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Matt Chessen  

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  • U.S. Recession Odds: 100%? [View article]
    And now the probability is around 3%, which shows why people shouldn't write alarmist articles like this which don't adequately explain what the data means.

    http://bit.ly/11Iug2n
    Dec 3, 2012. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Acquire Twitter [View article]
    Twitter is banned in China, but many Chinese users use VPN to access it anyway. Ditto with Facebook and others. This is really the point. Governments can try their hardest to turn these things off, but people will still find a way to use them. The only way to truly sever access is to shut it off at the source. And that means China would need to ask for it to be shut off, putting Apple, or any other acquirer, in a sticky position.
    Dec 2, 2012. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Depression, Part 2: Will The Future Follow The Past? [View article]
    This is why I cancelled my subscription to Dave's etf digest. He is a perma-bull whose model portfolios have consistently underperformed the market - badly.

    Nice guy, and often amusing, but comparing charts when the fundamentals are totally different is just fear mongering and silly.
    Nov 16, 2012. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple On January 18 [View article]
    Your argument is about as sophisticated as saying 'the sky is blue because of scattering due to atmospheric gases.' Sounds great to people who know nothing about options or the market, but obvious to everyone.

    The author obviously knows little about the options market so readers beware of his learned conclusions.
    Nov 13, 2012. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple On January 18 [View article]
    Silly article and nothing Travis Lewis hasn't written about extensively. But the argument is flawed. By your logic opening new calls drives the stock price up. Well, look at the open interest for Jan since the 9/21 peak.

    Open interest has exploded since September. So market makers would have been buying a huge number of shares to hedge. Why hasn't that pushed the stock price back up?
    Nov 13, 2012. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Recession Odds: 100%? [View article]
    Not so fast. Chauvet's model is more accurate and is at 15% for August. I spoke to him, and with the data at hand, Sept is ~10%.
    http://bit.ly/S0Eftr

    His index is more accurate than the one the Fed uses and has been higher without a recession
    Nov 8, 2012. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    Shhhhhush! Don't tell people this. If everyone knows then we won't be able to profit from it ;)
    Nov 2, 2012. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    Interesting report from WSJ that Apple may be working WITH cable companies to make Apple TV an approved set-top box. Interesting. Cable companies are only going to go for this if they think it will keep them from hemorrhaging content customers to streaming/downloadable systems:

    http://on.wsj.com/RVIb0S
    Aug 16, 2012. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    Sure they could. Cable companies will have a very hard time blocking access via the internet - Federal Regulators would frown on that as uncompetitive and there are too many alternate channels.
    Jun 5, 2012. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    The implication is that if this industry doesn't adapt with regulatory overhaul, it will die. Once users can pay for any channel anywhere, even if those channels aren't currently on cable, content channels will emerge to address that demand. Those channels will undermine the economics of the current cable model and make it untenable, forcing the industry to adapt or die.
    May 25, 2012. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    The Internet provides a much richer distribution network than cable TV with a much higher revenue upside. If HBO can make more money with apps, which it can, it will change its business model
    May 25, 2012. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    You might be surprised. What Apple will do is upend the market, and make channels not currently available through your cable provider economically viable through apps. This will siphon revenue from traditional channels and pressure them to either change their business model or adopt the app model. And 3-5 years isn't a long time...if the content providers jettison cable companies in 5 years, that's a revolution.
    May 25, 2012. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    Totally disagree as this is contrary to modern economics. When you allow any startup to deliver their content to a TV user for a small fee, you are going to see a proliferation of channels and content, and the overall quality will increase, even if quality on individual channels decreases. If this wasn't true, then AOL and Yahoo would still rule the internet.

    Just look at what happened with music - now any artist can sell their music direct to their consumer and the number of music channels and artists available has skyrocketed.
    May 22, 2012. 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    But do content providers really make most of the revenue, or is the middleman (cable companies) sucking most of it up? I think it's the latter. If you look at the numbers, a few content providers like ESPN have huge pricing power, but most of the others are practically begging to be carried by the cable providers.

    I agree that if you watch many channels, you could wind up paying more under an app model. But I suspect most users would prefer only paying for the small number of channels they watch. And the cost might/might actually go down because content providers could provide customized advertising through iAd which would garner more $/eyeball (because it's custom) which could offset subscription fees.
    May 22, 2012. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    Well maybe if you read it you'd realize that it makes sense. :)

    Apple is a smart company - they see this opportunity...
    May 22, 2012. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
40 Comments
63 Likes