Matthew Bradbard

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

In this example we had clients long January $6/7 call spreads in natural gas; a bullish play. They were at a profit but we did not want to leave the trade. So as opposed to exiting we advised clients to buy November $4.25 puts. The idea was if we came in Monday and natural gas prices were down we would make up the loss on the call spread with a profit on the puts. How it played out natural gas continued to move higher so we cut losses on our hedge (November puts) and exited the longs. The net result was less of a profit had we not done the puts.
Definition:
An investment made in order to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a security, by taking an offsetting position in a related security, such as an option or a short sale.


On Oct 20 05:36 PM woodennickels wrote:

> Can you explain how a hedge works again?
>
> "This time the hedge hurt instead of helped, but sometimes being
> conservative makes you less money, other times it saves you money."

Today in Commodities: Suspend Your Disbelief

www.mbwealth.com/artic...

Who's the Jackass now? Report written in Nov 08' when prices of silver were $9/ounce. Pacwoman maybe you should look at our recent posts before making any rash judgements on our trades. And yes guilty as charged I took a weeks vacation, I suggest you need some time off work as you seem to be very angry.


On Oct 13 05:54 PM picman wrote:

> Here's another idiot. We recommend buying Gold but hold off on Silver.
> What a moron. These two commodities go hand in hand almost all the
> time. Gold has soared above $1,000 and this jackass was on vacation.
> So he misses the boat but advises jumping on anyway. thats like saying
> the jets are favored by 7 points this week but ask me at the beginning
> of the fourth quarter what team to bet. I have been on board with
> Silver since late August and all along i've stated that jumping on
> and off the Silver bandwagon is foolish since its so hard to know
> highs and lows. Bottom line, as I said over a month ago, Silver breaks
> $20 an ounce before the year is over. These bandwagon jumpers are
> completely useless always giving us advice after the fact. How do
> these clowns get these jobs anyway???? Goooo SLV! right through $20
> and what Merry Christmas those of us with faith will enjoy!

Today in Commodities: Perception Isn't Reality

$4000/per 100 troy ounce futures contract...that's the difference


On Sep 10 08:01 PM Mistrofan wrote:

> This time I disagree with you on Gold and Silver. I would love to
> see gain theSilver at $12-$13 to build a position there - but I don't
> think that will happened. My estiamte is that we finally entered
> the last sustainable bull phase for precious metals, and will be
> hard to ketch-up with the gold prices up to $2200. So, what is the
> difference between an entry point at $990 vs. $950 when you know
> what is coming anymay?

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

Amaranth went all in on a futures calendar spread so what they were doing was much more risky than what I'm attempting to do. In terms of a hedge fund ..that is speculation?? Who knows. I expect natural gas prices to be higher within the next 30/90 days and then potentially $6/7 1 yr from now.


On Sep 02 08:17 PM aureus wrote:

> Hi Matthew,
> I basically share your opinion on natural gas. But recently I read
> the story of the Amaranth downfall. As an experienced commodity trader,
> you surely know all about this. And don´t you have a slight fear
> that in our quite difficult environment today, there could be a couple
> of big hedgefunds out there, beeing long in natural gas, that suddenly
> could be forced to liqudate all their positions due to margin calls
> - with great downward consequences for the natural gas market. <br/>
>
> I would be very glad for a comment on this!
>
> Regards
> Aureus

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

I am qouting November because that is the month I'm trading not October. Get a hobby!


On Sep 02 10:59 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> "A double bottom at $2.86 in natural gas… it is too early to say."
>
>
>
> You know i have accused you of bottom calling on NG, now your calling
> DOUBLE BOTTOMS?
>
> BTW the price now is 2.68, so your not even close!

Today in Commodities: Suspension of Disbelief

Rarely, if I want to be delta neautral or non-directional I may trade a futures contract against options. Depending on your time frame you caould tarde different months against one another as well. A bullish cattle trade we have clients in now: sold(3) October 84 puts and bought (1) 90 call for even money.


On Aug 20 08:18 AM User 189523 wrote:

> Matthew,
> Do you ever advise non-directional option strategies. For example
> in October Live Cattle, Long the 92 call, short the 90 call, short
> the 88 put, and long the 86 put.
> Thank you.
> MZ

Today in Commodities: Suspension of Disbelief

We hit our downside objective in oil today and would suggest using the recent pullback to start scaling into longs. What we did for clients today was expensive but we think it should pay off in the coming months. We bought (3) December $75/85 bull call spreads and at the same time bought (1) October $60 put. On a further sell -off we will liquidate the put at a profit and have the option to buy back the $85 calls that were sold. If the recent correction is all we get and prices rally from here we will cut losses on the put and look to capitalize on the call spreads.

Direct quote from Monday's post. Take your foot out of your mouthe.
On Aug 19 04:40 PM BPYHO wrote:

> You told us so about oil!!? Gimme a break! EVERYONE believes oil
> is a good LONG TERM PLAY! You have said the past few sessions that
> you were betting on oil going down to 65$ and possibly further. I
> enjoy your articles, but come on man!

Today in Commodities: Dog Days of Summer

Have never left this trade. I have been consisient, accumulating natural gas expecting a move higher by the end of September. I suggest you refrain from bashing the trade until you see the final outcome in the next 6 weeks.

On Aug 16 08:24 AM Maxe Paul wrote:

> You are really back on this "Natural Gas is a buy" caper again.<br/>
>
> You are starting to sound like Cramer, and it's quite frankly rather
> scary!

Today in Commodities: Fasten Your Seat Belt

You may want to re-read our comments...we still like natural gas. We're buying clients out til' November currently and have suggested to buy back their top leg on their October $1 call spreads. We are giving the trade til' the end of September before we claim we are right or you claim we are wrong.


On Aug 12 04:06 AM Maxe Paul wrote:

> OMG, what happened to your perma bull stance on Nat gas?
> Have you finally given up the bottom picking?

Today in Commodities: Risk Aversion Trade On

Should be "a viable " play in soy meal not " available"

Today in Commodities: The Commodity Train Is Leaving the Station

How so...maybe because the markets change everyday and as a trader you must adjust??


On Jul 22 03:54 PM dcb wrote:

> i read your comments yesterda and today and they apprear to be different.
> not a good sign.