J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
I will be quadrupling my stake as soon as vornado sells. At these prices, it will be an easy ten bagger. This thing has Bill Ackman and Ron Johnson's support. It real 850 million in the bank after the first week in feb. 700M in non core assets that can be sold off. It has 11B in replacement real estate built up across the country. Most of those "losses" in 2012 were essentially accounting charges (paying Mike Ullman, severance of 150M, selling old inventory at a loss, severage earlier in the year, depreciating the shops and fixtures)....so really, all it created were tax losses to be carried forward.
JCP can operate a 500M loss for the next 6 or 7 years, and nothing would happen to it. It is like sears in this regard.
Unfortunately for bears, they no longer have crazy couponing years to compare to. They will have to cover as the comps are very very very very very easy this year....especially now they have new shops, new brands and new partners this spring......coupons agains, weekly sales....walk into any jcp across the country...the traffic has to be almost double what it was last year.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Joe Fresh generates over $1000 per square foot in new york.
Sephora does over $500 Per square foot now in JCP.
JCP womens does around $300 per square foot in the first couple months of launch.
Can Joe Fresh do over $200 per square foot? Well, yeah...it can do much much much more....it can probably do $400 Per square foot. Look at it online....Joe Fresh is selling out like hotcakes at a state fair.
Long term, you bring enough exciting brands over the next few years...JCP make as much as specialty stores do in malls because thats what JCP will essentially be.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Turnarounds/restructur... take time. Next week, the real first new big brand launch arrives in Joe Fresh in a new shop. In early April, 4 new shops and a coffee bar in stores...jonathan adler, martha celebration, bodum, and michael graves.....until the new product comes, don't judge. Plus, there will be sales and coupons....so just wait. Naysayers can bash JCP when analysts give up, but in 2 years, and this is trading north of 50 bucks a share, don't say that you called it.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
The other bits were not on Q4. I will give you some hints though.
First research theme is on real estate value by looking up property records and comparison commercial comps in the area recently. JCP real estate is very very very undervalued on the books. JCP should be more than double the value based on the real estate alone. Maybe a REIT would be a good idea. It is a very long process to look up each property...
The second piece of research is on JCP's unannounced partners. One in particular is such huge news that it would likely double the stock instantly if released publically. Makes alot of sense, but timing coincides with other announcments that everyone theorizes but still not announced pubically.
The third piece of research, well, why I am even responding to you. Those than write me can back up that I provide proof to all I saw from independent sources.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
Was a $17B retailer. Will get back there. Will get over $30B given some time. RJ predicted this last summer, as he said he needed to have sales come down and restore integrity to the store. $13 Billion is still pretty huge. $13 Billion in the upcoming year but with profitable merchandise with good gross margins. No more taking up floor space with excess inventory from years past. Margins are back. Customers are back from looking at stores each week the past month. Sales are back. New products are finally coming in.
The sales are done (20% off) for nationally branded merchandise like Gold Toe or Van Heusen that they are getting that consideration from the manufacturer. Or, they are doing it on internal merchandise that they adjusted 6 months ago when it was sourced was the "sale" price would be to protect gross margin.
The biggest learning curve last year was figuring out how many people in previous years were buying on coupon on clearance with little gross margin and how many were buying last minute with no coupon and high gross margin to average it out. This year, they know and have adjusted accordingly.
For example,Those 5 dollar tshirts cost less than 25 cents to make. Huge gross margin.
RJ said on the conference call that Joe Fresh was outselling the #1 brand on JCP.com by a factor of 7 to one, with little advertising, and only 3 days in. 61% were new customres that have not shopped jcp.com before. There was an immediate impact, just like it will be in the stores. Every store I went to this week, customers were looking at the Joe Fresh signage around the construction tarp saying they need to come back when it opens. People were looking at the Martha signage, the Bodum Signage, the Jonathan Adler signage, the Michael Graves signage, the employees were talking about it. Alot of excitement in the stores.
And yes, this weekend, the lines were long everywhere. 30-40 deep all day long.
I see alot of young couples, teenagers, and men now in the stores. A 18 months ago, nothing but people with white hair shopping there. A lot has happend so fast. Momentum is building up...
I am down a few bucks, but this will rebound as the stores open over the next couple months leading up to Q1 earnings and easy comparisons to last year.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
When positive trends in sales and traffic show a turn, the growth models of wall street analysts will be adjusted forward and the stock will fly fast with massive short covering.
Even the most bullish analyst is waiting for next year for actual profits, and some as far as FY16. The stock market is a discount mechanism.
JCP just has to show that it will get a chance to build out all 100 shops.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
The filing was made a couple weeks ago to amend it to $2.2B. The original was over a year ago. You can read both filings online. They are both standard credit line agreements. Dillards uses the same language. Macys and Sears too. Manufacturers and Suppliers have slightly different language. But yes, with credit lines, since the fixed property are tied to bonds, the credit lines have to uses something else, in this case, inventory as the collateral.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
JCP is a $13B retailer. This is the year of the NEW merchandise and NEW shops and EXCLUSIVE merchandise with excess inventory cleared through and profitable staffing model in place along with 20% off sales events each week that JCP has had 6 months to plan for and coupons to drive traffic. In februrary, traffic and sales were up so much, and the advertised products sold out so quickly, JCP had to push back marketing because they have to chase supply now. This is a much more profitable model.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Yes, its an inventory backed line, same mechanism used by their competitors and the same suppliers.
Trade relationships are not difficult, in fact, many new brands want to get a shop, with 110 submitting designs in the first few months, and many major brands submitting designs for shops after the Levi shop showed them the vision.
The problem JCP has is that vendors don't want to add to much in terms of construction of the shops because they are not in the capex game, and the tax accounting for depreciation is kind of gray in this area. The tradeoff vendors give JCP are giving them merchandise at lowest possible prices and agreeing for delayed payments when it sells through, and splitting profits when its over 44% margin, and eating the low cost when it doesn't sell through. This creates a bond that the vendor is the designer, JCP helps with the shop, and both reap the rewards. No channel stuffing. The vendor needs to create great merchandise but doesn't have to pay for staffs right now. Many other vendors go a step further and actually only design the merchandise, use JCP's supply chain to source it as cheap as possible, have JCP deliver merchandise to stores, and then withold revenue/payables until the product sells through, 30 days after sale. This is a completely different model.
In the mean time, JCP can give slight coupons and sales this year to JCP branded merchandise and select vendor events in order to drive traffic. This is because JCP needs to do essentially what the swore off, by factoring in the sale before they have the coupon, not by doubling the price, but maybe increasing prices 20% to factor in the specific products being promoted....similar to costco.
This is the year much of the store will have NEW merchandise. EXCLUSIVE merchandise. So comparisons will be much easier.
But yes, payables will be stretched out because shop vendors are now PARTNERS, not merely suppliers trying to stuff channels.
One more thing, the margin compression in Q4, alot of was inventory liquidation for multiple years of supply stock turning into cash combined with "merry christmas america" that that ate into profit margin.
Much will be known by August 13...mostly how much of a lift can they get from the home world overhaul.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
The margin compression was from "merry christmas America." Absent that, margins would have been in line with historical. Based on the csah on the balance sheet, this was really to clear out remaining inventory and generate cash, which they did by the end of Q4. Many of the payment terms are now in line with Walmart or Target payment terms, plus JCP has deals with many of the vendors and upcoming vendors that JPC sources their designs and pays them when it sells through, so its all been agreed to. Read the contracts.
Sales and traffic are up in Feb. All of the exciting things planned the last year will be coming the next 60 days. Go to a JCP this wekeend, appears to be just as big as it was last christmas season.
The online sales dragged down overall sales. If you focus on the stores, they actually would have beat expectations buddy.
I am down a few bucks now, but will double my money from here to $34 by November 13.
Look at search analytics right now, Joe Fresh and JCP trending up up up up up. T minus 2 weeks for Joe Fresh in JCPs.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Down a few bucks, but see nothing but positive momentum since early February. Comparisons will be easy here on out. Research firms across the US already know traffic and sales are flat or up in all regions. If you are short, I feel sorry for you. There will be alot of hype leading to Joe Fresh build and Home World built outs.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
J.C. Penney's Bondholders May Have The Upper Hand [View article]
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
JCP can operate a 500M loss for the next 6 or 7 years, and nothing would happen to it. It is like sears in this regard.
Unfortunately for bears, they no longer have crazy couponing years to compare to. They will have to cover as the comps are very very very very very easy this year....especially now they have new shops, new brands and new partners this spring......coupons agains, weekly sales....walk into any jcp across the country...the traffic has to be almost double what it was last year.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Sephora does over $500 Per square foot now in JCP.
JCP womens does around $300 per square foot in the first couple months of launch.
Can Joe Fresh do over $200 per square foot? Well, yeah...it can do much much much more....it can probably do $400 Per square foot. Look at it online....Joe Fresh is selling out like hotcakes at a state fair.
Long term, you bring enough exciting brands over the next few years...JCP make as much as specialty stores do in malls because thats what JCP will essentially be.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
You are a moron if you believe this guy.
JCP is positioning itself to be a platform for growth for the next 100 years. Short term pain is long term gain.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
I wish I was 20 years old again....
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
First research theme is on real estate value by looking up property records and comparison commercial comps in the area recently. JCP real estate is very very very undervalued on the books. JCP should be more than double the value based on the real estate alone. Maybe a REIT would be a good idea. It is a very long process to look up each property...
The second piece of research is on JCP's unannounced partners. One in particular is such huge news that it would likely double the stock instantly if released publically. Makes alot of sense, but timing coincides with other announcments that everyone theorizes but still not announced pubically.
The third piece of research, well, why I am even responding to you. Those than write me can back up that I provide proof to all I saw from independent sources.
Be prepared for big things this year from JCP.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
The sales are done (20% off) for nationally branded merchandise like Gold Toe or Van Heusen that they are getting that consideration from the manufacturer. Or, they are doing it on internal merchandise that they adjusted 6 months ago when it was sourced was the "sale" price would be to protect gross margin.
The biggest learning curve last year was figuring out how many people in previous years were buying on coupon on clearance with little gross margin and how many were buying last minute with no coupon and high gross margin to average it out. This year, they know and have adjusted accordingly.
For example,Those 5 dollar tshirts cost less than 25 cents to make. Huge gross margin.
RJ said on the conference call that Joe Fresh was outselling the #1 brand on JCP.com by a factor of 7 to one, with little advertising, and only 3 days in. 61% were new customres that have not shopped jcp.com before. There was an immediate impact, just like it will be in the stores. Every store I went to this week, customers were looking at the Joe Fresh signage around the construction tarp saying they need to come back when it opens. People were looking at the Martha signage, the Bodum Signage, the Jonathan Adler signage, the Michael Graves signage, the employees were talking about it. Alot of excitement in the stores.
And yes, this weekend, the lines were long everywhere. 30-40 deep all day long.
I see alot of young couples, teenagers, and men now in the stores. A 18 months ago, nothing but people with white hair shopping there. A lot has happend so fast. Momentum is building up...
I am down a few bucks, but this will rebound as the stores open over the next couple months leading up to Q1 earnings and easy comparisons to last year.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
Even the most bullish analyst is waiting for next year for actual profits, and some as far as FY16. The stock market is a discount mechanism.
JCP just has to show that it will get a chance to build out all 100 shops.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]
Trade relationships are not difficult, in fact, many new brands want to get a shop, with 110 submitting designs in the first few months, and many major brands submitting designs for shops after the Levi shop showed them the vision.
The problem JCP has is that vendors don't want to add to much in terms of construction of the shops because they are not in the capex game, and the tax accounting for depreciation is kind of gray in this area. The tradeoff vendors give JCP are giving them merchandise at lowest possible prices and agreeing for delayed payments when it sells through, and splitting profits when its over 44% margin, and eating the low cost when it doesn't sell through. This creates a bond that the vendor is the designer, JCP helps with the shop, and both reap the rewards. No channel stuffing. The vendor needs to create great merchandise but doesn't have to pay for staffs right now. Many other vendors go a step further and actually only design the merchandise, use JCP's supply chain to source it as cheap as possible, have JCP deliver merchandise to stores, and then withold revenue/payables until the product sells through, 30 days after sale. This is a completely different model.
In the mean time, JCP can give slight coupons and sales this year to JCP branded merchandise and select vendor events in order to drive traffic. This is because JCP needs to do essentially what the swore off, by factoring in the sale before they have the coupon, not by doubling the price, but maybe increasing prices 20% to factor in the specific products being promoted....similar to costco.
This is the year much of the store will have NEW merchandise. EXCLUSIVE merchandise. So comparisons will be much easier.
But yes, payables will be stretched out because shop vendors are now PARTNERS, not merely suppliers trying to stuff channels.
One more thing, the margin compression in Q4, alot of was inventory liquidation for multiple years of supply stock turning into cash combined with "merry christmas america" that that ate into profit margin.
Much will be known by August 13...mostly how much of a lift can they get from the home world overhaul.
Why J.C. Penney's Pricing Strategy Changes Are Great For The Stock [View article]
Sales and traffic are up in Feb. All of the exciting things planned the last year will be coming the next 60 days. Go to a JCP this wekeend, appears to be just as big as it was last christmas season.
The online sales dragged down overall sales. If you focus on the stores, they actually would have beat expectations buddy.
I am down a few bucks now, but will double my money from here to $34 by November 13.
Look at search analytics right now, Joe Fresh and JCP trending up up up up up. T minus 2 weeks for Joe Fresh in JCPs.
J.C. Penney Store Leaders Give Positive Feedback On Q4 Sales [View article]