Matthew Bradbard

Today in Commodities: A Pause Before the Next Surge

Correct a trade over $17.60 expect $19 a trade below $16.90 expect $16.15. Only my opinion!


On Dec 15 10:31 AM jimbo's gravy train wrote:

> " A settlement back over $17.60 should mean $19 in the immediate
> future."
>
> Hey, a firm prediction... I like that. So if I am understanding this
> correctly, you are saying if silver reaches 17.60, you expect the
> climb to continue through the $19 mark. Is that correct? It would
> be nice to see silver back near $20 where it belongs.

Today in Commodities: A Pause Before the Next Surge

Yesterday tyh10 lost 1 ticks, ush10 gained 12 ticks...if my math is correct that is a gain of 13 ticks. Clients are long ush10/short tyh10. I apologize if I was not clear on their position. We are expecting ush10 to trade at a premium to tyh10. Put in gtc profit today at 1'26 premium to ush10.


On Dec 15 08:26 AM Prince Saleh wrote:

> the march NOB spread didn't gain, it went 7 weak yesterday! MAR 10yr
> made new lows!

Today in Commodities: Crouching Tiger Hidden Commodity

Matthew does not bold words seeking alpha does and speaking of first grade this name calling is uncalled for.


On Dec 10 05:10 PM Seeking-Losses(SL) wrote:

> Hey Mathew, this is not 1st grade. You don't get bonus points for
> underlining the nouns. Maybe when you get to adjectives in your hooked
> on phonics course you bold those, too. wheeee!
>
> good articles financeopinionss.blogs...

Today in Commodities: As the Greenback Turns

We should see some good resistance in the March contract between $17/17.40.

Should be support NOT resistance..my mistake

Today in Commodities: Looking for More Evidence

I SUGGEST YOU RE-READ THE COMMENTS AND PERHAPS GET A NEW PRESCRIPTION FOR YOUR MEDS.

12/1/9 Gold has traded above $1200 closing just below on the February contract. The question is now that this level has been achieved will investors book profit or will new buyers take gold to higher levels. All clients that are long futures are suggested to have some sort of option protection. Silver broke to new highs today; the May $3 call spreads gained nicely though we may be looking for an exit door if tomorrow is anything like today.
12/2/9 We took another profit in silver today on the May call spreads bought for clients just last week. On a correction we will buy again. We have been very active trading in and out of silver…for those wishing to buy and hold that is your choice not the way my clients and I trade. The trend is up in gold and I’m incapable of picking a top so we have clients that remain long BUT we highly recommend option protection as a nasty move lower is inevitable at some point.
12/3/9 We advised clients to book profits and exit all their gold today. We used the intra-day set back in silver this morning to buy silver. Clients that took profit yesterday are back long today from lower levels. We suggested call spreads in case of a deeper correction. On a trade above $19.50 in March expect $20 plus where we will look to book partial profits.

12/4/9 I’m pretty sure I cautioned metals traders about a nasty correction, well low and behold a 5% plus decline in gold and almost 4% in silver. Gold held the 18 day moving average but from yesterdays high prices are lower by $70/ounce and there could be more downside. This trade is far from over in our opinion but a trade down to $1100 is not out of the question. As for silver we see support at $18.20 followed by $17.75 in the March contract. Clients own March call spreads and are carrying a loss but we are confident that prices will trade back above $19.50 after the current correction. Days like today remind me why I do not buy and sit on my gold and silver positions for clients.

12/7/9 Gold has come off roughly 5% in the last 3 sessions and silver about 6.5%. We are suggesting using this set back to be a buyer in both metals. In recent sessions we’ve been buyers of Silver $2 call spreads for clients. We feel there is a little more downside, as for long entries February gold closer to $1100 and March silver closer to $17.50.

On Dec 07 09:17 PM picman wrote:

> "as for long entries February gold closer to $1100 and March silver
> closer to $17.50"
>
> Matthew, can you please make up your mind and stick with it??? You
> called silver at 19.50 or possibly $20 in March just two days ago
> ("On a trade above $19.50 in March expect $20 plus where we will
> look to book partial profits") and now you're lowering it to 17.50.
> This is the kind of bouncing around that destroys your credibility
> as an advisor and supports my call that most of the so called "experts"
> writing these articles are nothing of the kind. You guys change your
> minds and positions more often that you change your underwear which
> makes your opinions shallow and useless.
>
> To the readers I say, don't take these clowns too serious on anything
> they say because with every move in the market they change their
> minds. As for me, I'm still loving SLV. It was a bit disappointing
> to see it soar to $19.50 a share only to drop $2 before the week
> was over but that is the volatility we must endure to be an investor
> in metals. Forget that silly talk about $17.50 in March. Silver will
> have made its way beyond the $20 mark long before March and with
> a little bit 'o luck may be closing in on my target selling price
> of $26. As for Tuesday, look for SLV to rebound and shoot back over
> $18. This correction was inevitable because clowns like many of the
> writers we see on the internet convince people to take menial profits
> because of some graph or historical rule rather than ride it out
> and collect real money down the road. I went in around $16 and I'm
> looking for a $10 profit per share by the spring or early summer.
> Stay true to silver and it will stay true to you.

Today in Commodities: Strength vs. Dollar Weakness

UPDATE: As of this post the KCBOT/CBOT spread was showing a slight profit, as of settlement today clients are now slightly down on the trade. We bought KCBOT at 4 cent premium to CBOT wheat expecting a 14 cent premium to KCBOT.

Today in Commodities: U.S. Dollar on the Doorstep

Close we're looking for the eur/usd to move down just like in FX but for the other cross you mentioned we're looking for the Loonie to depreciate and in FX it is the reciprocal. So far so good. We hit our target on the downside today in the Loonie and are expecting a touch more in the Euro. Additionally for other currencies we advised clients to buy the Yen today...opposite in FX.


On Oct 27 04:59 PM User 456427 wrote:

> Sorry, I am new to this. When you say that you like selling rallies
> in the Euro and Loonie does that mean that you are selling EUR vs
> USD as the EURUSD pair goes up and selling USD vs CAD as the USDCAD
> pair as the USDCAD pair goes up? If so, then doesn

Today in Commodities: U.S. Dollar on the Doorstep

JIMBO...the author predicted $16 when silver was at $18 so it has almost reached his target. In agreement $20 is doable maybe early next year.


On Oct 28 01:47 PM jimbo's gravy train wrote:

> Don't panic with SLV. Our author just gave a staggering prediction
> of $16 for silver right about the time it hit $16. WOW, what an insight!
> Now, on to a real prediction... stay with silver. It is a very volatile
> investment but ultimately it will hit $20 in the next few months,
> possibly by year's end. Stick with it and enjoy the benefits. If
> you're not in, its at bargain prices right now! Get better than 25%
> return on your investment in only 2-3 months. Where else can you
> get that? BUY SLV now and watch it hit $20, then sell and let's plan
> the victory party!

Today in Commodities: U.S. Dollar on the Doorstep

oats traded lower and corn and beans faltered as well losing another 2% in corn and 4.5% in wheat.

SHOULD BE corn and wheat NOT corn and beans...sorry for the confusion

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

In this example we had clients long January $6/7 call spreads in natural gas; a bullish play. They were at a profit but we did not want to leave the trade. So as opposed to exiting we advised clients to buy November $4.25 puts. The idea was if we came in Monday and natural gas prices were down we would make up the loss on the call spread with a profit on the puts. How it played out natural gas continued to move higher so we cut losses on our hedge (November puts) and exited the longs. The net result was less of a profit had we not done the puts.
Definition:
An investment made in order to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a security, by taking an offsetting position in a related security, such as an option or a short sale.


On Oct 20 05:36 PM woodennickels wrote:

> Can you explain how a hedge works again?
>
> "This time the hedge hurt instead of helped, but sometimes being
> conservative makes you less money, other times it saves you money."

Today in Commodities: Suspend Your Disbelief

www.mbwealth.com/artic...

Who's the Jackass now? Report written in Nov 08' when prices of silver were $9/ounce. Pacwoman maybe you should look at our recent posts before making any rash judgements on our trades. And yes guilty as charged I took a weeks vacation, I suggest you need some time off work as you seem to be very angry.


On Oct 13 05:54 PM picman wrote:

> Here's another idiot. We recommend buying Gold but hold off on Silver.
> What a moron. These two commodities go hand in hand almost all the
> time. Gold has soared above $1,000 and this jackass was on vacation.
> So he misses the boat but advises jumping on anyway. thats like saying
> the jets are favored by 7 points this week but ask me at the beginning
> of the fourth quarter what team to bet. I have been on board with
> Silver since late August and all along i've stated that jumping on
> and off the Silver bandwagon is foolish since its so hard to know
> highs and lows. Bottom line, as I said over a month ago, Silver breaks
> $20 an ounce before the year is over. These bandwagon jumpers are
> completely useless always giving us advice after the fact. How do
> these clowns get these jobs anyway???? Goooo SLV! right through $20
> and what Merry Christmas those of us with faith will enjoy!

Today in Commodities: Quarterly Window Dressing

1st paragraph should read...

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays. NOT

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part wheat, coffee, OJ, commodity, futures, art, being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays.

Today in Commodities: Perception Isn't Reality

$4000/per 100 troy ounce futures contract...that's the difference


On Sep 10 08:01 PM Mistrofan wrote:

> This time I disagree with you on Gold and Silver. I would love to
> see gain theSilver at $12-$13 to build a position there - but I don't
> think that will happened. My estiamte is that we finally entered
> the last sustainable bull phase for precious metals, and will be
> hard to ketch-up with the gold prices up to $2200. So, what is the
> difference between an entry point at $990 vs. $950 when you know
> what is coming anymay?

Today in Commodities: Is 9 Your Lucky Number?

154 refers to yield in corn not the price...just to clarify.


On Sep 09 04:46 PM bondsarebears wrote:

> 154? If that's the flat price they're predicting, I'll eat my business
> card. We know corn and beans are heading for a high yielding harvest
> ( bullish on the basis in the country) but 154? We'll wait until
> Friday.
> As for Wheat, I'm am Grizzly.

Today in Commodities: Living Up to Expectations

Hammer
Did someone hit you in the head with a hammer? I am long $1 call spreads not futures so though clients are down they are still in expecting a move higher. See previous posts. Clients that listened to me are down in this trade but most are also long sugar and silver from much lower levels. It is called diversification.


On Sep 03 05:41 PM hammer wrote:

> "There was a new 7 1/2 year low in natural gas today as prices are
> currently down 20 cents. LET ME SAY THIS LOUD AND CLEAR: WE MAY BE
> WRONG BEING LONG FOR THE NEXT 60 DAYS BUT WE WILL KEEP A PORTION
> OF OUR CLIENTS' COMMODITY PORTFOLIO LONG NATURAL GAS AS TO BE THERE
> WHEN PRICES GET BACK IN LINE, whether that be two, three or four
> months from now."
>
> Long and terribly wrong. A week ago you were long NGV09 at $3.20/mmbtu,
> now its $2.50/mmbu. A mere 22% loss. The initial and maintenance
> margin for 1 NYMEX NG contract is $10,575. You would have lost $7,000/$10,575
> or 71% on your initial investment. Hopefully your audience has ignored
> your bad advice.
>
> Ask yourself why NG is at $2.50 and you"ll realize why simple technical
> analysis and historical analogies of crude:natural gas are inane
> and misguided.
>
> NGX09 has another 10% decline and NGZ09-NGF10 have even more. The
> contango is unprecedented and WILL come in. Commodities are zero
> and Matt is trying to convince you it is an investment. It isn't,
> its a trading asset.