So what to do for those of us who are genuine gold-philes and believe in the long term prospects of the shiny yellow stuff? For starters, keep buying bullion coins regardless the price. But if you can’t – if your only options are ETFs and mining shares – it’s time to do a little hedging.

Your only goal now should be to maintain your sanity, as what happens next is sure to both terrify and surprise. Unfortunately, there’s little we can say in advance to help you prepare for the shock and awe of what’s imminent. Only stay calm. Keep your head. The impulsive and cocksure will be lost. The deliberate and even-keeled, saved.

The ad featured a trio of brothers sitting around the breakfast table, trying to determine who was going to try a new cereal. Neither of the older brothers had the nerve to give it a go (“I ain’t gonna try it; you try it.”). But the youngest, Mikey, could always be convinced. “He’ll eat anything!”

“Gold kind of scares me because very often the people involved with it seem to be slightly insane.”

– James Montier, head of equity research, Societe Generale, London

And nowhere is it more dangerous than in the investment world, where a wrong hunch can get you a one way ticket to poverty bay.

That said, we thought we’d let you know ours anyway. We have a hunch the market is ready for a very sizeable move. That shouldn’t surprise you; after all the VIX is still hovering in the stratosphere, and big moves are, by definition, accompanied by elevated levels in volatility.

Take it to heart that:

Siegel’s work has both adherents and detractors, but it’s hard to argue with his data. His most famous work may be the following bit of pictorial pulchritude:

The only clear item to emerge from this last week’s trade is a decided shift in sentiment toward the pessimistic. Yet whether this shift has been large enough to be used by contrarians appears doubtful. There’s not enough genuine fear, in our view, to justify taking a bullish stance at this time.

The answer?

How’s this for the makings of an intrigue: a convicted con-man become Christian Minister accuses homebuilding giant, Lennar Corp. (LEN), of fraud – something he has a modicum of experience in, having served seven years of a 25 year sentence for the same before being paroled.

So too, however, is it easy to miscalculate the impact of politics – and even significant military events – on the course of bull and bear markets. Especially in a world driven by 24 hour, live-hype media that would have you believe the sky is falling every time Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hiccups.

You can’t turn your head these days without someone commenting on, analyzing, besmirching or otherwise gabbing about the Chinese. And with good reason. The Chinese economy is now the “scale-tipper” in the battle to reflate the world economy. Whither China, whither the rest of us.

Let’s start with the analysts.