Matt Callow - Seeking Alpha 'Matt Callow' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/matt-callow Strike Three for Geithner Today? http://seekingalpha.com/article/127301-strike-three-for-geithner-today?source=feed 127301

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will get another opportunity this morning to "try" to ease the public's skittishness with our economy...specifically, the financial sector. I have a very bad feeling that this may be the last strike for our Doogie-Howser look-a-like.

His first strike came when he had to sheepishly admit that he failed to pay over $34,000 in taxes, yet he still felt he deserved to run the institution that demands we pay ours. Yet the President stood beside him and assured us, he was the right man for the job.
Strike two came just a few weeks into the new administration when Geithner was expected to deliver all the details of how he/they were going to save our financial institutions. The plan was short of details, and the market tanked in response.
This morning, "Little Timmy", as I like to call him, will get an opportunity to try again at laying out "the details". This time, he has had an additional month to prepare his remarks. Unfortunately, I believe he is doomed to fail. I believe the market is looking for the perfect plan, a magic bullet, if you will. Any opportunity to pick apart "the details" or lack thereof, is inevitable. Anything short of perfection will be a bad sign. Details of what Geithner will be laying out today have already been released. It's already being viewed with skepticism in the media. Basically, the government would offer loans to private investors (hedge funds and smaller banks) to buy up the troubled assets at the bigger banks. I see two immediate problems with this plan.
First, and most obvious, who would want to buy assets (with borrowed money, nonetheless) that are virtually worthless and have very little chance of providing a return?
Second, what healthy institution would want to accept government money (to buy bad loans) in the face of Congressional shenanigans like 90% taxes on bonuses? Meanwhile, the US taxpayer is out another TRILLION dollars to fund this plan. Have you found any good Tea Parties to attend this year?
Will Geithner be able to deliver today? You'll find your answer in the market's reaction. Personally, I believe Geithner's stock will fall even farther today.

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,

]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 05:14:38 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will get another opportunity this morning to "try" to ease the public's skittishness with our economy...specifically, the financial sector. I have a very bad feeling that this may be the last strike for our Doogie-Howser look-a-like.

His first strike came when he had to sheepishly admit that he failed to pay over $34,000 in taxes, yet he still felt he deserved to run the institution that demands we pay ours. Yet the President stood beside him and assured us, he was the right man for the job.
Strike two came just a few weeks into the new administration when Geithner was expected to deliver all the details of how he/they were going to save our financial institutions. The plan was short of details, and the market tanked in response.
This morning, "Little Timmy", as I like to call him, will get an opportunity to try again at laying out "the details". This time, he has had an additional month to prepare his remarks. Unfortunately, I believe he is doomed to fail. I believe the market is looking for the perfect plan, a magic bullet, if you will. Any opportunity to pick apart "the details" or lack thereof, is inevitable. Anything short of perfection will be a bad sign. Details of what Geithner will be laying out today have already been released. It's already being viewed with skepticism in the media. Basically, the government would offer loans to private investors (hedge funds and smaller banks) to buy up the troubled assets at the bigger banks. I see two immediate problems with this plan.
First, and most obvious, who would want to buy assets (with borrowed money, nonetheless) that are virtually worthless and have very little chance of providing a return?
Second, what healthy institution would want to accept government money (to buy bad loans) in the face of Congressional shenanigans like 90% taxes on bonuses? Meanwhile, the US taxpayer is out another TRILLION dollars to fund this plan. Have you found any good Tea Parties to attend this year?
Will Geithner be able to deliver today? You'll find your answer in the market's reaction. Personally, I believe Geithner's stock will fall even farther today.

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,


Complete Story »]]> Matt Callow Small Vacuum of Time for a Substantial Short-Term Rally http://seekingalpha.com/article/125863-small-vacuum-of-time-for-a-substantial-short-term-rally?source=feed 125863 For those of you following my articles at Seeking Alpha or on my blog, you know that I am fairly bearish on the market. In my government-TSP account (which has very few investment options), I have been hiding out in the G-Fund (like a Money Market Fund) since January 2008. Because of that, I have avoided most of the heavy losses in this market. In my IRA accounts and trading account, I have been mostly short the market, short banks, short real estate, and long gold (off and on). I'm filling you in on my personal account movements as it sets the tone for what I'm going to tell you in the next few paragraphs.

From all the articles/blogs I've read and the gurus I follow, I have felt for the last three months that this market would bottom out with the DJIA at around 5750-6250 and the S&P in a range of 575-625. I'm still not sure when I think this bottom will occur. I've said all along that I felt our economy (housing, jobs, consumer demand, etc) would not recover until 2011. The stock market tends to lead the economy by 6-9 months during normal recessions. Of course, this is NOT a normal recession, which makes timing a market bottom very difficult.
Based on these soft targets for a bottom, I started moving some retirement funds from the cash side to the long side when the Dow hit 7200 about two weeks ago. I started with a 30% position, leaving 70% in cash. Being realistic about my bottom-calling ability made me realize that I would miss a potential up move if I held out until I got the 6000 and 600 levels I was looking for. An initial 30% position would allow me the ability to make some money if the market did go higher, and also give me the flexibility to add more exposure if the market continued lower, as it did. As the market continued lower over the last two weeks, I moved my long position to 40%, then 55% at the market low. This leaves me with a 45% cash position now.
It had become very clear to me that this market was VERY oversold on a short-term basis. I feel like this market has a small vacuum of time to make a very substantial short term rally. All the bad news from the last earnings season is in the past. The market was VERY oversold. Tax refunds should be arriving soon which may find its way into the market. Americans have suddenly started to save instead of spend. The market is representing a short-term value.
For these reasons, I feel that the market could see a very nice rally between now and the beginning of the next round of earnings. If you haven't heard this before, you need to write this down and post it next to your trading desk. THE BIGGEST RALLIES HAPPEN DURING BEAR MARKETS. Not only are they big rallies, but they happen quickly. I'm going to put out another target for the market in this post. That target is an S&P 500 at a level of 875-925 by mid-April. I'm talking about a five-week move of about 35% (or about 20% higher from here).
Now for the bad news. Simultaneously with this move, you will see everyone jumping on the idea that the market bottom is in, the economy is surging, and all problems are now in the past. DO NOT BE FOOLED! This market is still very sick, and has a long way to go before our problems are behind us. The bottom line is that our economy has been fueled by easy credit and excessive debt since the 80's. Our economy is trying to correct itself back to normal. Unfortunately, our government is throwing money it doesn't have at the problem (our kids' future taxes). Congress is trying to tax and spend our way back into the easy-credit, high-debt lifestyle that we have become spoiled with. THIS WILL ONLY PROLONG THE PROBLEM! If we continue to nurse this problem with "band-aid" stimulus packages instead of letting Capitalism work like it was intended to, we will end up like Japan. (Expect 20-30 years of subpar growth).
I honestly feel like that is the path we are headed towards. Let's not forget, that prior to the First Great Depression (yes I did say the First), the DJIA topped out in 1929 at 386.1. It bottomed out 3 years later at 40.56 (about 90% lower). It took a full 25 years for the market to regain what it lost in 3 years. Although I do not think our market will lose 90% of its October 2007 peak, I would not be surprised if it takes more than a decade to see the DJIA back at the 14,000 level.
I'll end this rant with the thought that my original forecast of DJIA @ 6000 and S&P @ 600 may actually be a bit too high. I won't be lowering my forecast, but I won't be surprised if we blow through those levels a bit.
To sum up, expect another 20% to the upside over the next month, followed by more pain to the downside. It should go without saying that timing the market is a dangerous activity. For those who think it is impossible, you're not a trader. For those who study the market, keep a keen eye on money movements, and STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, you can make money in a market like this. Of course, I could be way off-base, but I'm willing to put my thoughts out there for your consumption, and yes, I am trading my accounts based on these predicted movements.
]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 06:38:26 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

For those of you following my articles at Seeking Alpha or on my blog, you know that I am fairly bearish on the market. In my government-TSP account (which has very few investment options), I have been hiding out in the G-Fund (like a Money Market Fund) since January 2008. Because of that, I have avoided most of the heavy losses in this market. In my IRA accounts and trading account, I have been mostly short the market, short banks, short real estate, and long gold (off and on). I'm filling you in on my personal account movements as it sets the tone for what I'm going to tell you in the next few paragraphs.

From all the articles/blogs I've read and the gurus I follow, I have felt for the last three months that this market would bottom out with the DJIA at around 5750-6250 and the S&P in a range of 575-625. I'm still not sure when I think this bottom will occur. I've said all along that I felt our economy (housing, jobs, consumer demand, etc) would not recover until 2011. The stock market tends to lead the economy by 6-9 months during normal recessions. Of course, this is NOT a normal recession, which makes timing a market bottom very difficult.
Based on these soft targets for a bottom, I started moving some retirement funds from the cash side to the long side when the Dow hit 7200 about two weeks ago. I started with a 30% position, leaving 70% in cash. Being realistic about my bottom-calling ability made me realize that I would miss a potential up move if I held out until I got the 6000 and 600 levels I was looking for. An initial 30% position would allow me the ability to make some money if the market did go higher, and also give me the flexibility to add more exposure if the market continued lower, as it did. As the market continued lower over the last two weeks, I moved my long position to 40%, then 55% at the market low. This leaves me with a 45% cash position now.
It had become very clear to me that this market was VERY oversold on a short-term basis. I feel like this market has a small vacuum of time to make a very substantial short term rally. All the bad news from the last earnings season is in the past. The market was VERY oversold. Tax refunds should be arriving soon which may find its way into the market. Americans have suddenly started to save instead of spend. The market is representing a short-term value.
For these reasons, I feel that the market could see a very nice rally between now and the beginning of the next round of earnings. If you haven't heard this before, you need to write this down and post it next to your trading desk. THE BIGGEST RALLIES HAPPEN DURING BEAR MARKETS. Not only are they big rallies, but they happen quickly. I'm going to put out another target for the market in this post. That target is an S&P 500 at a level of 875-925 by mid-April. I'm talking about a five-week move of about 35% (or about 20% higher from here).
Now for the bad news. Simultaneously with this move, you will see everyone jumping on the idea that the market bottom is in, the economy is surging, and all problems are now in the past. DO NOT BE FOOLED! This market is still very sick, and has a long way to go before our problems are behind us. The bottom line is that our economy has been fueled by easy credit and excessive debt since the 80's. Our economy is trying to correct itself back to normal. Unfortunately, our government is throwing money it doesn't have at the problem (our kids' future taxes). Congress is trying to tax and spend our way back into the easy-credit, high-debt lifestyle that we have become spoiled with. THIS WILL ONLY PROLONG THE PROBLEM! If we continue to nurse this problem with "band-aid" stimulus packages instead of letting Capitalism work like it was intended to, we will end up like Japan. (Expect 20-30 years of subpar growth).
I honestly feel like that is the path we are headed towards. Let's not forget, that prior to the First Great Depression (yes I did say the First), the DJIA topped out in 1929 at 386.1. It bottomed out 3 years later at 40.56 (about 90% lower). It took a full 25 years for the market to regain what it lost in 3 years. Although I do not think our market will lose 90% of its October 2007 peak, I would not be surprised if it takes more than a decade to see the DJIA back at the 14,000 level.
I'll end this rant with the thought that my original forecast of DJIA @ 6000 and S&P @ 600 may actually be a bit too high. I won't be lowering my forecast, but I won't be surprised if we blow through those levels a bit.
To sum up, expect another 20% to the upside over the next month, followed by more pain to the downside. It should go without saying that timing the market is a dangerous activity. For those who think it is impossible, you're not a trader. For those who study the market, keep a keen eye on money movements, and STUDY, STUDY, STUDY, you can make money in a market like this. Of course, I could be way off-base, but I'm willing to put my thoughts out there for your consumption, and yes, I am trading my accounts based on these predicted movements.

Complete Story »]]> DIA QQQQ SPY Matt Callow Nine Ways to Profit in 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112963-nine-ways-to-profit-in-2009?source=feed 112963 The Big Picture:

Resist the urge to jump into this sick market. Anyone looking at 2008's near 40% decline will feel tempted to jump in at these bargain-basement levels. If you reference the year 1930 (one year after the start of the Great Depression), you may think twice. Despite all the fiscal and monetary stimulus being thrown at our economic mess, the US, and the world economies will look a lot like they did in 2008.

]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 06:02:10 -0500 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

The Big Picture:

Resist the urge to jump into this sick market. Anyone looking at 2008's near 40% decline will feel tempted to jump in at these bargain-basement levels. If you reference the year 1930 (one year after the start of the Great Depression), you may think twice. Despite all the fiscal and monetary stimulus being thrown at our economic mess, the US, and the world economies will look a lot like they did in 2008.


Complete Story »]]> DGP EFU FAZ FXP GLD OIL REW SCC SCO SRS USO Matt Callow Eight Themes for 2008: How Did They Do? http://seekingalpha.com/article/112962-eight-themes-for-2008-how-did-they-do?source=feed 112962 Well, 2008 has closed, and as it turned out, it was one of the worst years on record for the stock market. Although our politicians and news media would have you believe that no one saw this coming, I could see "the writing on the wall" as early as the summer of 2007. That is why I decided to post about how to make a profit amidst the turmoil that was to come. How did I do? How's nearly tripling your money sound? Okay, enough back patting, let's review...

On December 31st, 2007, I posted my eight themes for 2008. Several were right on the money, several were not. Let's start with what I did not expect to see in 2008.

]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 05:53:53 -0500 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Well, 2008 has closed, and as it turned out, it was one of the worst years on record for the stock market. Although our politicians and news media would have you believe that no one saw this coming, I could see "the writing on the wall" as early as the summer of 2007. That is why I decided to post about how to make a profit amidst the turmoil that was to come. How did I do? How's nearly tripling your money sound? Okay, enough back patting, let's review...

On December 31st, 2007, I posted my eight themes for 2008. Several were right on the money, several were not. Let's start with what I did not expect to see in 2008.


Complete Story »]]> DBA FXB FXC FXI FXY GLD GSG PGJ SRS Matt Callow My Eight Themes for 2008 Are Paying Off http://seekingalpha.com/article/101146-my-eight-themes-for-2008-are-paying-off?source=feed 101146 On Dec 31st, 2007, I set forth eight themes that I thought would make money in 2008. We divided a fictitious $1M between the eight themes. Over the last year, I have led you step by step through the moves I made in each theme. Here are the results so far...

Theme 1: Long China. (Down 44%) Hindsight is 20-20, but we obviously picked the wrong time to ride this bubble. Here's how our original $125,000 has fared:

]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 11:38:14 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

On Dec 31st, 2007, I set forth eight themes that I thought would make money in 2008. We divided a fictitious $1M between the eight themes. Over the last year, I have led you step by step through the moves I made in each theme. Here are the results so far...

Theme 1: Long China. (Down 44%) Hindsight is 20-20, but we obviously picked the wrong time to ride this bubble. Here's how our original $125,000 has fared:


Complete Story »]]> DBA FXB FXC FXI FXY GLD PGJ RWX Matt Callow Current Crisis Trading on Par with Beginning of Great Depression http://seekingalpha.com/article/99180-current-crisis-trading-on-par-with-beginning-of-great-depression?source=feed 99180 Today marks the one year anniversary of the all-time closing high set in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On October 9th, 2007, the DJIA set an Intra-day high of 14279.96. One year later, we are off 35.8% (as of midday Thursday). Since this current situation is currently being compared to the Great Depression, let's do some comparisons...

On September 3rd, 1929, the DJIA reached a record intra-day high of 386.1. One year later, September 3rd, 1930, it had fallen 38.5% Notice how closely that parallels the current crisis.

]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:28:07 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Today marks the one year anniversary of the all-time closing high set in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On October 9th, 2007, the DJIA set an Intra-day high of 14279.96. One year later, we are off 35.8% (as of midday Thursday). Since this current situation is currently being compared to the Great Depression, let's do some comparisons...

On September 3rd, 1929, the DJIA reached a record intra-day high of 386.1. One year later, September 3rd, 1930, it had fallen 38.5% Notice how closely that parallels the current crisis.


Complete Story »]]> DIA Matt Callow The Longs are Getting Squeezed http://seekingalpha.com/article/99026-the-longs-are-getting-squeezed?source=feed 99026 Why are our banks failing? Obviously, it's the result of unrelenting traders shorting the companies for personal gain. How can any bank survive when so much money is betting against it? Surely being over-leveraged to the tune of 32:1 in many cases has nothing to do with it. Surely exorbitant senior management pay couldn't be a reason. Certainly pushing risky loans on borrowers with shady credit has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Unable to cope with the truth, and unwilling to take the blame, the banking industry has resorted to finger-pointing at short sellers. Not only has their finger-pointing allowed them to deflect much of the blame, but they've even convinced the SEC that short-selling is the culprit behind the financial meltdown. In what will surely become a case study in what not to do, the SEC banned short selling in over 900 financial stocks. Obviously, they figured that would be the finger in the dike that saved our financial world. Despite the ban, and a not too subtle $700 Billion taxpayer-funded bailout, the financials continue to hemorrhage capital. Obviously it's the short sellers. Oh yeah, there are no short sellers.

]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 05:50:01 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Why are our banks failing? Obviously, it's the result of unrelenting traders shorting the companies for personal gain. How can any bank survive when so much money is betting against it? Surely being over-leveraged to the tune of 32:1 in many cases has nothing to do with it. Surely exorbitant senior management pay couldn't be a reason. Certainly pushing risky loans on borrowers with shady credit has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Unable to cope with the truth, and unwilling to take the blame, the banking industry has resorted to finger-pointing at short sellers. Not only has their finger-pointing allowed them to deflect much of the blame, but they've even convinced the SEC that short-selling is the culprit behind the financial meltdown. In what will surely become a case study in what not to do, the SEC banned short selling in over 900 financial stocks. Obviously, they figured that would be the finger in the dike that saved our financial world. Despite the ban, and a not too subtle $700 Billion taxpayer-funded bailout, the financials continue to hemorrhage capital. Obviously it's the short sellers. Oh yeah, there are no short sellers.


Complete Story »]]> IYG XLF Matt Callow The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It http://seekingalpha.com/article/71875-the-global-recession-s-here-how-to-profit-from-it?source=feed 71875

Snap out of it folks, the global recession has begun. Your options going forward are 1) continue to believe the nonsensical high-fivers who cast aside the obvious and routinely parade their Bullish cases on CNBC, or 2) position yourself now to rake in the spoils of your lesser informed investing brethren.

Option 1 investors fall for the standard "position yourself defensively" line touted by the so-called professionals. Two to three years from now, Option 1 investors will be looking back to this time and wonder why they allowed their accounts to melt away. Option 2 investors are not happy with mere "capital preservation". Option 2 investors will take the bull bear by the horns ears and ride their accounts to unprecedented levels. Outperforming the market is exponentially easier in a down market than it is in an up market. Don't allow yourself to be paralyzed by the headlines, or misled by the misled.

]]> Thu, 10 Apr 2008 10:54:00 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Snap out of it folks, the global recession has begun. Your options going forward are 1) continue to believe the nonsensical high-fivers who cast aside the obvious and routinely parade their Bullish cases on CNBC, or 2) position yourself now to rake in the spoils of your lesser informed investing brethren.

Option 1 investors fall for the standard "position yourself defensively" line touted by the so-called professionals. Two to three years from now, Option 1 investors will be looking back to this time and wonder why they allowed their accounts to melt away. Option 2 investors are not happy with mere "capital preservation". Option 2 investors will take the bull bear by the horns ears and ride their accounts to unprecedented levels. Outperforming the market is exponentially easier in a down market than it is in an up market. Don't allow yourself to be paralyzed by the headlines, or misled by the misled.


Complete Story »]]> AIQ CCK CPY DF DOG DXD JRT PSQ QID REW SRS Matt Callow Tweaking My Portfolio in a 'Substantive and Timely' Manner http://seekingalpha.com/article/59922-tweaking-my-portfolio-in-a-substantive-and-timely-manner?source=feed 59922 Last week, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke promised to make "substantive and timely" interest rate cuts to deal with slowing growth in the US. Although I hate to act on rumors, there are plenty of traders that think the Fed may make a move early next week, to cut the interest rate. This would be an inter-meeting move and could have a big effect on the market.

With Bernanke scheduled to talk to Congress this week, a pre-meeting move would not surprise me. If this does happen, the dollar could be heading further south quickly. Even if it doesn't happen, speculation will build toward the next scheduled meeting at the end of the month, and the dollar will drift lower anyway.

]]> Sun, 13 Jan 2008 06:35:41 -0500 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Last week, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke promised to make "substantive and timely" interest rate cuts to deal with slowing growth in the US. Although I hate to act on rumors, there are plenty of traders that think the Fed may make a move early next week, to cut the interest rate. This would be an inter-meeting move and could have a big effect on the market.

With Bernanke scheduled to talk to Congress this week, a pre-meeting move would not surprise me. If this does happen, the dollar could be heading further south quickly. Even if it doesn't happen, speculation will build toward the next scheduled meeting at the end of the month, and the dollar will drift lower anyway.


Complete Story »]]> GLD SRS Matt Callow Matt Callow's 2008 Investment Themes: So Far, So Good http://seekingalpha.com/article/59153-matt-callow-s-2008-investment-themes-so-far-so-good?source=feed 59153 Did you follow the abysmal market performance this week and watch your hard earned capital slowly (or rapidly) melt away? It amazes me how many professional analysts and money managers acknowledge the rapidly approaching U.S recession, then offer "defensive" tips to preserve as much capital as possible. Why play defense in this market when you can use this bad beat market to your advantage. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back after just one week (okay, maybe a little) but the Aggressive Trader Portfolio that I suggested last week laid out 8 themes that are doing pretty well so far.

As a benchmark, here are the one week (12/31/07 - 01/04/08) performances of the major US indices:

]]> Sun, 06 Jan 2008 09:25:16 -0500 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Did you follow the abysmal market performance this week and watch your hard earned capital slowly (or rapidly) melt away? It amazes me how many professional analysts and money managers acknowledge the rapidly approaching U.S recession, then offer "defensive" tips to preserve as much capital as possible. Why play defense in this market when you can use this bad beat market to your advantage. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back after just one week (okay, maybe a little) but the Aggressive Trader Portfolio that I suggested last week laid out 8 themes that are doing pretty well so far.

As a benchmark, here are the one week (12/31/07 - 01/04/08) performances of the major US indices:


Complete Story »]]> ADY AGU CAT CPO DBA EWC FXC FXY HOGS JJA JJG KMGB LNDC MTW OFI POT RJA RWR SDTH SNDA SYY VNQ Matt Callow 8 Key Investment Themes for 2008 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58674-8-key-investment-themes-for-2008?source=feed 58674 Like many investors, I want big returns over short time frames. This led me to over-analyzing technical indicators in an attempt to make a quick buck. I've made hundreds of trades that just had no fundamental basis to them at all. My blog, The Monthly Stock Portfolio, was set up to force myself to look at long-term (year or more) value plays. The primary focus was finding low PEG ratio stocks (low P/E ... with high growth forecasts). I added several other fundamental screens to that to pick out the cream of the crop (at least as I saw it). It wasn't totally mechanical, as I would not pick stocks that were in sectors that I was bearish or even neutral on, but only sectors that I was bullish on. So the purpose of this post is to set the ship's course for 2008.

Primarily, I will lay out the areas that I believe will do well over the next 12 months. In that respect, I will use these principles to guide me in the selection of stocks for my The Monthly Stock Portfolio as I go forward. But I will also introduce a new portfolio. For simplicity sake, I will call it the "Aggressive Trader Portfolio". It is in order to appease my trading side a little, but to do so on a fundamental basis. This portfolio is for the more aggressive investor and will require the ability to trade stocks, options, and commodities. As always, only invest what you can afford to lose, and trade at your own risk.

]]> Mon, 31 Dec 2007 12:45:00 -0500 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

Like many investors, I want big returns over short time frames. This led me to over-analyzing technical indicators in an attempt to make a quick buck. I've made hundreds of trades that just had no fundamental basis to them at all. My blog, The Monthly Stock Portfolio, was set up to force myself to look at long-term (year or more) value plays. The primary focus was finding low PEG ratio stocks (low P/E ... with high growth forecasts). I added several other fundamental screens to that to pick out the cream of the crop (at least as I saw it). It wasn't totally mechanical, as I would not pick stocks that were in sectors that I was bearish or even neutral on, but only sectors that I was bullish on. So the purpose of this post is to set the ship's course for 2008.

Primarily, I will lay out the areas that I believe will do well over the next 12 months. In that respect, I will use these principles to guide me in the selection of stocks for my The Monthly Stock Portfolio as I go forward. But I will also introduce a new portfolio. For simplicity sake, I will call it the "Aggressive Trader Portfolio". It is in order to appease my trading side a little, but to do so on a fundamental basis. This portfolio is for the more aggressive investor and will require the ability to trade stocks, options, and commodities. As always, only invest what you can afford to lose, and trade at your own risk.


Complete Story »]]> ADY AGU CAT CPO DBA EWC FXC FXY HOGS JJA JJG KMGB LNDC MTW OFI POT RJA RWR SDTH SNDA SYY VNQ Matt Callow Landec Corporation to Bloom in 2008 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58677-landec-corporation-to-bloom-in-2008?source=feed 58677 I'm going to add Landec Corp. (LNDC) to our portfolio a little early as I like the price right now. This stock will be purchased for the portfolio at the opening price today, Monday, December 31, 2007.

]]> Mon, 31 Dec 2007 06:51:14 -0500 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

I'm going to add Landec Corp. (LNDC) to our portfolio a little early as I like the price right now. This stock will be purchased for the portfolio at the opening price today, Monday, December 31, 2007.


Complete Story »]]> LNDC Matt Callow Tidewater Inc.: Setting Itself Up For The Future http://seekingalpha.com/article/48292-tidewater-inc-setting-itself-up-for-the-future?source=feed 48292 When I think of a shipping company involved in the oil business, I think of large tankers full of oil, moving it between the producers and the consumers. Until I conducted further research, I assumed Tidewater (TDW), listed in the shipping industry, was an oil tanker company. I was quite wrong.

TDW is focused on using its fleet of 463 vessels to service the oil field industry. For all the Exploration and Production work being done in the world’s waters, there is a good chance that TDW has a hand in it somewhere. TDW’s fleet is used to support everything from supply and personnel transport, to anchor handling, to towing, to construction and maintenance, to pipe and cable laying, to diving, to cargo hauling, and even 3-D seismic exploration work. Here are some pictures from their website:

]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2007 05:49:35 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

When I think of a shipping company involved in the oil business, I think of large tankers full of oil, moving it between the producers and the consumers. Until I conducted further research, I assumed Tidewater (TDW), listed in the shipping industry, was an oil tanker company. I was quite wrong.

TDW is focused on using its fleet of 463 vessels to service the oil field industry. For all the Exploration and Production work being done in the world’s waters, there is a good chance that TDW has a hand in it somewhere. TDW’s fleet is used to support everything from supply and personnel transport, to anchor handling, to towing, to construction and maintenance, to pipe and cable laying, to diving, to cargo hauling, and even 3-D seismic exploration work. Here are some pictures from their website:


Complete Story »]]> TDW Matt Callow Hercules Offshore: Getting to Know a Hero http://seekingalpha.com/article/48116-hercules-offshore-getting-to-know-a-hero?source=feed 48116 For those of you following Hercules Offshore (HERO), you already know that they "provide shallow-water drilling and liftboat services to the oil and natural gas exploration and production industry in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and internationally. Its liftboats provide a range of offshore support services, including platform maintenance, platform construction, well intervention, and decommissioning services. The company provides its services to integrated energy companies, and independent oil and natural gas operators. As of February 5, 2007, it owned a fleet of 9 jackup rigs and 64 liftboats. The company was founded in 2004 as Hercules Offshore, LLC and changed its name to Hercules Offshore, Inc. in 2005. Hercules Offshore, Inc. is based in Houston, Texas."

But let's take a deeper look at this small company to see if it is worthy of your investment dollars.

]]> Tue, 25 Sep 2007 05:00:13 -0400 Matt Callow Matt Callow submits:

For those of you following Hercules Offshore (HERO), you already know that they "provide shallow-water drilling and liftboat services to the oil and natural gas exploration and production industry in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and internationally. Its liftboats provide a range of offshore support services, including platform maintenance, platform construction, well intervention, and decommissioning services. The company provides its services to integrated energy companies, and independent oil and natural gas operators. As of February 5, 2007, it owned a fleet of 9 jackup rigs and 64 liftboats. The company was founded in 2004 as Hercules Offshore, LLC and changed its name to Hercules Offshore, Inc. in 2005. Hercules Offshore, Inc. is based in Houston, Texas."

But let's take a deeper look at this small company to see if it is worthy of your investment dollars.


Complete Story »]]> HERO Matt Callow