Matthew Bradbard

Today in Commodities: Strength vs. Dollar Weakness

UPDATE: As of this post the KCBOT/CBOT spread was showing a slight profit, as of settlement today clients are now slightly down on the trade. We bought KCBOT at 4 cent premium to CBOT wheat expecting a 14 cent premium to KCBOT.

Today in Commodities: U.S. Dollar on the Doorstep

Close we're looking for the eur/usd to move down just like in FX but for the other cross you mentioned we're looking for the Loonie to depreciate and in FX it is the reciprocal. So far so good. We hit our target on the downside today in the Loonie and are expecting a touch more in the Euro. Additionally for other currencies we advised clients to buy the Yen today...opposite in FX.


On Oct 27 04:59 PM User 456427 wrote:

> Sorry, I am new to this. When you say that you like selling rallies
> in the Euro and Loonie does that mean that you are selling EUR vs
> USD as the EURUSD pair goes up and selling USD vs CAD as the USDCAD
> pair as the USDCAD pair goes up? If so, then doesn

Today in Commodities: U.S. Dollar on the Doorstep

JIMBO...the author predicted $16 when silver was at $18 so it has almost reached his target. In agreement $20 is doable maybe early next year.


On Oct 28 01:47 PM jimbo's gravy train wrote:

> Don't panic with SLV. Our author just gave a staggering prediction
> of $16 for silver right about the time it hit $16. WOW, what an insight!
> Now, on to a real prediction... stay with silver. It is a very volatile
> investment but ultimately it will hit $20 in the next few months,
> possibly by year's end. Stick with it and enjoy the benefits. If
> you're not in, its at bargain prices right now! Get better than 25%
> return on your investment in only 2-3 months. Where else can you
> get that? BUY SLV now and watch it hit $20, then sell and let's plan
> the victory party!

Today in Commodities: U.S. Dollar on the Doorstep

oats traded lower and corn and beans faltered as well losing another 2% in corn and 4.5% in wheat.

SHOULD BE corn and wheat NOT corn and beans...sorry for the confusion

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

In this example we had clients long January $6/7 call spreads in natural gas; a bullish play. They were at a profit but we did not want to leave the trade. So as opposed to exiting we advised clients to buy November $4.25 puts. The idea was if we came in Monday and natural gas prices were down we would make up the loss on the call spread with a profit on the puts. How it played out natural gas continued to move higher so we cut losses on our hedge (November puts) and exited the longs. The net result was less of a profit had we not done the puts.
Definition:
An investment made in order to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a security, by taking an offsetting position in a related security, such as an option or a short sale.


On Oct 20 05:36 PM woodennickels wrote:

> Can you explain how a hedge works again?
>
> "This time the hedge hurt instead of helped, but sometimes being
> conservative makes you less money, other times it saves you money."

Today in Commodities: Don't Fight the Tape

Yes we concur nat gas is a buy if prices come down just a touch more...see previous posts. In terms of crude we prefer to buy a setback as opposed to get short. If you chose to get short DO use a tight stop. On a trade out of the bollinger bands on the daily chart which is just above $76 on the November contract we would take a loss. If you do get a break trail your stop lower.


On Oct 14 06:38 PM Melsen wrote:

> By your way of writing I guess you haven't gone long NG yet. I agree
> with you and in order to go long I'll wait for at least a 50% retracement.
> Considering the way it's going even a 61.8% would be in the playbook
> I think, that would put the December contract in the range of $4.50-$5
> that we've been trading on the November contract. Crude IMO will
> reverse shortly. If it can't get a convincing bid over $75 under
> these conditions, when will it? Gone short crude today with a tight
> stop, just in case it rallies all the way to $80. Do you think that
> was too much of a risk?

Today in Commodities: Don't Fight the Tape

We are positioned long in the March 10' contract for clients expecting a re-test of 25.50. We will remain long as long as prices do not trade below 21.00.


On Oct 14 04:20 PM rrdaniel wrote:

> Any thoughts on sugar ? Still going long ?

Today in Commodities: Suspend Your Disbelief

www.mbwealth.com/artic...

Who's the Jackass now? Report written in Nov 08' when prices of silver were $9/ounce. Pacwoman maybe you should look at our recent posts before making any rash judgements on our trades. And yes guilty as charged I took a weeks vacation, I suggest you need some time off work as you seem to be very angry.


On Oct 13 05:54 PM picman wrote:

> Here's another idiot. We recommend buying Gold but hold off on Silver.
> What a moron. These two commodities go hand in hand almost all the
> time. Gold has soared above $1,000 and this jackass was on vacation.
> So he misses the boat but advises jumping on anyway. thats like saying
> the jets are favored by 7 points this week but ask me at the beginning
> of the fourth quarter what team to bet. I have been on board with
> Silver since late August and all along i've stated that jumping on
> and off the Silver bandwagon is foolish since its so hard to know
> highs and lows. Bottom line, as I said over a month ago, Silver breaks
> $20 an ounce before the year is over. These bandwagon jumpers are
> completely useless always giving us advice after the fact. How do
> these clowns get these jobs anyway???? Goooo SLV! right through $20
> and what Merry Christmas those of us with faith will enjoy!

Today in Commodities: Quarterly Window Dressing

1st paragraph should read...

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays. NOT

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part wheat, coffee, OJ, commodity, futures, art, being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays.

Today in Commodities: 8 Years Later, the Bull Is Alive

9/11 happened 8 years ago. There was a bull market in commodities then just getting under way and 8 years later there is still a bull market in commodities??


On Sep 14 12:18 AM Hmm?! wrote:

> Did I miss something? You did not really address the title of this
> article?

Today in Commodities: Perception Isn't Reality

$4000/per 100 troy ounce futures contract...that's the difference


On Sep 10 08:01 PM Mistrofan wrote:

> This time I disagree with you on Gold and Silver. I would love to
> see gain theSilver at $12-$13 to build a position there - but I don't
> think that will happened. My estiamte is that we finally entered
> the last sustainable bull phase for precious metals, and will be
> hard to ketch-up with the gold prices up to $2200. So, what is the
> difference between an entry point at $990 vs. $950 when you know
> what is coming anymay?

Today in Commodities: Is 9 Your Lucky Number?

154 refers to yield in corn not the price...just to clarify.


On Sep 09 04:46 PM bondsarebears wrote:

> 154? If that's the flat price they're predicting, I'll eat my business
> card. We know corn and beans are heading for a high yielding harvest
> ( bullish on the basis in the country) but 154? We'll wait until
> Friday.
> As for Wheat, I'm am Grizzly.

Today in Commodities: Living Up to Expectations

Hammer
Did someone hit you in the head with a hammer? I am long $1 call spreads not futures so though clients are down they are still in expecting a move higher. See previous posts. Clients that listened to me are down in this trade but most are also long sugar and silver from much lower levels. It is called diversification.


On Sep 03 05:41 PM hammer wrote:

> "There was a new 7 1/2 year low in natural gas today as prices are
> currently down 20 cents. LET ME SAY THIS LOUD AND CLEAR: WE MAY BE
> WRONG BEING LONG FOR THE NEXT 60 DAYS BUT WE WILL KEEP A PORTION
> OF OUR CLIENTS' COMMODITY PORTFOLIO LONG NATURAL GAS AS TO BE THERE
> WHEN PRICES GET BACK IN LINE, whether that be two, three or four
> months from now."
>
> Long and terribly wrong. A week ago you were long NGV09 at $3.20/mmbtu,
> now its $2.50/mmbu. A mere 22% loss. The initial and maintenance
> margin for 1 NYMEX NG contract is $10,575. You would have lost $7,000/$10,575
> or 71% on your initial investment. Hopefully your audience has ignored
> your bad advice.
>
> Ask yourself why NG is at $2.50 and you"ll realize why simple technical
> analysis and historical analogies of crude:natural gas are inane
> and misguided.
>
> NGX09 has another 10% decline and NGZ09-NGF10 have even more. The
> contango is unprecedented and WILL come in. Commodities are zero
> and Matt is trying to convince you it is an investment. It isn't,
> its a trading asset.

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

Amaranth went all in on a futures calendar spread so what they were doing was much more risky than what I'm attempting to do. In terms of a hedge fund ..that is speculation?? Who knows. I expect natural gas prices to be higher within the next 30/90 days and then potentially $6/7 1 yr from now.


On Sep 02 08:17 PM aureus wrote:

> Hi Matthew,
> I basically share your opinion on natural gas. But recently I read
> the story of the Amaranth downfall. As an experienced commodity trader,
> you surely know all about this. And don´t you have a slight fear
> that in our quite difficult environment today, there could be a couple
> of big hedgefunds out there, beeing long in natural gas, that suddenly
> could be forced to liqudate all their positions due to margin calls
> - with great downward consequences for the natural gas market. <br/>
>
> I would be very glad for a comment on this!
>
> Regards
> Aureus

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

I am qouting November because that is the month I'm trading not October. Get a hobby!


On Sep 02 10:59 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> "A double bottom at $2.86 in natural gas… it is too early to say."
>
>
>
> You know i have accused you of bottom calling on NG, now your calling
> DOUBLE BOTTOMS?
>
> BTW the price now is 2.68, so your not even close!