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Matthew Bradbard  

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  • Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
    The entire Ag complex has jumped on the back of wheat and will move in my opinion whatever direction wheat moves. The trade is extremely risky being Russia could lift the export ban at any time and weather in S.America and the locust situation in Australia are two more wild cards. If we get a break lower ahead of next weeks USDA report we will likely be a buyer of corn for clients ...stay tuned. As for a pairs trade when the dust settles in the next few days we will try to buy December KCBOT and sell December CBOT wheat. Typically KCBOT is a t a premium and as of this post it is trading at a 30 cent discount. This should not last but where it bottoms is beyond me? In the last 10 day this spread has widened 40 cents; which would reflect a $2000 move per spread.
    Aug 6, 2010. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
    Eventually the entire Treasury complex should crash and burn..Come on 2-4% tieing up money for 2-3 decades??? My opinion is money is there as to not lose elsewhere. I will wait for the FOMC meeting next week before making a move and regular readers will know when we make a move for clients. We will likely have some trade suggestion in futures and options. We have bearish plays on our radar but have yet to make a move.
    Aug 6, 2010. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Russia Keeps Things Interesting [View article]
    No not 16% in a day...futures have moved about 90% in just over one month...what I'm saying is WHEN this market finds a top it will tumble. It may take weeks to find a top but I would not want to be long when prices roll over as I would expect prices to fall 20-30% real quick.
    Aug 6, 2010. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Higher or Lower? [View article]
    It means in the short run (next 2 weeks) we could track higher in the indices...10750-10800 in the Dow, 1135-1150 in the S&P and then prices roll over and we expect to see a 10% plus sell off into the fall. We think the dollar will snap back in the coming weeks 5% and other crosses with the exception of the Yen will retrace. As for energies we think Crude is within $2-3 of an interim top and oil and the distillates could pullback this month. Hopefully this gives you a clearer picture. For more detailed info subscribe to our weekly commentary issued every Monday.
    Aug 4, 2010. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Deflation Curveball [View article]
    Commodities as an asset class is NOT conservative but I try to trade conservatively. We try not to fully margin our accounts. Trade a combination of futures and options and a variety of commodity sectors. I track about 50-60 different commodities ranging from soybeans to silver, crude oil to the live cattle market. We will typically have clients positioned in 5-10 markets at a time some long positions other markets short positions, some trades in options and others in futures. As for our trading decisions I rely heavily on technical analyses but I also consider the fundamental on my swing and position trades. As you mentioned the Macro view I think traders need to pay attention to this for the trend but not so much for your entry and exit. I have found over the years one needs to pay attention to the weather, correlations between markets, the flow of the fund money, and seasonality. Most importantly as a commodity trader always remember there is substantial risk and part performance is not indicative of future results.
    Jul 30, 2010. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Time to Make a Decision [View article]
    SBV10 has appreciated 32% in the last 7 weeks. If you are not on board the train yet I would say you missed it. I feel you run the risk of a 10% correction at any point. If you notice the front month has moved in the futures more than the back months because of deliveries to the Middle East ahead of Ramadan. Once that stops I would expect a move lower. Next upside resistance is 19.50; 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. On the daily chart prices are overbought, I would hold off on a long thinking we could get a set back to 16-16.50.
    Jul 27, 2010. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Mr. Market Dislikes Changes [View article]
    Futures traders should scale into shorts=bearish
    Options traders bought September 1075-1000 put spreads =bearish
    In case I'm wrong they also bought August 1150 calls. If prices trade higher which could happen short term they would be advised to take a profit on their August calls and hold expecting for trade lower on the original positions.
    Jul 15, 2010. 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Indexes Break Win Streak [View article]
    With prices above the pivot point we would expect momentum higher with prices below the pivot point we would expect price action lower.
    Jul 15, 2010. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Mr. Market Dislikes Changes [View article]
    I am sorry good catch should be scaling into shorts not longs.
    Jul 15, 2010. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Back to Business [View article]
    That is correct but I pay attention to the fundamentals as well. As a general rule if both he fundamental picture and technicals are assaying the same thing I will take larger positions for clients.
    Jul 12, 2010. 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Climbing the Wall of Worry [View article]
    Nice catch that is correct $4.79 NOT $5.79...wishfull thinking.
    Jun 16, 2010. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Bet on Rising Interest Rates [View article]
    What about buying puts or getting short long dated Euro-dollar futures to play higher interest rates?
    Jun 15, 2010. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Trade Off the Indices [View article]
    We would start to explore shorts in the S&P above 1180 but if lucky we may get an opportunity to be a seller back above 1100 for clients.

    The first price should be 1080.
    Jun 9, 2010. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: I Smell a Correction [View article]
    $75 call spreads in December gold $1275/1350
    Jun 8, 2010. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: I Smell a Correction [View article]
    I am unclear on what you're trying to say here please clarify???
    Jun 7, 2010. 04:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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