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Matthew Cowie's  Instablog

Matthew Cowie
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Financial Analyst for Mutual Fund Investor Guide; currently living in Beijing, China. Previously worked as a financial analyst for for Fidelity Independent Adviser Dion Money Management. Articles written have appeared on, Yahoo Finance, and Seeking Alpha.
My blog:
Investing in Chinese Stocks
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  • Maotai Bubble Collapses

    In March 2012 I wrote: Chinese Maotai bubble bursts!, which discussed the government crackdown on officials blowing public money on extravagant banquets, with much of the cash flowing into luxury goods such as the high priced Maotai baijiu.

    I was early with my call: Maotai shares ran from 200 up to 260 yuan before the top was reached, but with shares collapsing to 150 yuan yesterday, it's clear that the call was the right one. The reason for the latest drop on Monday, a 10% limit down plunge: Baijiu-Maker Kweichow Moutai Sobers Up

    Kweichow Moutai Co.'s shares plunged by the 10% daily limit in Shanghai on Monday morning, after the company reported its slowest half-year gain since 2001. The maker of moutai, a high-end baijiu, or white liquor, said Friday its first-half net profit rose 3.6%.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: China
    Sep 03 2:53 AM | Link | Comment!
  • China Will Nationalize U.S. Dollar Deposits To Forestall A Collapse In The Yuan
    Liu Jun Luo: Gold going to $500; Chinese yuan will collapse; China will nationalize dollar deposits
    Tags: China
    Jun 27 10:47 PM | Link | Comment!
  • FX Loan To Deposit Ratio Steady, M2 Up Y-O-Y

    There was no big jump in the loan-to-deposit ratio. However, let's see if that's not because China isn't really slowing down. If the hot money flowed in as usual, we should have seen a jump in these ratios, and it looks as though it could be rolling over. If that's the case, yuan weakness is on the way.

    (click to enlarge)

    And here's a look at M1, M2 and the Shanghai Composite through the end of April.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: CYB, renminbi
    May 23 8:25 AM | Link | Comment!
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