I was not expecting to be busy today, but with the Dubai news on a day like today, the volatility had markets all over the place.

Crude oil finished lower by $2 but intra-day, traded almost $6 lower. Coincidence or not, the 61.8% Fibonacci line at $72.25 should contain further losses; today’s low in January was $72.39. We would like to see the dust settle early next week before committing to either side. Clients were advised to take their January 50 and 75 cent calls spreads off today (some at a slight loss and others at a slight profit). Trail stops on mini-futures; $5.40 and then $5.60 could be achievable on this leg. On fresh entries we suggest February.

As we said yesterday, this could serve as a turn in the Crude oil futures. We would suggest being long until $75.50 gives way on the January contract. The only disappointment is, prices should have been higher with the dollar falling off a cliff today. Natural gas as of this post is higher by 8.5%; if we were to close at these levels there should be much more left in the trade. $5.40 on the January contract is the 50% Fibonacci level and $5.60 is the 61.8%. We like being long January mini-futures. We may suggest rolling the January spreads out to February for clients…stay tuned.

Sugar is fighting the fight as prices were higher by 1% today; we suggest long March calls. On a trade above 1113 in the S&P we will be cutting losses on short futures, stay with the puts for now.

Crude traded below the 50 day moving average for the first time since 10/9 today, hitting our first objective of $76, see previous posts. If today’s low holds in the coming sessions this could be a good beginning to a long scale trade. At this point we cannot rule out a trade in the short run to $74 on the January contract… stay tuned. Natural gas has been holding its own but it is still premature to call a bottom. We still suggest light exposure in mini-futures and 50 and 75 cent call spreads.

We’ve yet to get clients re-positioned in the lumber market but we’re very impressed with the recent action. Ideally we get a trade back near $215 in January to get clients long.

Of late I find myself having this conversation more and more with clients. Answer this one question before putting on new positions: Would you rather be on the sidelines wishing you were in the market or in the market wishing you were on the sidelines. Me personally, I would prefer the sidelines missing a move than being caught in an adverse move in the market wishing I was on the sidelines.

Crude oil got within spitting distance of $80 early in the day but could not hold those levels. We favor a move lower to get positioned long for clients. Could natural gas put a third consecutive positive day together? We suggest long exposure with mini-futures and call spreads in January.

Crude was lower on the day and looks to close about where we started the week. We are still anticipating further downside and see mild support at $76 followed by $74 on the January contract. Two positive days in a row in natural gas as prices may actually be finding a bottom. We have been getting long mini-futures and call spreads for clients for about a week or so, and expect prices to turn higher, looking for a trade back over $5 very soon.

Sugar managed to stay above the 100 day moving average but we need to hold these levels or it could get ugly for longs. Clients still hold OJ puts but prices must make their way towards $1 soon as clients have January positions. Lumber has started to come off depreciating $16 or 7% the last 3 days but we would like to see more before issuing a buy recommendation.

Oil dropped by 2%, today making its way to the lower end of the recent range. We’ve suggested waiting for lower levels before establishing longs and we are sticking to our guns; ideally a trade down $76 and potentially $74 on the January contract. Expect some fireworks tomorrow as December goes off the board. Natural gas made a new low but prices appear to be closing near the highs 2% higher on the day. We want to stay long but a bearish AGA tomorrow may kill our hopes. Longer term this most likely will be a value play, but as for the January mini-futures and call spreads, clients need to see a move back above $5 to think these trades have a chance of being profitable.

Sugar gave up ground today and in the next couple sessions should break out of the ascending wedge that has been forming in recent months. As you know we have a bullish bias... time will tell.

Crude meanders higher with a higher low and higher high. We still have no feel either way and suggest waiting for more evidence on future price action. It was a bloodbath in natural gas today with prices down 6%, this stings a little. The January call spreads took some heat today and depending on stop placement you may have been stopped out of your long mini-futures. For now we are holding the spreads but we’ve lost about 25-50% of premium. Forty days till expiration, which is an eternity but we should know the outcome in the next couple of days and trade accordingly... stay tuned.

Coffee may have gotten away from us as prices were higher again today. Coffee appears to be a buy on dips market once again. We see support in March at $1.38 followed by $1.35. Lumber was lower by 4% today; on a further slide we will be looking at long plays for clients... stay tuned. We advised a purchase on sugar today and expect the downsloping trend line to be penetrated in coming sessions.

Mixed bag in oil today as the 20-day moving average continues to act as the pivot point. For fresh entries, start watching the January contract as December is off the board this week. Natural gas was higher in early dealings but could not hold onto its gains closing slightly lower. We have clients positioned long January mini-futures and 50 and 75 cent call spreads.

Lumber was higher by the daily limit today, adding to its recent gains and taking prices to a 4-1/2 month highs. It appears prices are moving as lumber yards are starting to close for the holidays. Looking at a historical chart, lumber still looks cheap. We will be looking at potentially a longer term position trade on a set back…stay tuned.

I’m not sure I agree, but needless to say oil traded higher by 3% today. We are on the sidelines; on a close back above the 20 day moving average we may need to get clients long again. We were hoping for an entry at lower levels but with the dollar lower and equities higher that may not happen. Natural gas may have turned the corner, gaining 5% today. We’ve suggested long mini-futures with stops below the recent lows on a closing basis and January 50 and 75 cent calls spreads.

Sugar was higher by 2.25% today. We suggest long exposure via calls and futures in March contracts looking for a re-rest of 25/26 cents. Let’s wait till tomorrow on the coffee, a gainer of 4% today. The 50 day moving average held late last week and with today's move, prices regained the 100 day moving average on the March contract. OJ was one of the few commodities that faltered today; clients remain short via January puts.

Crude oil was lower again today finding support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $75.70 on the December contract. The path of least resistance appears down, being prices did not move higher today with stocks rallying and dollar weakness. Intraday, natural gas traded below the September lows but it appears we will close above those levels. We suggest long mini-futures with stops below the September lows on a closing basis and 50 and 75 cent call spreads for the month of January.

Softs were mostly uneventful, but reflecting back on the week, lumber has quietly advanced $13 on the January contract and almost 20% in the last month.

Most commodity investors with whom I come into contact are trading energies and metals, but perhaps a healthy portfolio needs more vegetables. With the slowest harvest in over two decades, we believe more investors should be looking towards agriculture. Looking at the macro view, in our opinion, adds further bullishness, being soybeans and corn are a staple in one’s diet, and with more mouths to feed we should see demand grow exponentially in the coming years.

In the most recent USDA crop report, they expect the corn harvest to be 12.9 billion bushels, down 1% from the October forecast. They also decreased the yield by 1.3 bushels/acre, which we feel is generous and expect further reductions. While the corn crop is projected to be the second largest on record, up 7% from last year, the demand for corn and its byproducts may be growing at a faster pace.

Builds across the board on Crude and the distillates today. Crude traded lower as expected and is down over 3% just above support at $76.50 on the December contract. If that level gives way, expect $75. We do not have clients short but will be looking to get long from lower levels…stay tuned. Trade idea: For aggressive traders buying January mini-natural gas futures with stops below the September lows. We prefer January 50 and 75 cent call spreads at the moment.

Cotton looks to be moving lower, but for now without our clients; we failed to find a trade that made viable sense considering our other trades and the recent sideways action. Corn was lower today but not low enough for us to re-enter longs for clients.

An inside day in Crude as prices look to close slightly higher. We have no exposure with clients but expect prices to drift lower in the short run. Inventory report out tomorrow a day later than normal on Crude and the distillates and on Friday for natural gas. As previously stated we expect the September lows in natural gas to hold and we’re advising clients to buy 50 and 75 cent January call spreads.

Sugar screamed higher today regaining the trend line closing 3.5% higher on the day. December cotton made a new high and failed closing 2.5% lower on the day. We’re pricing out bearish plays for clients… stay tuned.

Crude prices are still trying to decide on where to go from here; for now the 20 day moving average seems to be acting as the pivot point. As we’ve stated, the range remains $81 to $76.50 on the December contract. Natural gas is lower by 19 cents as of this post. Looking at the pattern in recent sessions we are alternating positive and negative days; under that theory, prices should be higher tomorrow. We are getting a lot of investors' resistance to buying natural gas much like we did back in August and September. We all know how that turned out…stay tuned.

Cocoa was down by $70 today; those short futures trail your stops. It would happen like this as clients' December puts expired worthless yesterday! Sugar broke the trend line closing below 22 cents, we advised clients to stay long but they are down on their position. Coffee prices traded through the trend line losing 4.25% today. We will examine longs from lower levels; support in December is seen at 1.32 and then 1.29.

I believe the 2.5% move higher in Crude oil today was more of a dollar weakness story than an oil strength story. Will it continue?? We expect $76.50 and $81 to contain prices on the December contract in the short run. As we said in our commentary this morning, we prefer to be a buyer from lower levels for clients. We’re advising clients to buy 50 & 75 cent bull call spreads in January natural gas. Though prices printed a new low it appears prices will close higher on the day.

As of this post the Dow is higher by 200 points and the S&P by 22, the largest 1 day swing we’ve seen in several weeks. This carries the Dow to a new '09 high and we should see further appreciation. The S&P should trade up to 1100 this week if not next. We may look to get clients short but not yet.

Well, it looks like we only loss 190,000 jobs last month but the unemployment rate ticked above10% to its highest level since April of 1983. What recovery? I don’t see a recovery; just because prices of stock and commodities have moved up we’re NOT back on track. As for the markets, with more people out of work I guess the demand for Crude oil is perceived to shrink?? Oil fell almost 3% today. Who know from here; I’m getting mixed signals. Natural gas prices ended lower by 4% today and 8.5% on the week. We hold January call spreads for clients and expect a push higher very soon. We have yet to pick a bottom in futures but are getting close.

Stocks could go either way though I was impressed by this week’s action. If forced to pick a direction I would say up but it will be with out my clients. Gold did print above $1100 but we will settle below. I feel there is much more upside but do not rule out a healthy correction in the short run. Clients remain long silver; we would like to see a probe to $18 next week. On a pullback that holds $16.20 on a closing basis we would suggest adding to the position.

Oil is still trying to making up its mind on where to go. We have no opinion or positions currently but will most likely have suggestions in the coming weeks. Natural gas looks to close at slightly better levels, we still like 75 cent January call spreads.

Fresh short entries in cocoa enjoyed sliding prices but unfortunately for December puts, too little too late. Sugar gave up 3.5% today; we bought yesterday for clients…not the best timing. We continue to think March will return to 25/26 cents. The trend line all year comes in around 22 cents, if this level gives way we may re-evaluate.

FOMC: No change in rates and no significant changes in the verbiage as expected. There was mention of inflation expectations but excessive and extended remained in their statement. The problem I see with no change in their course is they are headed down the wrong road, the market is giving the Fed too much credit on getting their timing right. I’m not smart enough to know if they move too early or too late but I’m confident they will get it wrong.

As for the markets, the dollar has started its move lower and virtually all commodities benefited. Oil should close back above $80 as we will be looking for long opportunities for clients. Clients are getting hit on their recent purchase of natural gas, prices are down by 3.5% today… stay the course. Equities trade higher but at this moment we have no opinion, it could go either way?

Dollar up commodities down, stocks up oil up, stocks down, Treasuries up… well, not today. Be wary of the decoupling as new relationships may be forming.

We are thankful we took oil shorts off yesterday for clients, albeit at a small loss being prices were higher by $1.25 today as of this post. Natural gas is higher by 2%, clients were able to buy the January $5.50/6.25 spreads recommended yesterday at slightly better levels today paying $1800/per.

Oil traded to new lows but lower levels could not hold. We advised clients to take their January put spreads off at break-even and moved that money into longs in natural gas. Natty prices were lower by 4% trading to their lowest level since mid-September. Prices have moved lower 8 out of the last 9 sessions, a move we feel is unsustainable. Clients bought January $5.50/6.25 call spreads for $2100.

Cocoa has formed an interim top; for new entries we would advise selling rallies with stops above the recent highs. December puts are running out of time for clients, we need prices to collapse. Sugar moved higher, we will re-evaluate long entries for clients and may be willing to buy higher than previous stated levels, stay tuned. OJ was lower by almost 4%, clients put in gtc profit orders today on their January puts. Coffee was higher by 5% today, on what was rumored to be fund buying. We have no client exposure.