Matthew D. McCall

How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall

When it comes to fundamentals and support for them, the bottomline is earnings. This is why my firm, Penn Financial Group, focuses on individual stocks (across all sectors) that have been regularly increasing their top line (revenue) even as the global economic situation was struggling. After a major recession there will be winners and losers; the ultimate goal is to buy the stocks that will benefit from the pickup in growth following the recession. Just as every recession in the past has created new winners, this time will be no different.


On Oct 16 04:30 PM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> I'm with Mayascribe. If he's bullish why does he focus on commodities
> that already ran up. Commodities are great for the start of a bull
> (which already happened only) or if there is a bubble with hyperinflation
> which is not bullish at all. Also sectoral stock makes much more
> sense as does raw commodity contracts if you're a pro which he infers
> he is.
>
> Also as Mayascribe infers, there is a distinct lack of fundamental
> economic proof backing his bullish views. One should never overlook
> economics when investing, especially if you want to call a bull.
> To fail to do so makes your bull argument, well pun intended, pure
> bull.

How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall

You make 2 great points.

1) My firm, Penn Financial Group, invests in many individual stocks, but for the sake of the article the focus was on ETFs. I feel there is a need for exposure to both the futures (through ETFs) and the related commodity companies.

2) Yes debt in the US is an issue going forward, especially if we cannot stop printing money. This leads to my belief of hyperinflation in the future thus pushing commodity prices much higher.


On Oct 16 03:51 PM Mayascribe wrote:

> Two things about this interview gave me the heebeegeebees.
>
> i) If this guy is so smart, why is he messing around with ETF's.
> Why not pick best of breed in each sector and not a basket of stocks
> of which some are underperformers. I do like the three lithium plays
> he did mention. Yet, I'll take my chances with Jaguar Mining (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> or Northern Dynasty (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), or Nova
> Gold (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) going up in multiples much
> more than the Barrick's and Kinross's and the metals ETF's of the
> investing world. As for lithium, I'm betting that American Lithium
> Minerals (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) is a multibagger more
> so than (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
> ii) Maybe he's right about a 10 year bull market, I hope so. But
> the myriad of debts this country is piling up will sooner or later
> have to be addressed. These millions, billions, trillions of debt
> make me highly wary of another meltdown. Possibly, we can escape
> future financial eclipse through the huge number of people worldwide
> who now can, or soon will be able to buy things that their parents
> never dreamed of, or were compltely unaware ever before existed.

Back-to-School Retail Winners

BKE was a consideration, but technically the stock has broken down the last few months as expectations became very high for the company. If the stock can hold $25 I may consider it a buy.


On Aug 26 10:54 AM Ted Hurlbut wrote:

> I agree with much of this, although I'm not as confident in the market
> position of TGT at the moment. ARO, BBY and URBN are all spot on,
> while TRLG is a reasonable counter-intuitive call. The one that is
> missing, in my judgment, is The Buckle (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> I would anticipate continued good top-line results from them. Otherwise,
> it looks to be a challenging back half for much of retail.

Three Overlooked High-Yield ETFs

Agreed - a pullback is due and would look to use any such pullback as a buying opportunity.


On Aug 16 02:21 AM Jake2 wrote:

>
> Another writer here suggests tht PFF is overbought and thus ripe
> for a pullback.

Three Overlooked High-Yield ETFs

Both very similar recommendations (PGF and PGX). The one difference is that PGF only concentrates on financial preferreds.


On Aug 04 11:59 AM RAPROX wrote:

> To this I would recommend PGF and PGX as of the same character. Both
> have done very well since March. I hold both.

Two Unique Approaches to Real Estate Investing

All three comments are informative - thanks.
With CMO you are correct that it concentrates on residential mortgages, but a major blowup in the commercial side would likely hurt the entire RE market. I believe the potential blowup is overdone and CMO should be able to sidestep any issues.
TAO is an aggressive play, but I do not feel the China RE or stock market is at bubble levels. They are both working their way back from major pullbacks.

9 New High Candidates

Thanks for comment, just a quick thought.

I agree with ADM and AUY. Also own SLV.

I do agree oil is moving higher, but would look at move leveraged plays such as PBR (I also own).



On May 20 03:40 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> My picks (seekingalpha.com/symbo...):
>
> KO (nice call with falling dollar -- glad I got in a week ago!)<br/>ADM
> (grains = recession proof; we are not out of the woods yet, but must
> always eat)
> BP (oil on the way back up, nice dividend!!)
> AUY (inflation play)
> SLV (inflation play)

9 New High Candidates

Good points. CMO deals mainly with residential ARM, government-backed mortgages. Also dividend was raised last quarter to $0.56/share from $0.36 in fourth quarter and $0.55 in third quarter of 2008.


On May 20 07:48 AM doubleguns wrote:

> CMO with a $1.98 earnings cant support the dividend. Don't count
> on that dividend to hold up.
>
> If they are in commercial mortgages don't count on the stock price
> to hold up over the coming expected correction in this market either.

Why You Need to Be Careful With Leveraged ETFs

Unfortunately your comment is incorrect. Yes, it can be explained by simple mathematics, however it has to do with the daily rebalancing of the leveraged ETFs. If you bought twice as much in a short ETF versus a leveraged short ETF the returns will be skewed over time. The derivative comment is also wrong, but thanks for the comment.

Why You Need to Be Careful With Leveraged ETFs

You can find a complete list of the dividends and capital gains distributed by ProShares on their website, proshares.com.


On Dec 24 07:30 AM Gene Jaquet wrote:

> Thank you for these observations. I don't know if this is coincidental,
> but the article was posted a day after SDS opened at $75.40 having
> closed the afternoon before at $87.44 (so down 13.8%) whereas the
> S&amp;P 500 opened up only 1.9% higher. Is this an anomaly linked
> to triple-witching? Do you (or anyone else) have an explanation?

Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best?

Ashley - DBC is a solid broad-based ETF that has over 50% in energy (oil and heating oil). The exposure to ags is only 25% and is why it was not on the list.
Matt

Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best?

Good question, the reason I omitted GCC is because all 6 ETFs above concentrate strictly on agriculture. Also, if you want a pureplay livestock ETF there is the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Livestock ETN (COW) that invests 62% in cattle and 38% in hogs.

To comment on a previous question, referring to RJA as an ETF was merely a typo.