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Matt Stewart

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  • Can This MLM Be Saved? [View article]
    I like the approach the California AG took in this case...

    This might be a good start.
    Aug 20 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can This MLM Be Saved? [View article]
    I like your "Modest Proposal" Bill...Swift would be impressed.
    Aug 20 08:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something's Rotten In The State Of Missouri - Is Mr. Stiritz On The Wrong Side Of The Trade? [View article]
    It's a lovely fairy tale. If only it made sense. Take away the business opportunity pitch and your company is a shadow of its former self.

    To hand hold an actual dieter for 30 days straight would cost you what in time and materials and energy?

    In exchange the client might buy $100 worth of product at gross profit?

    My personal trainer makes more in an hour at the local gym.

    The only people who make money at Herbalife are the recruiters...everyone else quits.
    Aug 17 05:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chapman And Hempton On Herbalife: The Blind Are Leading The Blind [View article]
    which was the other company...?
    Aug 17 07:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chapman And Hempton On Herbalife: The Blind Are Leading The Blind [View article]
    Aug 17 07:24 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Gravitas Statistically Provable: Look Out Below [View article]
    People Join primarily for the Income do we know? All of the people doing the recruiting sell the income opportunity. Note the diamond Bling at the top of the Club 100 chart...Income Opportunity...

    Susan Peterson...if you want to mover your check, find people who want to pursue the business...

    are their people who join to lose weight?

    of would be absurd to suggest not...

    but...this is not the place where the fraud occurs...

    the fraud occurs for the business opportunity seeker...


    because the company that sells licenses to distribute sells an endless chain of them...and new recruits are told that they can improve their standard of living by recruiting...

    of course if all of the participants pursue this line of thinking, the mathematical outcome is certain...inevitably, downlines will be empty or at best too lean to drive any material revenue/margin to cover fixed costs...

    ergo...people fail...

    is there such thing as a legitimate MLM? I would think so...I would think that company that doesn't intentionally recruit to the point of saturation (defined as too many salespeople serving not enough consumers) then it might be possible for an MLM to be legit... know this the company would have to track retail sales, profitability of its salespeople, demand by micro-market, etc...

    Herbalife does nonie of this...instead, it constantly tells new recruits that the world is an infinite opportunity set destined tone harvested...

    this of course is total only need to look closely at the number of Nutrition Clubs in Mexico for evidence...or Queens NY for that matter...

    if you and Mr. Thompson are MLM herbalife's business practices however is an absurd proposition...

    how you can watch videos of the Club 100 graduates and not be appalled and disgusted escapes me entirely...

    if I recruit you, David, to become a distributor and then turn around and recruit Kevin next selling him exactly the same story...and so on and so on and so on...all I and king is unleashing a chain of people who compete v. one another to the death for whatever retail demand exists...I am intentionally setting you up to fail...of course along the way, I get paid on all of your good faith efforts to make a go of it...

    this is the Herbalife con in a nutshell...mathematical fallacies are fraud...

    by the way...they are also a stupid business plan...establishing territorial or franchise rights would legitimize the model and provide a barrier to entry/exclusivity for salespeople...

    far more rational, sustainable and sensible...

    how any business can survive and grow ad infinitum with such massive turnover in its distributor base is just we just saw in HLF's most recent earnings release...

    whoever is paying you David is getting their money's're a bright guy who can spin an this case, however, the evidence is not on your side...
    Aug 15 09:11 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Gravitas Statistically Provable: Look Out Below [View article]

    You betray your own intelligence when you write a post like this. Do you think the FTC has allocated investigative resources to this file just for kicks? Is the SEC tilting at windmills?

    what does "virtually no evidence" mean anyway? Is that the same as saying "just a wee bit of evidence"?

    The most critical pice of evidence that is absolutely 100% irrefutable is obvious. Most people who sign-up for this "business opportunity" fail.

    This failure is the result of deception and fraud.
    Aug 14 05:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Campaign Is A Gift To The Long-Term Herbalife Shareholder [View article]
    Herbalife's free cashflow is the result of business opportunity fraud...

    -Exaggerated Income Claims
    -Exaggerated Product Claims
    -Duplication The Key to Success
    -Duplication a Mathematical Fallacy (3.9 x5x5x5 = 487.5 million distributors)
    -Company Hides Failure Rates from New Recruits
    -Company Does not track retail sales nor profits nor distributor expenses
    -Compliance Regime is a Joke
    -Routinely Misleads Investors with Opaque Statements and Circular References
    -2 million or so distributors will quit this year alone

    other than that your long thesis makes sense...
    Aug 14 05:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Gravitas Statistically Provable: Look Out Below [View article]
    Kevin...You are an intelligent guy. If you read through the risk factors section of HLF's 10k it is littered with comments about the law and the idea that HLF's business model may be challenged at any time by various parties.

    Herbalife, therefore, discloses only what it needs to to advance the idea that it is legitimate.

    Data points like:
    Retail Sales
    Failure Rates
    Actual Operating Costs for Distributors
    P&Ls for Distributors
    Average Retail Sales Price

    are all left out o fthe equation entirely...


    Because the vast majority of business opportunity seekers at Herbalife fail...

    relying upon Herbalife for an objective self-assessment is an absurd proposition. Investors who similarly rely upon management's forward looking statements, uber-bulllish sentiment, and general cognitive dissonance are equally naive.

    I have retained research firm myself as a marketing executive. Surveys and their results can always be driven to produce a desired result.

    The only examination that matters now is the examination being conducted by the regulators. These individuals have d sty to examine the evidence before them and reach a just conclusion. It is unlikely that they are biased either in the favor of HLF or the DSA or the MLM proponents. It is equally unlikely that they are doing the bidding of shorts.

    Rather, they are likely to be reviewing the evidence.

    The evidence against Herbalife collected by Mr. Ackman and Pershing Square is damning. How regulators use that evidence remains to be seen.

    Lieberman's research is PR. And, as Willy TSA points out below - has been spin-doctored anyway.
    Aug 14 12:46 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman's Gravitas Statistically Provable: Look Out Below [View article]
    who is Pete,,,always wondered that...:)
    Aug 14 07:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Corporate Governance Reform At Post Overdue? [View article]
    Unless I am mistaken he is the Chairman and CEO...that would make him a member of the Board no?
    Aug 12 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Corporate Governance Reform At Post Overdue? [View article]
    Your argument is, of course, absurd. Mr Stiritz has invested on the premise that the business model is legitimate. Ergo: The conflict of interest is obvious.
    Aug 12 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear John Hempton: It's Not A Weight Loss Cult, It's A Confidence Game [View article]
    30 Servings Per Canister at 2 Scoops each...implies roughly 2 servings per Distributor per diem per Quarter...easy to conclude that all Consumos can and likely do occur within the network...

    as to whether or not people consume to lose weight or collect Volume Points?

    I,ll leave that one to common sense.
    Aug 7 03:57 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Recklessly Leveraged On China? [View article]
    Did you see the $53 stock price?

    did you see all the shares the company acquired at dilutive valuations?

    Did you see the CFO apply conservative or aggressive accounting in Venezuela?

    Did you see how almost every other publicly traded mlm has been taken out for a valuation contraction?

    Do you see how low the quality of this company,s earnings are because it is on spin cycle?

    Market participants are capitalizing the roughly
    600 million in cash flow as if it is a perpetuity at a 10% discount rate...

    do you see how Herbalife,s customers are anything other than perpetual?

    Does it occur to you that the company,s recapitalization is now a tailwind for short sellers?
    Aug 1 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife Recklessly Leveraged On China? [View article]

    Volume point growth is slowing the world over, sales leader growth is also slowing, China is an outlier for sure but not enough to trump declining results in ROW...

    Dead cat bounce today is likely to be short lived.

    if hlf doesn't,t formally write down Venezuelan results some time this year they just look crooked...4% of sales from venezuelai is overstated too...

    Just far too much risk all around to pay even a 10 multiple for this company...

    Materially overvalued still at 6 billion enterprise value...

    Staying short
    Aug 1 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment