Why Netflix Is Worth $100 per Share (Or Possibly Less) [View article]
Thanks. We did take a small short position, both with the stock directly and out-of-the-money put options. I covered around $125, as I felt that price was the most the future earnings power of the business could be worth.
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
You change the subject! Lol. I was referring to business results, not the performance of the stock.
The business is on fire!!!!!!!
The stock price has not been the past decade because it was richly priced until 2008. As you know a normal market multiple is about 15x earnings. Cisco's P/E in 2002 was over 35. In 2003 it was over 40. It did not fall below 20 until 2008 and it was not undervalued relative to the S & P 500 until 2010.
The stock price became cheap enough earlier this year to make potential long-term returns attractive. This past spring/summer Cisco became cheap not only on an absolute basis but also relative to the S & P 500.
Are you shorting Cisco Brad? Maybe you own shares as it seems you have a love-hate relationship with the firm by selling their products yet publicly bashing them every chance you get.
You should be elected to their board of directors. I'm sure Mr. Chambers would love that! Go for it!
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Since 2002 Revenues have increased from $18.915 billion to $43.218 billion. A CAGR of nearly 10%!
Operating Income has grown from $2.919 billon in 2002 to $7.674 billion. A CAGR of over 11%!
Diluted EPS have grown from $0.25 per share in 2002 to $1.17 per share. A CAGR of nearly 19%!
EPS was down temporarily the past fiscal year due to restructuring charges, but when restructuring is complete margins should be slightly higher and EPS should improve along with possibly higher margins from the roll-out of new products.
Cash - (Debt + Minority Interest) has grown from $12.641 billion in 2002 to $27.73 billion.
So yes Brad, taking a longer-term view, Cisco is absolutely on fire!!!!!!
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
This is exactly the type of crap I am talking about. So what if Cisco lost one small $265 million bid. The article does not imply all Cisco equipment is obsolete, just that the particular equipment provided for this project may become obsolete.
If Cisco equipment were obsolete you would not be making a living from it! Especially USED!
The firm is doing something right as revenues from routers, especially on the high end, advanced technologies, and services have increased substantially from several years ago. The firm also has significant net cash per share even after accounting for potential repatriation. EPS has grown substantially the last decade, despite some dilutive share practices.
Switch revenue is slowing mainly because of public sector cutbacks. However, margins should improve slightly over the next year due to finishing of restructuring and new product roll-outs.
Although I think you know this information. You just choose to cherry pick negative information about Cisco.
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Your comments show complete ignorance, similar to many of your opinions on Cisco, where you resort to ad hominem attacks and are incapable of seeing why some investors find value in Cisco at this price. You have yet to offer any explanation as to why you feel Cisco is a bad buy at this price, only the same talking points reminiscient of a cable news political analyst.
Yes we know Cisco has some dilutive share practices and the CEO often spins news. But so do many other companies. And that still does not mean Cisco is a bad investment at these prices long-term.
I will repeat again since you completely ignore what I have written:
Every broker dealer, financial institution, and the majority of big businesses in the country have had to deal with unethical personnel. Any broker-dealer we choose would have the same issues. You could link their FINRA reports as well. To have 50 issues over several decades involving thousands upon thousands of reps is normal. It also shows the system works in many ways as these unethical reps were censured and/or thrown out of Royal Alliance and many of their victims were compensated for their losses. If a broker-dealer were to show no issues I would be worried because it probably means their reps are not being monitored.
As for our clients they are happy that we have a clean record which can be viewed anytime at FINRA brokercheck. I do not know what your issue is with a family business, such is common in America. Did you not work with your brother? How is that any different? It appears you failed to listen to my story and only hear what you want. Similar to the way you attack Cisco.
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
I repeat since my comments were erased. A registered representative is required to use a broker-dealer to process their business as well as for compliance issues. Every broker-dealer and financial institution, as well as the vast majority of big businesses across the country have had a past incident with unethical personnel at some point. It is stupid to hold all AIG employees responsible for the mistakes of a few. it is just as stupid to hold a rep who chooses to use a subsidiary as a broker-dealer responsible for not only the mistakes of AIG but also the mistakes of other reps.
You may check my record on brokercheck which is clean.
Glad to see you have not lost your touch attacking people and companies even though you do not have all the facts. That is a special talent of yours. If there were a company in the business of ad hominem attacks without regard for any facts, you would be CEO.
Cisco is in the business of providing products and services people need all over the world. They are one of the most profitable and successful companies of all time and have designed some of the most useful products of all time. As you are aware, many e-mails and even comments you send on this blog probably require the services of a Cisco router. Simply put, the technological world does not function without Cisco.
Instead of attacking Cisco all over the web, you would be better off focusing on your business. Perhaps you should listen to a Tony Robbins tape to help you channel your negative energy in a more effective way.
Thanks for the "self reliance" recommendation. Standing by your mom when her husband leaves her broke and helping her rebuild a business that was completely torn apart by borrowing money tends to help someone learn "self reliance" I do not wish that upon anyone but it has certainly helped me. Self reliance is also built by self study programs like the CFA, CFP and an Ivy league MBA, as well as guiding clients through the worst stock market correction since the Great Depression. I have learned enough "self reliance" so I will take a pass on your recommendation to join the army.
Although you are quite unique. There are very few military officers whose full-time job is criticizing Cisco. You have made thousands of comments across the web. I believe your comment about me was the first of them that did not criticize Cisco. Congratulations! Your consecutive comments criticizing Cisco are reminiscient of Cal Ripken's record!
Have fun criticizing Cisco while making a living from their products!
Why Best Buy Is A Better Purchase Than Amazon.com [View article]
"Electronics and other general merchandise" produces high revenue growth but is a low margin business. Costs will go up as fast as revenue does no matter what commodities Amazon sells, large or small.
AWS might be a higher margin business, but we do not know that for sure as Amazon does not break it down. But even if AWS grows ten fold within five years it will still not contribute enough to the top line to improve margins. If anything, since AWS's emergence, operating margins have declined.
As Netflix showed, streaming video is not a high margin business, as purchasing the content is often more costly than revenues generated.
Kindles and tablets are not a high margin business if you are a retailer selling another firm's product, nor are they for many OEMs. The only firm able to generate high margins from tablets is Apple. But they seem to be an exception as their products have resonated all over the world, they control almost the entire design and manufacturing process, they are able to sell products at twice the cost as competitors, and they not only generate revenue from product sales but also subscriptions, itunes, and apps.
Amazing Living Social is in its infancy but does not appear to be a high margin business that will improve the bottom line dramatically.
Amazon can also be a $50 billion company within 5 years. But we shall see.....
Berkshire Hathaway: Is It Really That Cheap [View article]
I disagree with regard to Microsoft. Diluted shares outstanding have decreased significantly, even accounting for stock and options awarded to employees.
Your statement may have been correct several years ago, but since 2006, diluted shares outstanding have decreased substantially.
Why Best Buy Is A Better Purchase Than Amazon.com [View article]
Mr Bezos may be smart, but his brilliance has not translated into improved margins. Gross and operating margins are similar at $50 billion of revenue to where they were at $10 billion of revenue.
Although Amazon Web Services will grow, it will not make a meaningful impact on margins, as even if it grows 10 fold from last year's revenues by 2016, its contribution to the top line would be less than 4%.
Gross margins are limited in the retail business. There is only so much profit in selling commodities in slow growth markets such as electronics and books. And while you would expect operating margins to be higher due to the absence of a "bricks and mortar" facility, surprisingly they are not, as Amazon's shipping, fulfillment, and technology costs are as much or more than the operating costs of traditional "bricks and mortar" retailers.
I estimate Amazon's fair value to be in the low 100s. How do you feel they will improve margins enough to justify the current valuation?
Why Netflix Is Worth $100 per Share (Or Possibly Less) [View article]
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
The business is on fire!!!!!!!
The stock price has not been the past decade because it was richly priced until 2008. As you know a normal market multiple is about 15x earnings. Cisco's P/E in 2002 was over 35. In 2003 it was over 40. It did not fall below 20 until 2008 and it was not undervalued relative to the S & P 500 until 2010.
The stock price became cheap enough earlier this year to make potential long-term returns attractive. This past spring/summer Cisco became cheap not only on an absolute basis but also relative to the S & P 500.
Are you shorting Cisco Brad? Maybe you own shares as it seems you have a love-hate relationship with the firm by selling their products yet publicly bashing them every chance you get.
You should be elected to their board of directors. I'm sure Mr. Chambers would love that! Go for it!
Sincerely,
Brad Reese for Cisco Chairman of the Board
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Operating Income has grown from $2.919 billon in 2002 to $7.674 billion. A CAGR of over 11%!
Diluted EPS have grown from $0.25 per share in 2002 to $1.17 per share. A CAGR of nearly 19%!
EPS was down temporarily the past fiscal year due to restructuring charges, but when restructuring is complete margins should be slightly higher and EPS should improve along with possibly higher margins from the roll-out of new products.
Cash - (Debt + Minority Interest) has grown from $12.641 billion in 2002 to $27.73 billion.
So yes Brad, taking a longer-term view, Cisco is absolutely on fire!!!!!!
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
The revenue for many technology companies is down from 2008 or relatively flat. But since a trough was reached in 2009 revenues are up.
How about Cisco's revenues and earnings growth since 2000? 2005?
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
If Cisco equipment were obsolete you would not be making a living from it! Especially USED!
The firm is doing something right as revenues from routers, especially on the high end, advanced technologies, and services have increased substantially from several years ago. The firm also has significant net cash per share even after accounting for potential repatriation. EPS has grown substantially the last decade, despite some dilutive share practices.
Switch revenue is slowing mainly because of public sector cutbacks. However, margins should improve slightly over the next year due to finishing of restructuring and new product roll-outs.
Although I think you know this information. You just choose to cherry pick negative information about Cisco.
Sincerely,
John Chambers for President
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Yes we know Cisco has some dilutive share practices and the CEO often spins news. But so do many other companies. And that still does not mean Cisco is a bad investment at these prices long-term.
I will repeat again since you completely ignore what I have written:
Every broker dealer, financial institution, and the majority of big businesses in the country have had to deal with unethical personnel. Any broker-dealer we choose would have the same issues. You could link their FINRA reports as well. To have 50 issues over several decades involving thousands upon thousands of reps is normal. It also shows the system works in many ways as these unethical reps were censured and/or thrown out of Royal Alliance and many of their victims were compensated for their losses. If a broker-dealer were to show no issues I would be worried because it probably means their reps are not being monitored.
As for our clients they are happy that we have a clean record which can be viewed anytime at FINRA brokercheck. I do not know what your issue is with a family business, such is common in America. Did you not work with your brother? How is that any different? It appears you failed to listen to my story and only hear what you want. Similar to the way you attack Cisco.
Sincerely Cisco hater,
Brad Reese
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
You may check my record on brokercheck which is clean.
Congrats on your new Ron Jeremy stache.
Sincerely,
Formerly Bearded Brad Reese
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Good points. Although I believe Cisco to be undervalued, additional options not included in diluted shares outstanding must be taken into account.
There are roughly another 737 million potential shares as follows:
621 million stock options
116 million restricted shares
Hardly any are included in diluted shares outstanding. There are 57 million stock options in the money, perhaps some of these are included.
There are also some share based awards available for grant but those should not be counted until they are granted.
The potential effect of more shares decreases my fair value by approximately $3 per share from roughly $29 to $26.
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
http://bit.ly/nsYHzy
Glad to see you have not lost your touch attacking people and companies even though you do not have all the facts. That is a special talent of yours. If there were a company in the business of ad hominem attacks without regard for any facts, you would be CEO.
Cisco is in the business of providing products and services people need all over the world. They are one of the most profitable and successful companies of all time and have designed some of the most useful products of all time. As you are aware, many e-mails and even comments you send on this blog probably require the services of a Cisco router. Simply put, the technological world does not function without Cisco.
Instead of attacking Cisco all over the web, you would be better off focusing on your business. Perhaps you should listen to a Tony Robbins tape to help you channel your negative energy in a more effective way.
Thanks for the "self reliance" recommendation. Standing by your mom when her husband leaves her broke and helping her rebuild a business that was completely torn apart by borrowing money tends to help someone learn "self reliance" I do not wish that upon anyone but it has certainly helped me. Self reliance is also built by self study programs like the CFA, CFP and an Ivy league MBA, as well as guiding clients through the worst stock market correction since the Great Depression. I have learned enough "self reliance" so I will take a pass on your recommendation to join the army.
Although you are quite unique. There are very few military officers whose full-time job is criticizing Cisco. You have made thousands of comments across the web. I believe your comment about me was the first of them that did not criticize Cisco. Congratulations! Your consecutive comments criticizing Cisco are reminiscient of Cal Ripken's record!
Have fun criticizing Cisco while making a living from their products!
Sincerely,
Brad Reese (aka Zach Galifianakis)
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
http://bit.ly/rh76Ei
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Cisco stinks. The company is worth zero. John Chambers is the devil!!!!!!!
Sincerely,
Brad Reese (aka Bob Villa)
Lol.
Shareholder Friendly Cisco Will Outperform Market [View article]
Why Best Buy Is A Better Purchase Than Amazon.com [View article]
AWS might be a higher margin business, but we do not know that for sure as Amazon does not break it down. But even if AWS grows ten fold within five years it will still not contribute enough to the top line to improve margins. If anything, since AWS's emergence, operating margins have declined.
As Netflix showed, streaming video is not a high margin business, as purchasing the content is often more costly than revenues generated.
Kindles and tablets are not a high margin business if you are a retailer selling another firm's product, nor are they for many OEMs. The only firm able to generate high margins from tablets is Apple. But they seem to be an exception as their products have resonated all over the world, they control almost the entire design and manufacturing process, they are able to sell products at twice the cost as competitors, and they not only generate revenue from product sales but also subscriptions, itunes, and apps.
Amazing Living Social is in its infancy but does not appear to be a high margin business that will improve the bottom line dramatically.
Amazon can also be a $50 billion company within 5 years. But we shall see.....
Berkshire Hathaway: Is It Really That Cheap [View article]
Your statement may have been correct several years ago, but since 2006, diluted shares outstanding have decreased substantially.
Why Best Buy Is A Better Purchase Than Amazon.com [View article]
Although Amazon Web Services will grow, it will not make a meaningful impact on margins, as even if it grows 10 fold from last year's revenues by 2016, its contribution to the top line would be less than 4%.
Gross margins are limited in the retail business. There is only so much profit in selling commodities in slow growth markets such as electronics and books. And while you would expect operating margins to be higher due to the absence of a "bricks and mortar" facility, surprisingly they are not, as Amazon's shipping, fulfillment, and technology costs are as much or more than the operating costs of traditional "bricks and mortar" retailers.
I estimate Amazon's fair value to be in the low 100s. How do you feel they will improve margins enough to justify the current valuation?