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Matthew Bradbard

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  • Today in Commodities: The Ides of March [View article]
    I trade commodity futures and options I do not trade etf's. Whenever I give an opinion understand it is for the price of the underlying commodity and not the etf. I do not keep up with the correlations so bear that in mind. Sugar prices have dropped 40% in the last 7 weeks and does not look like they its done. I have tried to catch this falling knife and it has cost me. I would refrain until the selling abates. Could we get back to the March low which is about another 23% lower..Anything is possible. If you are looking for something to buy I like corn.
    Mar 16 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: The Ides of March [View article]
    Errol I got clients in the trade from higher levels but I like the trade and think prices are too low at these levels. For new entries I recommend scaling into long futures or mini-futures in May contracts and for options I am advising 50 cent call spreads in June. I am expecting May futures to trade back over $5 in the next 3-5 weeks. That would be a move in the underlying commodity of about 12%. You know where I stand on cattle... on the sidelines wanting to be short.
    Mar 16 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Spring Break? [View article]
    There are more reasons to be short than long but yet the market still is climbing so I am waiting for a top to get clients short.
    Cash divergence says futures should come down, Goldman roll should have pressured April, the futures are overbought, seasonally prices should come off, grain price action, weather but yet we are at fresh highs.
    A valuable lesson do not fight the trend! We will get short at some point again and we will let you know in our blogs and commentaries.
    Mar 15 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Where Next? [View article]
    Follow the trade and I'll let you know when I get out at a profit or a loss.
    Mar 15 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Where Next? [View article]
    I have not noticed this, what specific commodities have you seen this in?
    Mar 15 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Year Later: Putting the Rally Into Perspective [View article]
    Most of the commodities that we trade for clients are extremely liquid so stops are generally not a problem. Granted in some circumstances there can be slippage and a market can gap higher or lower but I can count on one hand how many times there has been a dramatic difference in my career. Do not misinterpret me if you hold a futures position into a NFP # or USDA report it can get ugly but we generally try not to do that.
    As for the spread if you are trading liquid markets that include currencies, Treasuries, metals, energies, agriculture the bid/asks are reasonable by my definition. Additionally factor in the leverage and if your fees that you pay are reasonable you need not see much more than a hiccup to reach break-even on futures trades, As for options depending on the premium paid you would need to see a larger incremental move. If you can pick a specific commodity I would be happy to elaborate.
    Mar 11 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Signs of an Interim Top [View article]
    If futures can get below 1090 this month we would most likely see 1050 some time in April. Looking at the weekly chart for the last 3 years the 50 day MA is 1015 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is 1015 as well so if we ever get a correction that would most likely serve as a good exit door.
    Mar 11 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: It's Better on the Sidelines [View article]
    1.) 50% Fibonacci retracement is 75.75 on the May contract
    2.) We are above the cost of production
    3.) More acres are expected to shift into cotton at these prices; planting intentions that comes out March 31 should confirm that.
    4.) We are expecting g another leg down in the economy and cotton is one of the most sensitive commodities; it should be dragged down by weakness in other markets.
    Mar 5 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Month-End Window Dressing [View article]
    Exports have been relatively resilent in the face of a strengthening dollar as well as potential planting delays are being talked about.

    We are suggesting clients to be positioned long corn as viewing it as the best risk/reward trade in agriculture.
    Mar 1 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Bad News and Good News [View article]
    Not on the upside in this contract but a similar move down happened in the fall of 2008. It is not unheard of for cotton or other commodities to have wild swings but 20% in 3 weeks I think is a bit much. As for the trade we sold deep out of the money call options to finance just out of the money puts for clients and have yet to get short futures until we are convinced a top is in.
    Feb 26 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Bad News and Good News [View article]
    Price targets are off April chart but we suggest trading May or June so as to stay in the trade and avoid a roll...$5.20, 5.40, 5.58, 5.85, 6.15. We will most likely lighten up or exit on a trade near $5.50.
    Feb 26 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Ignoring the Noise [View article]
    Tony how would you play it? Thru futures and options a stock or etf?
    Feb 23 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: WhoDat Nation [View article]
    I Believe Crude will get there but far from a straight line. There should be a number of opportunties to go both long and short between now and then in my opinion. We have no fresh entries for clients. Currently clients hold May call spreads and are under water. If and when we get a $3-5 pop higher they should be able to cover their position with minimal damage if not a slight profit.
    Feb 8 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Crude Advances [View article]
    Could be volatile on the report but YES we still are expecting higher pricing.
    Feb 3 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
    Do not trade AL, HG has closed below the 40 day moving average and we think there could be some more pressure. If prices do not get back over $3.30 in the next few session I think a test of $3 is possible. Most of our metal trades for clients are in gold and silver so I do not follow the others as closely.
    Jan 28 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment