Matthew Bradbard

Today in Commodities: Keeping Your Powder Dry

You may be looking at something else...we bought January ES puts for 11.75 points or $587.50 in premium yesterday for clients.

www.pfgbest.com/trader...


On Nov 19 08:10 AM User 500209 wrote:

> How did you buy jan 1000p for under 600$? Don't think they have ever
> been cheaper than 1000$

Today in Commodities: Strength vs. Dollar Weakness

UPDATE: As of this post the KCBOT/CBOT spread was showing a slight profit, as of settlement today clients are now slightly down on the trade. We bought KCBOT at 4 cent premium to CBOT wheat expecting a 14 cent premium to KCBOT.

Today in Commodities: Quarterly Window Dressing

1st paragraph should read...

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays. NOT

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part wheat, coffee, OJ, commodity, futures, art, being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays.

Today in Commodities: 8 Years Later, the Bull Is Alive

9/11 happened 8 years ago. There was a bull market in commodities then just getting under way and 8 years later there is still a bull market in commodities??


On Sep 14 12:18 AM Hmm?! wrote:

> Did I miss something? You did not really address the title of this
> article?

Today in Commodities: Perception Isn't Reality

$4000/per 100 troy ounce futures contract...that's the difference


On Sep 10 08:01 PM Mistrofan wrote:

> This time I disagree with you on Gold and Silver. I would love to
> see gain theSilver at $12-$13 to build a position there - but I don't
> think that will happened. My estiamte is that we finally entered
> the last sustainable bull phase for precious metals, and will be
> hard to ketch-up with the gold prices up to $2200. So, what is the
> difference between an entry point at $990 vs. $950 when you know
> what is coming anymay?

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

Amaranth went all in on a futures calendar spread so what they were doing was much more risky than what I'm attempting to do. In terms of a hedge fund ..that is speculation?? Who knows. I expect natural gas prices to be higher within the next 30/90 days and then potentially $6/7 1 yr from now.


On Sep 02 08:17 PM aureus wrote:

> Hi Matthew,
> I basically share your opinion on natural gas. But recently I read
> the story of the Amaranth downfall. As an experienced commodity trader,
> you surely know all about this. And don´t you have a slight fear
> that in our quite difficult environment today, there could be a couple
> of big hedgefunds out there, beeing long in natural gas, that suddenly
> could be forced to liqudate all their positions due to margin calls
> - with great downward consequences for the natural gas market. <br/>
>
> I would be very glad for a comment on this!
>
> Regards
> Aureus

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

I am qouting November because that is the month I'm trading not October. Get a hobby!


On Sep 02 10:59 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> "A double bottom at $2.86 in natural gas… it is too early to say."
>
>
>
> You know i have accused you of bottom calling on NG, now your calling
> DOUBLE BOTTOMS?
>
> BTW the price now is 2.68, so your not even close!

Today in Commodities: Fall Is Coming

It may be beneficial to look at some of the other trades outside of NG where we are actually making money for clients. As a skeptic you may want to point out all the bad trades but REAL traders are not right every time. Need I remind you again on the natural gas I said I expect a move could take until the end of September...look at your calendar.


On Aug 24 09:22 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> Still bottom picking on the NG?
>
> Joke of the day, why do they call a broker a broker?,
>
> because thats what you will be after following their advice!

Today in Commodities: Fall Is Coming

We would suggest being long sugar via options or futures with downside put protection. We have clients positioned in March 10' contracts.


On Aug 24 04:33 PM DB2329 wrote:

> I have not seen you make a comment on sugar recently. It looks like
> sugar has hit a near-term double top. Would your recomend buying
> on dips or outright shorting suger?

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

Major breakout on the charts, the trend is clearly up on top of the #1 and #2 producers in the world are having crop issues; Brazil and India. The margins are currently reasonable and one can still buy quality options with a ton of time and not pay an arm and leg. We would suggest positions out til' March 10' currently.


On Aug 23 01:40 AM BullnBear wrote:

> Matthew,
>
> I’m not asking for you to give up too much of your game I hope but
> what is your main catalyst on an upward sugar push from these levels?
> Are you just looking at supply and pricing on shortage currently
> or possibly a longer term shortage?
>
> Any thoughts on CZZ or IPSU at these levels with a potential push
> upward in raw sugar pricing?

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

I agree, at the moment we have some clients long both crude and natural gas. We are looking for an exit in crude very soon. I would not suggest getting short out right but I too notice how far this ratio is out of whack. Depending on your account size and risk tolerances you could trade futures, mini-futures or options. Based on the fact that you would be bucking the trend on both positions we would most likely suggest options with 2/4 months. Contact us for pricing or so we can discuss the risk:reward. Logically this spread should come in over ther next few months. By putting on both positions it would be non-directional but rather just a bet on the ratio coming in.


On Aug 23 03:43 PM Bill Herbert wrote:

> Matthew, or anyone -
>
> I've been holding off valiantly on the long nat gas / short crude
> oil trade for the past two months. With the ratio now around 26.3
> to 1 as of the close on Friday 8/21, I can't stay away from it any
> longer.
>
> I know we have an enormous NG glut and I also know that demand is
> likely to remain stagnant for at least the next few months, as we
> get into milder weather and slack industrial usage. It could get
> ugly, but I will be surprised if the Crude-to-NG ratio can go beyond
> 30-to-1.
>
> I'm wondering if anybody has some insights as to how to most effectively
> position the account in terms of moderate risk, a hedged position,
> and reasonable use of leverage. I want to be there when the spread
> comes in, and I would love to triple my invested money in a few months
> from riding the position, and the move may occur quite suddenly and
> violently depending on world events and/or a big hurricane.
>
> Any constructive thoughts would be appreciated,
>
> thx

Today in Commodities: Ignore the Noise

Yes, technicals do support a move higher but when August goes off the board next week and October becomes the front month the futures should only be $1/2 over cash not as you pointed out $5/7. That being said for futures traders we suggest being long December and short October. For option traders we are selling out of the money puts in October and buying at the money or just out of the money calls. Longer term we think into the fall we may start a 2 year bull market in cattle. What are your thoughts?


On Aug 20 04:32 PM Adam-i wrote:

> Matthew,
>
> Is your live cattle view solely based on technicals? The cash market
> is awfully low compared to the October contract ($5-7 lower).

Today in Commodities: Fasten Your Seat Belt

You may want to re-read our comments...we still like natural gas. We're buying clients out til' November currently and have suggested to buy back their top leg on their October $1 call spreads. We are giving the trade til' the end of September before we claim we are right or you claim we are wrong.


On Aug 12 04:06 AM Maxe Paul wrote:

> OMG, what happened to your perma bull stance on Nat gas?
> Have you finally given up the bottom picking?

Today in Commodities: Risk Aversion Trade On

Should be "a viable " play in soy meal not " available"

Today in Commodities: Dollar Doom?

mbwealth.com/weeklycom...
Excerpt from commentary:
September 30-yr bonds gained 1’27 points last week trading to a 7 week high. Volatility has picked with wider trading ranges last week which generally happens at markets tops or bottoms. We would advise taking off all longs and expect a shift lower from here. Resistance comes in at 121’16 with support at 119’10. September 10-yr notes also gained last week, picking up 1’26.5 points. Like bonds, we expect yields to rise and prices to retreat. Resistance comes in at 119’10 with support at 117’10. Get short March 10’ Euro-dollars via futures or options. We expect last week’s high to serve as an interim top. You can buy an at-the-money put with over 8 months time currently for $600.



On Jul 15 10:11 PM Andrew Amrhein wrote:

> Please provide a link to the Weekly Commentary about Treasuries,
> referred to above. Thanks.