the same period. We've been hit by the double whammy of a depreciating dollar and lackluster stock performance in the last nine years. In other words, the investor who simply bought gold and held it in 1999 now has more than three times more money than the investor who bought and held the Dow or S&P - a sobering thought...

Matt Blackman
Host TradeSystemGuru.com

Is End-of-the-World-Trade Unwinding?

Interesting overview and comments on volume. Overall volumes have been lower but prices have held which reminds me of the old traders axiom to never short a dull market.

I do disagree with your statement, "In absolute terms, earnings have been poor. In relative terms, earnings have been fantastic as most pieces of news confirm that." That is just simply not true. There have been pockets of strength (like Google and IBM) but overall earnings continue to deteriorate and since it is earnings expectations that drive stock price, stock prices will be weak until earnings turn around. Here is my take from my newsletter last week.

"There may have been a few positive earnings surprises to get investors excited this week but overall, Q1-08 earnings continued to trend lower. According to Bloomberg, profit exceeded analysts' estimates at 58 of 101 companies in the S&P 500 that have released first-quarter results so far this earning season and this is what has excited investors. But earnings fell an average 37% from a year earlier. S&P500 Q1-08 earnings are forecast to decline 13.7%, which if it comes to pass would make it the third straight quarterly decrease. Looking at the broader picture, as of the second week of Q1-08 reporting season a total of 678 companies have now reported and average earnings fell 22% from the same quarter a year ago compared to a drop of 17% last week with 421 companies having reported. This compares to a drop of 57% for Q4-07 (3900 companies), a 21% drop (4205 companies) for Q3-07 reporting season and a 13% jump in Q2-07 (4211 companies). (Is it a coincidence that the total number of companies has dropped each quarter?) " (See Figure 4 in column "The Trouble with Earnings" tradesystemguru.com/co.../ )

The Myth of Gold as an Inflation Hedge

Check out the link to MZM posted by Gigem77 for the real story on money supply. As of the latest Fed figures, total money supply has increased 17% in just 15 months and is now growing at a annualized rate of 39%.

Ben Bernanke wasn't kidding when he asked a couple of years ago why we should worry about deflation as long as we had printing presses and helicopters. It is clear he now running both at combat speed! Certainly no reason to expect the dollar decline to end anytime soon.

Kinda takes the starch out of Price's anti-gold argument doesn't it?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Metals, Global

Very good analysis David as always! Check out the potential Head & Shoulders top forming on the EEM and that we are very near the slightly upward sloping neckline on my weekly chart. If it breaks down, I calculate the minimum downside target at 86 which is a 32% drop from yesterday's close (see tradesystemguru.com/co... )

Matt Blackman - TradeSystemGuru.com