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Matt Lew

 
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  • Opaque Transparency: Dissecting Apple's FY 2015 Reporting Changes [View article]
    I actually think most will be able to extrapolate decent visibility into Watch revenues from "other" category. Let's say AAPL launches it in February. You'll have a steady-state rev run-rate of "other" from Dec. qtr and you can apply a historical growth rate as there will be pro-forma's provided (just like when accessories got taken away from the product categories). So once you apply a historical growth rate of that other category to the steady state, the excess should essentially be Beats hardware and Watch - and Beats hardware is likely about $250M a quarter.
    Oct 28 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone Channel: Stay Tuned [View article]
    No - I think you are mistaken. Just re-read the call transcript, the statement as reported on the transcript was made by Nancy Paxton right before the Q&A: "Today, iPhone is sold in over 200,000 locations around the world"

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 27 11:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone Channel: Stay Tuned [View article]
    If MB has put his money where his mouth is (or rather his typing) on AAPL, there is no amount of clicks in the world that can make him whole. So no, I will not be throwing good money after bad.
    Oct 27 11:43 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone Channel: Stay Tuned [View article]
    @Feear the cow - you really need to try AAPL stores - remember the TC proclamation that he wanted more iPhones sold directly thru AAPL stores as the margin is higher and it gets more ppl in stores to buy other crap? Well, he allocates supply - AAPL stores, for the past two-years, have been far more reliable when it comes to finding the phone you want - found a 6 and 6+ in Dallas on Saturday - both in several colors / configs
    Oct 27 11:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone Channel: Stay Tuned [View article]
    Michael - Point taken, however, the channel has greatly expanded especially with China Mobile now. As mentioned in the article, with over 200,000 points-of-sale for iPhone, 16.25M phones is only 81 phones per location. Additionally, AAPL stated it exited FQ4 below its target range of 4-6 weeks of channel inventory. Have you been to an AAPL store lately? There are still lines to buy these things - I am more worried about AAPL's ability to make enough phones than I am about their ability to sell enough phones. FQ1 revenue will be range-bound by iPhone supply, not demand.
    Oct 27 06:08 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fiscal 2015 EPS Growth Updated [View article]
    I've seen a couple of analyses thus far on the watch and estimate that the BOM on the $350 entry will likely be between $80 and $100. Once you add in warranty, allocations, assembly, etc., likely in the $150 range, pegging GM on the entry at 57%, which is above the iPhone, which is about 50%. Nobody will really know until ifixit gets its hands on it. Note that since all of this rev is going into 'other', any accessories (mainly bands) which will have huge margins, will only enhance the overall margins of what could grow to be a decent chunk of change (iPod + Watch + Apple Branded Accessories + 3rd Party Accessories + Beats hardware).
    Oct 24 11:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Cents Of iPhone Unit Sales Announcements [View article]
    If you read AAPL's SEC filings, they state the following under their "Critical Accounting Policies" -> Revenue Recognition:

    "For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit."

    Believe it or not, they actually do track when UPS / FedEx completes delivery.

    Agree on your point that all "first 24-hour" presales were likely delivered by this weekend.
    Sep 19 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Please Stop Using Ex-Cash P/E When Evaluating Apple [View article]
    I think you make some good points here. It is clear that you are saying that you cannot just take AAPL's $165B and deduct it from the market cap to get an adequate ex-cash P/E. You give a number of deductions you'd need to take (general cash needs, covenant requirements, repatriation taxes) to get a true cash number. So are you saying that you shouldn't use this ratio at all, or rather, you need to adjust the cash number to make it a more realistic measurement of FV?
    Aug 5 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    Well, I can tell you that iPad / iPhone channel inventory dynamics Y-O-Y had a negative impact on top-line revenue of approximately $1.7B.

    For iPad, there was a channel difference of 2.5M units (1.4M build in FQ2-2013 + 1.1M contraction during FQ2-2014). If you apply an ASP of $450, that is $1.125B.

    For iPhone, there was a channel difference of 900K units (1.0M build in FQ2-2013 - 0.1M build in FQ2-2014). If you apply an ASP of $600, that is $540M.

    Put together, it's approximately $1.7B. I believe that amount is greater than the forex issue.
    Apr 30 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    I prefer the in-depth research reports issued by an obscure firm called KGI Securities, but thanks for the tip.
    Apr 29 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    Does anybody have any idea what type of margin the "iTunes / Software / Services" product category runs at? I would assume very high although that all depends on the allocation (e.g., cost of personnel to maintain the App Store, server costs, payment of royalties on music, etc.).
    Apr 29 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    iPhone 4S continued to be offered in the U.S. at $0 on-contract, so it likely made up more than 10% of the overall product mix. The iPhone 4 was offered in only a few markets, which would support TC's assertion that sales were negligible.
    Apr 29 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    This is not true. TC indicated that the company sold a low teen-percentage of iPhone 4 NOT iPhone 4S: "

    Quoted:
    Just to be clear on the iPhone 4 question, we sold a very, very low single-digit percentage of those and so we had extremely minimal impact of results on the quarter."
    Apr 29 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    I don't believe your statement is correct, or rather, it's missing a big piece: "Setting foreign exchange and inventory changes aside, our underlying growth rate would have been close to double digit" - the effect of the channel inventory change (IMO) was much bigger than the forex effect.
    Apr 29 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive Into Apple's Gross Margins And What It Means Going Forward [View article]
    AlphaChuck3 - I could be wrong about this, but Cramer never abandoned his AAPL position in his charitable trust - a disclosure he makes every time he discusses the company.
    Apr 29 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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