Market has gotten ahead of itself and we expect a mild set back virtually commodity wide. We're anticipating 40 cents in corn, 60 cents in soybeans and 70 cents in wheat.
Look at the December futures..Selling above .9700 and buying under .9400 has worked for the last 5 months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
I don't feel comfortable being short gold, silver or crude oil in this environment. You do not have to agree that's what makes a market. I'm more interested in getting clients long from lower levels.
Today in Commodities: A Fed Non-Decision [View article]
I think I speak for 2000 of our 2100+ followers we liked it better when you were not a follower. You had voiced several months ago that you were done following but your back we ask WHY?? For starters understand I run a commodity brokerage firm; we trade on behalf of clients 50+ commodities this is not a silver firm. I have trailed stops for some of our aggressive clients and lightened up on futures for others while some have left the trade all together. As for options this market is too volatile to trails stops so I left the trade all together..albeit too early when looking in hindsight. What you and many fail to recognize is LEVERAGE, you own most likely 100 shares of SLV and have made a few dollars while every $1 move in the futures market on a standard 5000 ounce contracts equates to $5,000/contract. You do the math!! All though silver has been a great market of late lets look at some of the other commodities that you fail to follow and clients have been involved.....in the last 3 months cocoa 29 year high, sugar 33 year high, coffee 13 year high, cotton 15 year high, cattle near record high, gold record high, corn 2 1/2 year high, Japanese Yen 15 year high and the list goes on... I think you see the point. When silver corrects as it always does clients will be advised to gain bullish exposure again.
Today in Commodities: There's Always a Bull Market Somewhere [View article]
I do not trade a lot of copper because the lack of liquidity and the extreme volatility. I am mildly bullish copper and would expect the December contract to track higher approaching $3.60 in the coming weeks. I’d be wiling to get short from higher levels with stops above the April highs in the weeks to come. The only way I would change my mind is if we see a violent leg down in the stock indices and consecutive closes below $3.23 in which I would then advise short positions.
Today in Commodities: Jobless Recovery, Anyone? [View article]
The correlations seem to be strong with the S&P and oil currently. We are anticipating a range trade in the S&P. If we are correct on our projection in oil reaching $80 in the coming weeks that likely means the S&P trades back over 1100. Remember we could be wrong on both of these or the correlation trade may be broken temporarily.
Today in Commodities: Market Indecision [View article]
That is a great question but not a simple answer. It depends on the account size and risk tolerance of the customer. If looking to own multiple positions we suggest scaling in and adding to a winner and NOT to buy your full allocation. Additionally some will place stops other could sell calls or purchase puts as an alternative. To complicate things more there is a mini-futures contract which is 1/4 of the size: $25 a penny vs. $100 a penny. The bottom line I'm thinking 45-90 days from now natural gas could be 10-15% higher in prices. Clients need to decide what is the best way to play the trade IF they agree.
Today in Commodities: End of a Busy Week [View article]
I'm assuming SCG is a stock or etf which I trade neither.For recommendations in commodity futures and options I wil try to help; other vehicles you may need to look elsewhere.
Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
The entire Ag complex has jumped on the back of wheat and will move in my opinion whatever direction wheat moves. The trade is extremely risky being Russia could lift the export ban at any time and weather in S.America and the locust situation in Australia are two more wild cards. If we get a break lower ahead of next weeks USDA report we will likely be a buyer of corn for clients ...stay tuned. As for a pairs trade when the dust settles in the next few days we will try to buy December KCBOT and sell December CBOT wheat. Typically KCBOT is a t a premium and as of this post it is trading at a 30 cent discount. This should not last but where it bottoms is beyond me? In the last 10 day this spread has widened 40 cents; which would reflect a $2000 move per spread.
Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
Eventually the entire Treasury complex should crash and burn..Come on 2-4% tieing up money for 2-3 decades??? My opinion is money is there as to not lose elsewhere. I will wait for the FOMC meeting next week before making a move and regular readers will know when we make a move for clients. We will likely have some trade suggestion in futures and options. We have bearish plays on our radar but have yet to make a move.
Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
No not 16% in a day...futures have moved about 90% in just over one month...what I'm saying is WHEN this market finds a top it will tumble. It may take weeks to find a top but I would not want to be long when prices roll over as I would expect prices to fall 20-30% real quick.
Today in Commodities: Higher or Lower? [View article]
It means in the short run (next 2 weeks) we could track higher in the indices...10750-10800 in the Dow, 1135-1150 in the S&P and then prices roll over and we expect to see a 10% plus sell off into the fall. We think the dollar will snap back in the coming weeks 5% and other crosses with the exception of the Yen will retrace. As for energies we think Crude is within $2-3 of an interim top and oil and the distillates could pullback this month. Hopefully this gives you a clearer picture. For more detailed info subscribe to our weekly commentary issued every Monday.
Today in Commodities: Deflation Curveball [View article]
Commodities as an asset class is NOT conservative but I try to trade conservatively. We try not to fully margin our accounts. Trade a combination of futures and options and a variety of commodity sectors. I track about 50-60 different commodities ranging from soybeans to silver, crude oil to the live cattle market. We will typically have clients positioned in 5-10 markets at a time some long positions other markets short positions, some trades in options and others in futures. As for our trading decisions I rely heavily on technical analyses but I also consider the fundamental on my swing and position trades. As you mentioned the Macro view I think traders need to pay attention to this for the trend but not so much for your entry and exit. I have found over the years one needs to pay attention to the weather, correlations between markets, the flow of the fund money, and seasonality. Most importantly as a commodity trader always remember there is substantial risk and part performance is not indicative of future results.
Today in Commodities: Market Vulnerability [View article]
Today in Commodities: False Hope [View article]
Today in Commodities: False Hope [View article]
Today in Commodities: False Hope [View article]
Today in Commodities: A Fed Non-Decision [View article]
Today in Commodities: If and When [View article]
Today in Commodities: There's Always a Bull Market Somewhere [View article]
Today in Commodities: Jobless Recovery, Anyone? [View article]
Today in Commodities: Market Indecision [View article]
Today in Commodities: End of a Busy Week [View article]
Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
Today in Commodities: Higher or Lower? [View article]
Today in Commodities: Deflation Curveball [View article]