Matthew Bradbard

Today in Commodities: A Pause Before the Next Surge

Correct a trade over $17.60 expect $19 a trade below $16.90 expect $16.15. Only my opinion!


On Dec 15 10:31 AM jimbo's gravy train wrote:

> " A settlement back over $17.60 should mean $19 in the immediate
> future."
>
> Hey, a firm prediction... I like that. So if I am understanding this
> correctly, you are saying if silver reaches 17.60, you expect the
> climb to continue through the $19 mark. Is that correct? It would
> be nice to see silver back near $20 where it belongs.

Today in Commodities: A Pause Before the Next Surge

Yesterday tyh10 lost 1 ticks, ush10 gained 12 ticks...if my math is correct that is a gain of 13 ticks. Clients are long ush10/short tyh10. I apologize if I was not clear on their position. We are expecting ush10 to trade at a premium to tyh10. Put in gtc profit today at 1'26 premium to ush10.


On Dec 15 08:26 AM Prince Saleh wrote:

> the march NOB spread didn't gain, it went 7 weak yesterday! MAR 10yr
> made new lows!

Today in Commodities: As the Greenback Turns

We should see some good resistance in the March contract between $17/17.40.

Should be support NOT resistance..my mistake

Today in Commodities: Keeping Your Powder Dry

You may be looking at something else...we bought January ES puts for 11.75 points or $587.50 in premium yesterday for clients.

www.pfgbest.com/trader...


On Nov 19 08:10 AM User 500209 wrote:

> How did you buy jan 1000p for under 600$? Don't think they have ever
> been cheaper than 1000$

Today in Commodities: Dollar Sets the Tone

In this example we had clients long January $6/7 call spreads in natural gas; a bullish play. They were at a profit but we did not want to leave the trade. So as opposed to exiting we advised clients to buy November $4.25 puts. The idea was if we came in Monday and natural gas prices were down we would make up the loss on the call spread with a profit on the puts. How it played out natural gas continued to move higher so we cut losses on our hedge (November puts) and exited the longs. The net result was less of a profit had we not done the puts.
Definition:
An investment made in order to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a security, by taking an offsetting position in a related security, such as an option or a short sale.


On Oct 20 05:36 PM woodennickels wrote:

> Can you explain how a hedge works again?
>
> "This time the hedge hurt instead of helped, but sometimes being
> conservative makes you less money, other times it saves you money."

Today in Commodities: Suspend Your Disbelief

www.mbwealth.com/artic...

Who's the Jackass now? Report written in Nov 08' when prices of silver were $9/ounce. Pacwoman maybe you should look at our recent posts before making any rash judgements on our trades. And yes guilty as charged I took a weeks vacation, I suggest you need some time off work as you seem to be very angry.


On Oct 13 05:54 PM picman wrote:

> Here's another idiot. We recommend buying Gold but hold off on Silver.
> What a moron. These two commodities go hand in hand almost all the
> time. Gold has soared above $1,000 and this jackass was on vacation.
> So he misses the boat but advises jumping on anyway. thats like saying
> the jets are favored by 7 points this week but ask me at the beginning
> of the fourth quarter what team to bet. I have been on board with
> Silver since late August and all along i've stated that jumping on
> and off the Silver bandwagon is foolish since its so hard to know
> highs and lows. Bottom line, as I said over a month ago, Silver breaks
> $20 an ounce before the year is over. These bandwagon jumpers are
> completely useless always giving us advice after the fact. How do
> these clowns get these jobs anyway???? Goooo SLV! right through $20
> and what Merry Christmas those of us with faith will enjoy!

Today in Commodities: Quarterly Window Dressing

1st paragraph should read...

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays. NOT

2009 is 3/4 over -- how is your performance? You’ve had to pick your points in commodities, but for the most part wheat, coffee, OJ, commodity, futures, art, being long currencies against the US dollar and long metals have been the plays.

Today in Commodities: 8 Years Later, the Bull Is Alive

9/11 happened 8 years ago. There was a bull market in commodities then just getting under way and 8 years later there is still a bull market in commodities??


On Sep 14 12:18 AM Hmm?! wrote:

> Did I miss something? You did not really address the title of this
> article?

Today in Commodities: Perception Isn't Reality

$4000/per 100 troy ounce futures contract...that's the difference


On Sep 10 08:01 PM Mistrofan wrote:

> This time I disagree with you on Gold and Silver. I would love to
> see gain theSilver at $12-$13 to build a position there - but I don't
> think that will happened. My estiamte is that we finally entered
> the last sustainable bull phase for precious metals, and will be
> hard to ketch-up with the gold prices up to $2200. So, what is the
> difference between an entry point at $990 vs. $950 when you know
> what is coming anymay?

Today in Commodities: Is 9 Your Lucky Number?

154 refers to yield in corn not the price...just to clarify.


On Sep 09 04:46 PM bondsarebears wrote:

> 154? If that's the flat price they're predicting, I'll eat my business
> card. We know corn and beans are heading for a high yielding harvest
> ( bullish on the basis in the country) but 154? We'll wait until
> Friday.
> As for Wheat, I'm am Grizzly.

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

Amaranth went all in on a futures calendar spread so what they were doing was much more risky than what I'm attempting to do. In terms of a hedge fund ..that is speculation?? Who knows. I expect natural gas prices to be higher within the next 30/90 days and then potentially $6/7 1 yr from now.


On Sep 02 08:17 PM aureus wrote:

> Hi Matthew,
> I basically share your opinion on natural gas. But recently I read
> the story of the Amaranth downfall. As an experienced commodity trader,
> you surely know all about this. And don´t you have a slight fear
> that in our quite difficult environment today, there could be a couple
> of big hedgefunds out there, beeing long in natural gas, that suddenly
> could be forced to liqudate all their positions due to margin calls
> - with great downward consequences for the natural gas market. <br/>
>
> I would be very glad for a comment on this!
>
> Regards
> Aureus

Today in Commodities: Whole Lotta Nuthin'

I am qouting November because that is the month I'm trading not October. Get a hobby!


On Sep 02 10:59 PM Maxe Paul wrote:

> "A double bottom at $2.86 in natural gas… it is too early to say."
>
>
>
> You know i have accused you of bottom calling on NG, now your calling
> DOUBLE BOTTOMS?
>
> BTW the price now is 2.68, so your not even close!

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

Major breakout on the charts, the trend is clearly up on top of the #1 and #2 producers in the world are having crop issues; Brazil and India. The margins are currently reasonable and one can still buy quality options with a ton of time and not pay an arm and leg. We would suggest positions out til' March 10' currently.


On Aug 23 01:40 AM BullnBear wrote:

> Matthew,
>
> I’m not asking for you to give up too much of your game I hope but
> what is your main catalyst on an upward sugar push from these levels?
> Are you just looking at supply and pricing on shortage currently
> or possibly a longer term shortage?
>
> Any thoughts on CZZ or IPSU at these levels with a potential push
> upward in raw sugar pricing?

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

I agree, at the moment we have some clients long both crude and natural gas. We are looking for an exit in crude very soon. I would not suggest getting short out right but I too notice how far this ratio is out of whack. Depending on your account size and risk tolerances you could trade futures, mini-futures or options. Based on the fact that you would be bucking the trend on both positions we would most likely suggest options with 2/4 months. Contact us for pricing or so we can discuss the risk:reward. Logically this spread should come in over ther next few months. By putting on both positions it would be non-directional but rather just a bet on the ratio coming in.


On Aug 23 03:43 PM Bill Herbert wrote:

> Matthew, or anyone -
>
> I've been holding off valiantly on the long nat gas / short crude
> oil trade for the past two months. With the ratio now around 26.3
> to 1 as of the close on Friday 8/21, I can't stay away from it any
> longer.
>
> I know we have an enormous NG glut and I also know that demand is
> likely to remain stagnant for at least the next few months, as we
> get into milder weather and slack industrial usage. It could get
> ugly, but I will be surprised if the Crude-to-NG ratio can go beyond
> 30-to-1.
>
> I'm wondering if anybody has some insights as to how to most effectively
> position the account in terms of moderate risk, a hedged position,
> and reasonable use of leverage. I want to be there when the spread
> comes in, and I would love to triple my invested money in a few months
> from riding the position, and the move may occur quite suddenly and
> violently depending on world events and/or a big hurricane.
>
> Any constructive thoughts would be appreciated,
>
> thx

Today in Commodities: Ignore the Noise

Yes, technicals do support a move higher but when August goes off the board next week and October becomes the front month the futures should only be $1/2 over cash not as you pointed out $5/7. That being said for futures traders we suggest being long December and short October. For option traders we are selling out of the money puts in October and buying at the money or just out of the money calls. Longer term we think into the fall we may start a 2 year bull market in cattle. What are your thoughts?


On Aug 20 04:32 PM Adam-i wrote:

> Matthew,
>
> Is your live cattle view solely based on technicals? The cash market
> is awfully low compared to the October contract ($5-7 lower).