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Matt Chessen  

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  • Why Apple Won't Acquire Twitter [View article]
    Twitter is banned in China, but many Chinese users use VPN to access it anyway. Ditto with Facebook and others. This is really the point. Governments can try their hardest to turn these things off, but people will still find a way to use them. The only way to truly sever access is to shut it off at the source. And that means China would need to ask for it to be shut off, putting Apple, or any other acquirer, in a sticky position.
    Dec 2, 2012. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Recession Odds: 100%? [View article]
    Not so fast. Chauvet's model is more accurate and is at 15% for August. I spoke to him, and with the data at hand, Sept is ~10%.
    http://bit.ly/S0Eftr

    His index is more accurate than the one the Fed uses and has been higher without a recession
    Nov 8, 2012. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    The Internet provides a much richer distribution network than cable TV with a much higher revenue upside. If HBO can make more money with apps, which it can, it will change its business model
    May 25, 2012. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    You might be surprised. What Apple will do is upend the market, and make channels not currently available through your cable provider economically viable through apps. This will siphon revenue from traditional channels and pressure them to either change their business model or adopt the app model. And 3-5 years isn't a long time...if the content providers jettison cable companies in 5 years, that's a revolution.
    May 25, 2012. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    But do content providers really make most of the revenue, or is the middleman (cable companies) sucking most of it up? I think it's the latter. If you look at the numbers, a few content providers like ESPN have huge pricing power, but most of the others are practically begging to be carried by the cable providers.

    I agree that if you watch many channels, you could wind up paying more under an app model. But I suspect most users would prefer only paying for the small number of channels they watch. And the cost might/might actually go down because content providers could provide customized advertising through iAd which would garner more $/eyeball (because it's custom) which could offset subscription fees.
    May 22, 2012. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    I agree it's going to be a fight. But what the Cable companies thought was if they controlled the content and the delivery mechanism, they would have a protected market - just like the record companies. But the Internet fundamentally changes that because 1) you can totally bypass the cable companies and 2) Apple's ecosystem is far broader than the cable companies'.

    Sure there will be a fight and cable companies will probably try to throttle Internet access for video which competes with their cable packages, which will be shot down by the FCC or courts as anti-competitive. This won't be an instant revolution, but it will happen.
    May 22, 2012. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    Correct - they could resist, like the record companies first resisted iTunes - but they'd eventually see the writing on the wall. HBO and Showtime might hold out as premium services for a time, but the proliferation of alternate app-delivered programming channels would eventually erode the value of those entities to the point where they surrendered.

    If they're smart, they know that their future is in content creation, not delivery.
    May 22, 2012. 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple TV Will Revolutionize Content Delivery And Advertising [View article]
    They don't provide internet access right? If so, then I don't see good things in their long-term future, although they could always gobble dwindling share from the cable companies.
    May 22, 2012. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Integrated Energy: Investigators and KPMG Begin Sorting Through Evidence [View article]
    Actually Little, I did contact Susan in IR, and she indicated they move biodiesel by truck and rail.

    Your story is developing holes
    Apr 20, 2011. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Integrated Energy: Investigators and KPMG Begin Sorting Through Evidence [View article]
    BTW someone asked why the shorts would have an incentive to be so active in providing information. If the stock really is a dog, then why not just short it, release the facts, and then let the stock fall as it will?

    They probably have an incentive to undercut the stock on the way down because, even if they're right (which I'm not confident of) the value of CBEH is likely not zero. But if they can clobber it down close to zero, and it has a value of $2, then they can reverse their position and make a chunk of $ on the upside. Win-win.

    Otherwise you are correct, they have no incentive to keep feeding information. No financial professional is going to spend the time unless they get something out of it. Unless they are altruists (LOL!) they have a reason for going beyond the release of the original reports to quickly drive the stock down.

    And they could also be a complete fraud. The author already noted he lives in China. Does anyone really think the US could ever prosecute such a person? What if he lives somewhere else with no rule of law? These anonymous dumpers will never be prosecuted no matter how big the fraud they generate. They just cash out their short position, disappear and come back later as another anonymous poster.

    This is why our society runs on people using their own names. Mr. Little, you are a coward. And if you are lying, mark my words, you will face the wrath of those you have defrauded.
    Apr 13, 2011. 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Turning Japanese: The Audacity of Reality (Part 3 of 3) [View article]
    So my question is: what investments did well during the Japanese 'lost 20.'

    The broader market was stagnant, but somebody made money. Who?
    Jan 31, 2009. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Depression, Part 2: Will The Future Follow The Past? [View article]
    This is why I cancelled my subscription to Dave's etf digest. He is a perma-bull whose model portfolios have consistently underperformed the market - badly.

    Nice guy, and often amusing, but comparing charts when the fundamentals are totally different is just fear mongering and silly.
    Nov 16, 2012. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple On January 18 [View article]
    Your argument is about as sophisticated as saying 'the sky is blue because of scattering due to atmospheric gases.' Sounds great to people who know nothing about options or the market, but obvious to everyone.

    The author obviously knows little about the options market so readers beware of his learned conclusions.
    Nov 13, 2012. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple On January 18 [View article]
    Silly article and nothing Travis Lewis hasn't written about extensively. But the argument is flawed. By your logic opening new calls drives the stock price up. Well, look at the open interest for Jan since the 9/21 peak.

    Open interest has exploded since September. So market makers would have been buying a huge number of shares to hedge. Why hasn't that pushed the stock price back up?
    Nov 13, 2012. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Apple To Surge In Coming Months [View article]
    Shhhhhush! Don't tell people this. If everyone knows then we won't be able to profit from it ;)
    Nov 2, 2012. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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