Matthew Bradbard

Today in Commodities: A Pause Before the Next Surge

Correct a trade over $17.60 expect $19 a trade below $16.90 expect $16.15. Only my opinion!


On Dec 15 10:31 AM jimbo's gravy train wrote:

> " A settlement back over $17.60 should mean $19 in the immediate
> future."
>
> Hey, a firm prediction... I like that. So if I am understanding this
> correctly, you are saying if silver reaches 17.60, you expect the
> climb to continue through the $19 mark. Is that correct? It would
> be nice to see silver back near $20 where it belongs.

Today in Commodities: A Pause Before the Next Surge

Yesterday tyh10 lost 1 ticks, ush10 gained 12 ticks...if my math is correct that is a gain of 13 ticks. Clients are long ush10/short tyh10. I apologize if I was not clear on their position. We are expecting ush10 to trade at a premium to tyh10. Put in gtc profit today at 1'26 premium to ush10.


On Dec 15 08:26 AM Prince Saleh wrote:

> the march NOB spread didn't gain, it went 7 weak yesterday! MAR 10yr
> made new lows!

Today in Commodities: Crouching Tiger Hidden Commodity

Matthew does not bold words seeking alpha does and speaking of first grade this name calling is uncalled for.


On Dec 10 05:10 PM Seeking-Losses(SL) wrote:

> Hey Mathew, this is not 1st grade. You don't get bonus points for
> underlining the nouns. Maybe when you get to adjectives in your hooked
> on phonics course you bold those, too. wheeee!
>
> good articles financeopinionss.blogs...

Today in Commodities: Looking for More Evidence

I SUGGEST YOU RE-READ THE COMMENTS AND PERHAPS GET A NEW PRESCRIPTION FOR YOUR MEDS.

12/1/9 Gold has traded above $1200 closing just below on the February contract. The question is now that this level has been achieved will investors book profit or will new buyers take gold to higher levels. All clients that are long futures are suggested to have some sort of option protection. Silver broke to new highs today; the May $3 call spreads gained nicely though we may be looking for an exit door if tomorrow is anything like today.
12/2/9 We took another profit in silver today on the May call spreads bought for clients just last week. On a correction we will buy again. We have been very active trading in and out of silver…for those wishing to buy and hold that is your choice not the way my clients and I trade. The trend is up in gold and I’m incapable of picking a top so we have clients that remain long BUT we highly recommend option protection as a nasty move lower is inevitable at some point.
12/3/9 We advised clients to book profits and exit all their gold today. We used the intra-day set back in silver this morning to buy silver. Clients that took profit yesterday are back long today from lower levels. We suggested call spreads in case of a deeper correction. On a trade above $19.50 in March expect $20 plus where we will look to book partial profits.

12/4/9 I’m pretty sure I cautioned metals traders about a nasty correction, well low and behold a 5% plus decline in gold and almost 4% in silver. Gold held the 18 day moving average but from yesterdays high prices are lower by $70/ounce and there could be more downside. This trade is far from over in our opinion but a trade down to $1100 is not out of the question. As for silver we see support at $18.20 followed by $17.75 in the March contract. Clients own March call spreads and are carrying a loss but we are confident that prices will trade back above $19.50 after the current correction. Days like today remind me why I do not buy and sit on my gold and silver positions for clients.

12/7/9 Gold has come off roughly 5% in the last 3 sessions and silver about 6.5%. We are suggesting using this set back to be a buyer in both metals. In recent sessions we’ve been buyers of Silver $2 call spreads for clients. We feel there is a little more downside, as for long entries February gold closer to $1100 and March silver closer to $17.50.

On Dec 07 09:17 PM picman wrote:

> "as for long entries February gold closer to $1100 and March silver
> closer to $17.50"
>
> Matthew, can you please make up your mind and stick with it??? You
> called silver at 19.50 or possibly $20 in March just two days ago
> ("On a trade above $19.50 in March expect $20 plus where we will
> look to book partial profits") and now you're lowering it to 17.50.
> This is the kind of bouncing around that destroys your credibility
> as an advisor and supports my call that most of the so called "experts"
> writing these articles are nothing of the kind. You guys change your
> minds and positions more often that you change your underwear which
> makes your opinions shallow and useless.
>
> To the readers I say, don't take these clowns too serious on anything
> they say because with every move in the market they change their
> minds. As for me, I'm still loving SLV. It was a bit disappointing
> to see it soar to $19.50 a share only to drop $2 before the week
> was over but that is the volatility we must endure to be an investor
> in metals. Forget that silly talk about $17.50 in March. Silver will
> have made its way beyond the $20 mark long before March and with
> a little bit 'o luck may be closing in on my target selling price
> of $26. As for Tuesday, look for SLV to rebound and shoot back over
> $18. This correction was inevitable because clowns like many of the
> writers we see on the internet convince people to take menial profits
> because of some graph or historical rule rather than ride it out
> and collect real money down the road. I went in around $16 and I'm
> looking for a $10 profit per share by the spring or early summer.
> Stay true to silver and it will stay true to you.

Today in Commodities: Keeping Your Powder Dry

You may be looking at something else...we bought January ES puts for 11.75 points or $587.50 in premium yesterday for clients.

www.pfgbest.com/trader...


On Nov 19 08:10 AM User 500209 wrote:

> How did you buy jan 1000p for under 600$? Don't think they have ever
> been cheaper than 1000$

Today in Commodities: All Eyes on the Greenback

mbwealth.com/open.html


On Nov 18 02:51 PM User 405966 wrote:

> Matt,
> How to become a client?

Today in Commodities: All Eyes on the Greenback

I cannot speak for others but I do not day trade...what I do is tell clients and followers the main events of the day and update them day to day on their positions and what should be on their radar. As I'm sure you are aware day to day in this environment things can change on a dime. Additionally with this volatility we are quick to take profits and cut losses.


On Nov 17 08:50 PM picman wrote:

> Do all these writers and so called experts just day trade or do some
> of them actually stick to their opinions for more than a week at
> a time???

Today in Commodities: Strength vs. Dollar Weakness

UPDATE: As of this post the KCBOT/CBOT spread was showing a slight profit, as of settlement today clients are now slightly down on the trade. We bought KCBOT at 4 cent premium to CBOT wheat expecting a 14 cent premium to KCBOT.

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

In this example we had clients long January $6/7 call spreads in natural gas; a bullish play. They were at a profit but we did not want to leave the trade. So as opposed to exiting we advised clients to buy November $4.25 puts. The idea was if we came in Monday and natural gas prices were down we would make up the loss on the call spread with a profit on the puts. How it played out natural gas continued to move higher so we cut losses on our hedge (November puts) and exited the longs. The net result was less of a profit had we not done the puts.
Definition:
An investment made in order to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a security, by taking an offsetting position in a related security, such as an option or a short sale.


On Oct 20 05:36 PM woodennickels wrote:

> Can you explain how a hedge works again?
>
> "This time the hedge hurt instead of helped, but sometimes being
> conservative makes you less money, other times it saves you money."

Today in Commodities: Quarterly Window Dressing

1st paragraph should read...

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays. NOT

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part wheat, coffee, OJ, commodity, futures, art, being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays.

Today in Commodities: 8 Years Later, the Bull Is Alive

9/11 happened 8 years ago. There was a bull market in commodities then just getting under way and 8 years later there is still a bull market in commodities??


On Sep 14 12:18 AM Hmm?! wrote:

> Did I miss something? You did not really address the title of this
> article?

Today in Commodities: Is 9 Your Lucky Number?

154 refers to yield in corn not the price...just to clarify.


On Sep 09 04:46 PM bondsarebears wrote:

> 154? If that's the flat price they're predicting, I'll eat my business
> card. We know corn and beans are heading for a high yielding harvest
> ( bullish on the basis in the country) but 154? We'll wait until
> Friday.
> As for Wheat, I'm am Grizzly.

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

Amaranth went all in on a futures calendar spread so what they were doing was much more risky than what I'm attempting to do. In terms of a hedge fund ..that is speculation?? Who knows. I expect natural gas prices to be higher within the next 30/90 days and then potentially $6/7 1 yr from now.


On Sep 02 08:17 PM aureus wrote:

> Hi Matthew,
> I basically share your opinion on natural gas. But recently I read
> the story of the Amaranth downfall. As an experienced commodity trader,
> you surely know all about this. And don´t you have a slight fear
> that in our quite difficult environment today, there could be a couple
> of big hedgefunds out there, beeing long in natural gas, that suddenly
> could be forced to liqudate all their positions due to margin calls
> - with great downward consequences for the natural gas market. <br/>
>
> I would be very glad for a comment on this!
>
> Regards
> Aureus

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

I am qouting November because that is the month I'm trading not October. Get a hobby!


On Sep 02 10:59 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> "A double bottom at $2.86 in natural gas… it is too early to say."
>
>
>
> You know i have accused you of bottom calling on NG, now your calling
> DOUBLE BOTTOMS?
>
> BTW the price now is 2.68, so your not even close!

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

Major breakout on the charts, the trend is clearly up on top of the #1 and #2 producers in the world are having crop issues; Brazil and India. The margins are currently reasonable and one can still buy quality options with a ton of time and not pay an arm and leg. We would suggest positions out til' March 10' currently.


On Aug 23 01:40 AM BullnBear wrote:

> Matthew,
>
> I’m not asking for you to give up too much of your game I hope but
> what is your main catalyst on an upward sugar push from these levels?
> Are you just looking at supply and pricing on shortage currently
> or possibly a longer term shortage?
>
> Any thoughts on CZZ or IPSU at these levels with a potential push
> upward in raw sugar pricing?