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Matt Callow

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  • Playing Inverse Volatility for Easy Gains [View article]
    All investments work this way. If stock XYZ loses 20% today, then gains 20% tomorrow, it's a net loss of 4%. Gain 30%, lose 30%, is a net loss of 9%. Any investment that is tied to an index (or another ETF) that moves RAPIDLY will be affected even more. In this case, XIV and VXX are both affected by the compounding decay, more so than a more steady stock like say, WMT.
    Aug 23 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strike Three for Geithner Today? [View article]
    Big K> A Permabear? Really? You must not have read my last article. I don't see "doomed" or "hopeless" anywhere in my article. I agree, the economy will recover, just not in the near future. I refuse to go along with the main-stream-media and hope and wish this market to higher highs. The reality is what it is. If you want to be a buy-and-holder at this point, go for it. I hope that plan works out for you.
    Mar 23 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009 [View article]
    You can find updates on my blog: themonthlystock.blogsp.... I just updated my results for these themes tonight. I'll post it here as well:


    Just two months into the new year and we're cruising nicely with this year's Themes. Eight of our nine themes are up an average of 57%, with one theme down modestly:


    Theme 1 (Short Banks): Up 100%
    Theme 2 (Short Oil): Up 143%
    Theme 3 (Short Tech): Up 13%
    Theme 4 (Long Gold): Up 24%
    Theme 5 (Short Real Estate): Up 37%
    Theme 6 (Short China): Up 31%
    Theme 7 (Short Euro Banks): Up 69%
    Theme 8 (Short Consumers): Up 39%
    Theme 9 (Short Toyota): Down 10%

    Total portfolio return since January 1st, 2009: Up 49.54%

    Mar 3 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009 [View article]
    Update time...two weeks into the New Year and this portfolio is up an average of 16%. Seven out of Nine predictions are in the green. Maybe I should sell now, stuff my mattress and lock in a nice 16% gain on the year. But how fun would that be?

    I did say in my predictions that I would be trading in and out of these themes during the year. With that said, I will be making some changes at tomorrow's open. Please see my blog for details.
    Jan 15 12:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009 [View article]
    onlyformoney> My oil call was based on my belief that we are just beginning the Global Recession, and that the deflation we saw in commodities is not over. Making any predictions regarding oil is risky as it is very difficult to foresee political events, which have a huge impact on the price of oil. Oil is getting elevated by two primary political factors right now, Israel fighting Hamas, and Russia pinching natural gas supplies. I expect the first event has less than a few weeks to go before it de-escalates. Russia, on the other hand, is a bit of a wild card and could carry on their actions for some time. In my opinion, barring any major new players joining the Israel/Hamas conflict, oil will begin heading south after Israel feels it has accomplished what it set out for and begins withdrawing troops.
    Jan 6 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009 [View article]
    For those who have called this strategy "suicidal" or "irresponsible" thanks for your opinion. Maybe I should have been more clear in my article. This is called an "Aggressive Trader Portfolio" for a reason. I certainly don't advocate anybody sticking nest eggs into this strategy. These are speculative trades (like all predictions) and should be traded as such. Like I said in the article, do your own research and invest at your own risk.
    Jan 4 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009 [View article]
    For those who have called this strategy "suicidal" or "irresponsible" thanks for your opinion. Maybe I should have been more clear in my article. This is called an "Aggressive Trader Portfolio" for a reason. I certainly don't advocate anybody sticking nest eggs into this strategy. These are speculative trades (like all predictions) and should be traded as such. Like I said in the article, do your own research and invest at your own risk.
    Jan 4 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eight Themes for 2008: How Did They Do? [View article]
    I made an error regarding Theme 3 that I need to clarify. Although my overall results and theme results did not change, I actually predicted the Canadian Dollar would rise against the US Dollar in 2008. Therefore, I only got four of eight themes right.
    Jan 2 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Eight Themes for 2008 Are Paying Off [View article]
    Deepfryer999> Sorry for not replying sooner. The provided picture shows how much that trade has made since the last change. I have been in and out of the British Pound options all year and you can see all the calls on my blog. The original value placed in this theme was $125,000. It finished the year at $1,500,166.88 for a gain of 1100%. If you want evidence, you'll find it on my blog.


    On Oct 23 08:23 AM Deepfryer999 wrote:

    > How do we know theme 4 is really up 513%? The only data he provides
    > shows it being up 43.83%.
    Jan 2 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Longs are Getting Squeezed [View article]
    Thursday's train wreck??? Delivered! Dow -678 points.
    Oct 9 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Current Crisis Trading on Par with Beginning of Great Depression [View article]
    FYI, I wrote this article when the Dow was down about 100 points today. The fact that it fell another 578 prior to the close emphasizes the point of this article even more.
    Oct 9 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [View article]
    Here's my response to two of the posts:

    AnonGeneral: Shorting the Russell 2000 should be just as profitable as shorting the Nasdaq or the Dow. However, small caps tend to lead large caps when coming out of a downturn, so I would expect the Russell 2000 to be the first of those three indexes to turn positive.

    globalmacro: I think it's a bit unfair to jump on one bad pick. For the record, I have only written articles on Seeking Alpha for three stocks. If you visit my blog, you will see that my Monthly Stock Portfolio is up 3.92% since it's inception on October 1st. The S&P 500 is down 11% over the same period. That's nearly a 15% outperformance in just six months. When you go to my blog, feel free to see my Motley Fool Caps Ranking. I currently outrank over 98% of the other stock pickers on that site. I'm more than willing to admit a bad pick, but let's get the rest of the facts on the table before you go around trying to smear my reputation.
    Apr 11 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed is Deflating: 10 Reasons Why [View article]
    You are a wise man.
    Mar 29 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold and Silver: Is the Correction Over? [View article]
    Solar stocks are the next bubble to burst. IMHO.
    Mar 29 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Sentiment and Market Returns: Now's the Time to Be Bold [View article]
    Great article, and in general, I agree with the relationship of when sentiment dives, it's time to buy. However, your six historical examples are based on when negative sentiment peaked. We don't know when or where it will peak this time around, so I think you are comparing apples to oranges. In the example where negative sentiment peaked at -37%, I wonder how they would have done if they bought when sentiment was at -15%???

    Finally, I think the internet delivers info so fast today, that sentiment moves much faster than it ever did before. We can get to that -15% today, much quicker than we did in the early 90's.
    Mar 29 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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