One Year Later: Putting the Rally Into Perspective [View article]
Most of the commodities that we trade for clients are extremely liquid so stops are generally not a problem. Granted in some circumstances there can be slippage and a market can gap higher or lower but I can count on one hand how many times there has been a dramatic difference in my career. Do not misinterpret me if you hold a futures position into a NFP # or USDA report it can get ugly but we generally try not to do that. As for the spread if you are trading liquid markets that include currencies, Treasuries, metals, energies, agriculture the bid/asks are reasonable by my definition. Additionally factor in the leverage and if your fees that you pay are reasonable you need not see much more than a hiccup to reach break-even on futures trades, As for options depending on the premium paid you would need to see a larger incremental move. If you can pick a specific commodity I would be happy to elaborate.
Today in Commodities: Signs of an Interim Top [View article]
If futures can get below 1090 this month we would most likely see 1050 some time in April. Looking at the weekly chart for the last 3 years the 50 day MA is 1015 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is 1015 as well so if we ever get a correction that would most likely serve as a good exit door.
Today in Commodities: It's Better on the Sidelines [View article]
1.) 50% Fibonacci retracement is 75.75 on the May contract 2.) We are above the cost of production 3.) More acres are expected to shift into cotton at these prices; planting intentions that comes out March 31 should confirm that. 4.) We are expecting g another leg down in the economy and cotton is one of the most sensitive commodities; it should be dragged down by weakness in other markets.
Commodities Today: Bad News and Good News [View article]
Not on the upside in this contract but a similar move down happened in the fall of 2008. It is not unheard of for cotton or other commodities to have wild swings but 20% in 3 weeks I think is a bit much. As for the trade we sold deep out of the money call options to finance just out of the money puts for clients and have yet to get short futures until we are convinced a top is in.
Commodities Today: Bad News and Good News [View article]
Price targets are off April chart but we suggest trading May or June so as to stay in the trade and avoid a roll...$5.20, 5.40, 5.58, 5.85, 6.15. We will most likely lighten up or exit on a trade near $5.50.
I Believe Crude will get there but far from a straight line. There should be a number of opportunties to go both long and short between now and then in my opinion. We have no fresh entries for clients. Currently clients hold May call spreads and are under water. If and when we get a $3-5 pop higher they should be able to cover their position with minimal damage if not a slight profit.
Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
Do not trade AL, HG has closed below the 40 day moving average and we think there could be some more pressure. If prices do not get back over $3.30 in the next few session I think a test of $3 is possible. Most of our metal trades for clients are in gold and silver so I do not follow the others as closely.
Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
No change we think the correction that has just happened taking prices $10/11 lower has overshot to the downside and we expect a $4-6 pop higher in prices. We have positioned clients in May call spreads to take advantage of that.
Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
Common misconception NOT talking the currency but rather the debt instrument..Euro-dolla... short end of the yield curve! Prices are at or near contract highs. I would advise the December 10 or March 11 contracts.
Could not agree more we are thinking once December corn bottoms which we expect to be in the very near future prices should see a 25% appreciation by years end. I will be issuing a special corn report shortly with some trade suggestions.
Today in Commodities: Where Next? [View article]
One Year Later: Putting the Rally Into Perspective [View article]
As for the spread if you are trading liquid markets that include currencies, Treasuries, metals, energies, agriculture the bid/asks are reasonable by my definition. Additionally factor in the leverage and if your fees that you pay are reasonable you need not see much more than a hiccup to reach break-even on futures trades, As for options depending on the premium paid you would need to see a larger incremental move. If you can pick a specific commodity I would be happy to elaborate.
Today in Commodities: Signs of an Interim Top [View article]
Today in Commodities: It's Better on the Sidelines [View article]
2.) We are above the cost of production
3.) More acres are expected to shift into cotton at these prices; planting intentions that comes out March 31 should confirm that.
4.) We are expecting g another leg down in the economy and cotton is one of the most sensitive commodities; it should be dragged down by weakness in other markets.
Today in Commodities: Month-End Window Dressing [View article]
We are suggesting clients to be positioned long corn as viewing it as the best risk/reward trade in agriculture.
Commodities Today: Bad News and Good News [View article]
Commodities Today: Bad News and Good News [View article]
Today in Commodities: Ignoring the Noise [View article]
Commodities Today: WhoDat Nation [View article]
Today in Commodities: Crude Advances [View article]
Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
Today in Commodities: Putting FOMC in Rearview Mirror [View article]
Today in Commodities: Day-Trading [View article]
Today in Commodities: Batten Down the Hatches [View article]
SHOULD BE from today and Friday's low