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Matt Stewart  

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  • How RIM Can Squeeze The Shorts [View article]
    Mark, my good friend, Mr. Market is discounting RIMM as if it will have no free cashflow once handset volumes continue to crater...and so it trades at a discount to NAV...

    declaring a dividend won't change the profile of the company's cashflow stream...it simply alters where the money goes...

    and...absent earnings/ FCF being retained in RIMM's coffers....Mr. market would likely take the stock down further as the dividend would only serve to weaken RIMM's balance sheet further/reduce its strategic flexibility...

    The way for RIMM to put a floor under its share price is not to declare a dividend...but rather to declare that RIMM has hired a banker to review its "Strategic Options"...putting its assets in play is the only way to maximize value at this juncture...because the valley between BB7 and BB10 is just too grand a canyon to cross...

    also...believing that a proprietary OS like QNX will be able to compete long-run v. freeware like Android and the combined Balance sheet strength of Apple and Microsoft is like betting on me to win a cage match with Hulk Hogan and Andre the Giant...

    RIMM is in run-off...the idea that QNX will make any kind of difference is delusional...if RIMM is to maximize any residual value for minority shareholders...the answer is to sell itself before its 75 million subs become 65...then 55, etc....let one of the other 3 big OS realize the synergy value from killing QNX and porting over BBM and the back office...

    as for a dividend...well...$1 dividend would draw cash down $525 million...so...NAV drops by this amount...as stock trades on NAV...does this not simply become a wash?
    Dec 21, 2011. 08:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Is Too Cheap: Time To Buy [View article]
    If you agree with Steven ELOP...this is a war of eco-systems...and basically a 3 horse race...
    iOS (closed)
    Android (Open)
    Windows (Hybrid)

    RIMM has valuable assets to add to an eco-system...including 75 million users that re up for grabs...

    BBM alone is a "sticky" app that user absolutely love and has netwrook effects/value with youngsters...if you prt that to your eco-system...many BB users will follow you over...

    I don't see APPLE as a player for RIMM...but GOOGLE already did the MOT deal and NOK/MSFT have also partnered-up..

    one thing is for sure...you can bet corporate strategists at all of these companies are reviewing their options right now...especially as QNX is further delayed...RIMM is wounded, "in play" and the only way out for it is to sell...
    Dec 19, 2011. 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion Is Too Cheap: Time To Buy [View article]
    Here's the problem...

    The handset business is a Dog...if you allocate all R&D, marketing, and COGS to handsets...they likely don't pay for themselves...

    all the cashflow comes from services...

    RIMM needs to do segment reporting

    We know $1 billion of top-line revenues come from services....but what % of the 37% Gross Profit # is driven by this piece of the business?

    What you need is somebody else to do the heavy lifting to build the subscriber pool while you run the data centre and collect the service fees...

    Making handsets against Apple and Samsung and Nokia is a mug's game...just no way they can compete...especially as Android is now freeware...

    RIMM is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on QNX....meanwhile...Sam... is killing them by selling phones that have a free OS...

    why can't Lazaridis see this? Why doesn't Balckberry make an Android handset? Do these guys even see the world around them?

    ELOP figured it out. Whether or not he made the right call...time will tell...but he abandoned Symbian because he knew he would never be able to compete on the software side...and yet still...we have Jim and Mike telling us it is all about QNX...craziness...and not like a fox!

    These guys need to get their BBM, etc. into either Android or Microsoft's eco-systems and fast...

    else...they will just be a legacy messaging platform in run-off...
    Dec 19, 2011. 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Research In Motion Will Be A $50 Stock [View article]
    RIMM is a SHORT Sale yet again...her north of $30 it is discounting earnings of over $1 billion perpetually...

    doubtful...

    full effects of ongoing competitive pressure will be broght to bear in full force in 2012 as Windows Phoen emerges, iPhone 5 hits and Goog.MOT follow-up with their latest and greatest...

    RIMM nowhere in touchscreens, ecosystem, etc...

    heading to $10...
    Sep 1, 2011. 11:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Shareholder's Open Letter to Research In Motion [View article]
    You will lose all of your money...you have no idea how to analyze an industry...RIMM competing against companies with Cash on Balance Sheet 100 fold their bullets...

    easy to see who will win and lose the R&D attrition war...

    Waterloo v. Cupertino...is there anything else you need to know beyond that?
    Jun 20, 2011. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talk of RIM's Demise Greatly Exaggerated [View article]
    To own RIMM you have to believe that a company from Waterloo, Ontario with $3 billion in cash is going to out-innovate Google, Microsoft, and Apple - who have a combined $150 billion in cash between them to fund R&D...

    RIMM's R&D continues to turn-up failure...STorm, Storm 2, Torch, Playdud....and now QNX...as if it has a chance against Android, IOS, and Windows 7...

    RIMM is either a take-under....or a future partner for GOOG/MSFT on the software side...as for going it alone and surviving?

    Stock is still too high at $27...40 million phones at $250 a crack is only $10 billion in revenue x .5x sales = $5 billion cap plus cash...
    that is where this stock is heading...

    stay short until the teens arrive...

    Target Price - $16
    Jun 20, 2011. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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