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Matt Jonza

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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I was thinking the same thing... then I saw this article:

    http://ab.co/1gbCGWL

    120 fahrenheit in Australia? Talk about extremes. Maybe there is something to climate change?
    Jan 6 10:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook reportedly offered $3B or more for Snapchat, was turned down [View news story]
    This anecdote is a far from statistically significant... but I am a 23 year old in MN. In the past year, more than 20 people I know have deactivated their FB account and do not plan on reactivating it. Just saying.... Facebook might have ran its' course in America. Myspace 2.0?

    The point is, everything in tech is a fad in some sense. I'm not convinced that Facebook has true staying power.
    Nov 13 03:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AdAge: iTunes Radio launching in Sep., top advertisers on board [View news story]
    I am a frequent Pandora user, probably 2 hours a day on average, maybe more. Once iTunes Radio comes out, I am definitely going to try it out. I am not that invested in my custom stations. But if iTunes radio disappoints in anyway, I'm right back to Pandora and I probably won't look back.

    I believe a lot of people out there have the same mindset I do. Hopefully for Apple's sake, iTunes Radio is a much more refined product than Apple Maps was when it debuted.
    Aug 20 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros takes long position in Herbalife: CNBC [View news story]
    hey bill, the hits keep on coming... give it up haha
    Jul 31 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Rising Mortgage Rates Make This Stock A Very Strong Buy Now [View article]
    The profits will come retail, investment, home equity, auto, servicing, loan origination, insurance, credit cards, commercial loans, etc. Wells Fargo is a one stop financial institution. They do everything.

    I want to clarify, I do not think that WFC is a poor investment - it is one of if not the best big bank in our country. I just wanted to point out that rising interest rates aren't going to have a positive impact on their Home Mortgage business line. For the most part, Wells does not keep loans on their book. Perhaps in the future they will choose to capitolize on ZIRP as you suggest, but it seems unlikely to me. Wells is all about minimizing risk. I think anyone who has been through a conventional refinance with them in recent years can attest to that. They will ask for everything besides your family tree haha.

    For the most part, the income from mortgages came from selling the loans they originated. Fannie, Freddie, and other government backed agencies purchase 90% of all new mortgages.

    http://huff.to/18bpZLQ
    Jul 11 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Rising Mortgage Rates Make This Stock A Very Strong Buy Now [View article]
    Your link is about selling servicing rights, not the actual loan? Keeping the right to service the loan means sending out bills, online banking, and assessing late fees. It's not the right to keep the actual loan on their balance sheet. Servicing margins are unaffected by fluctuations in interest rates as far as I know.
    Jul 10 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes: Several on the committee saw tapering as likely and warranted soon, but many want to see further improvement in the labor market first. Several want to see faster economic growth in addition to improvement in employment. [View news story]
    Tapering in September
    Jul 10 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Rising Mortgage Rates Make This Stock A Very Strong Buy Now [View article]
    The link you provided states that refinance applications now make up 64% of the market. That figure will continue to trend lower over the next year regardless of where interest rates end up. Demand is drying up. I have a couple of friends here in Minneapolis who work for WFHM and they said there aren't enough loans to fill the work week. They are all looking for other job prospects because in their opinion the writing on the wall. First red flag.

    Second red flag comes from your other comments. You say that WFC keeps a majority of their loans on the books (or will now that interest rates have risen some). This is false. Wells was the only big bank who attempted to decline the TARP money because they didn't have toxic assets on their books. They sold nearly all of their loans back then, and you can bet that now with new regulations in place and the financial crisis still seared into everyones memories that they will continue to sell all of their loans to Fannie and Freddy.

    GregT below is spot on though; auto, commercial, and the home equity line of business all stand to benefit from the rising interest rates.

    Hold WFC imo.
    Jul 10 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Rising Mortgage Rates Make This Stock A Very Strong Buy Now [View article]
    I am curious, can you provide any numbers on the total number of refinance applications versus total number of purchase? I see a downward trend in refinance volume regardless of it interest rates climb. Practically everyone with any financial sense has already refinanced to a low to mid 3% rate. Now with rates on the rise? I'd be will to bet refinance volume will fall drastically over the next 12 - 24 months.

    I am not ready to dismiss your thesis, but I would need some questions answered before I would buy in:
    - What is the net loss in mortgage applications? Can rising purchase applications really offset such a drastic drop in refinances?
    - What are the margins for loans made at higher interest rates versus lower ones? Surely, all 100 basis points aren't "pure profit" over the long run.
    - What are margins on purchase loans versus refinance loans?
    - Can Wells Fargo and other large lenders scale back quick enough on staff to keep margins high? Lenders have been building up their work force for the low interest rate high mortgage volume environment. With interest rates on the rise, will all of these employees be needed?
    Jul 9 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) does an about-face, dropping the Xbox One's Internet verification requirements and all of its used game restrictions. GameStop (GME) investors are very pleased, shares +7.8% AH. Microsoft's change-of-heart follows a major backlash from gamers (they were far from appeased by Redmond's initial response), and plenty of gamer enthusiasm being shown for the PlayStation 4 (SNE), both due to its lack of similar restrictions and its lower price. [View news story]
    Excellent decision by microsoft. I'm not much of a gamer myself, but all of my friends who are were pretty disgruntled.
    Jun 19 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's widely known that the U.S. State Department must approve the Keystone pipeline but an OK also is required from the Fish & Wildfire Service, which this month said the proposed route may endanger the American burying beetle. TransCanada (TRP) will have to trap and relocate the one-inch beetles, using frozen rats that have thawed a bit for maximum pungency. CEO Russ Girling says the company will do whatever it takes. [View news story]
    the world would be a better place if there weren't burying beetles.
    May 31 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Bernanke: "Another cost, one that we take very seriously, is the possibility that very low interest rates, if maintained too long, could undermine financial stability ... (however) a premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery." Questioning is about to begin. S&P 500 +0.9%[View news story]
    rally on market
    May 22 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings tells the Financial Post that he thinks traditional fixed TV services will die out as a "bunch of different apps" compete for the time and money of consumers. The exec also said during the expansive interview that he doesn't see Netflix raising its $8 monthly fee despite rising content costs. [View news story]
    How about your smart TV?
    May 15 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings tells the Financial Post that he thinks traditional fixed TV services will die out as a "bunch of different apps" compete for the time and money of consumers. The exec also said during the expansive interview that he doesn't see Netflix raising its $8 monthly fee despite rising content costs. [View news story]
    He is right... the younger generations hardly watch TV. I only use TV for sports personally, everything else I watch through Netflix or stream on some other site.

    I'm not long Netflix, but you can almost guarantee the growth will continue.
    May 15 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB) roundup: 1) AllThingsD backs up reports Facebook is in talks to buy Waze for $1B. Waze would bolster Facebook's efforts to become a go-to source for local content (and push local ads along the way), and Facebook's reach could greatly increase the value of Waze's crowdsourced map/traffic data. 2) Facebook Home surpasses 1M downloads ahead of an update. But its user rating remains 2.2/5, as users keep griping over a lack of widget/folder support. 3) Leon Cooperman pounds the table for Facebook. "People underestimate the mobility opportunity that exists ... we think they could achieve a market cap comparable to a Google." [View news story]
    leon cooperman is nuts
    May 9 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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