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Matthew Dow

 
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  • Update: Qualstar Earnings
    Mon, Oct. 13 QBAK Comment!

    Summary

    • Qualstar continues to show slow and steady signs of improving its business.
    • Although yearly revenues were down, new big orders for September signal a strong end to 2014.
    • Insiders continue to buy as the stock dips, and they loaded up again in October.
  • Update: DragonWave Reports Another Good Quarter, And The Stock Continues To Be Undervalued
    Fri, Oct. 10 DRWI 10 Comments

    Summary

    • This week DragonWave reported Q2 results, which showed revenue growth of 32% over the previous quarter.
    • The company continues the slow march towards operating cash flow breakeven, losing only about $4m in the quarter.
    • Signs remain clear that capex spending from Telecoms will continue to be strong in Q3 and Q4, which should propel full-year revenues more than 60% higher than last year.
  • Update: Bazaarvoice Earnings
    Sun, Sep. 7 BV Comment!

    Summary

    • Bazaarvoice has announced a good start to FY2015 with revenues growing 14% over a year-ago levels.
    • As I predicted in my recent analysis in June, the company seems to have passed its revenue bottom and should continue to see improving results in the coming quarters.
    • As the company gains momentum and gets further removed from its past anti-trust issues, look for the stock to factor up in valuation with upside close to 50%.
  • SMTP Earnings And 2 Big Acquisitions
    Sun, Aug. 17 SMTP 8 Comments

    Summary

    • On August 14th, SMTP simultaneously announced positive Q2 2014 results and 2 acquisitions which will have a big impact on the company in the coming year.
    • I predicted in my recent in-depth article on the company that they would make some big acquisitions in 2014, and these add-ons will double revenues almost overnight.
    • With an adjusted EV/Rev multiple now under 2.5x, SMTP is significantly undervalued and could easily double in the next 12 months.
  • Ubiquiti Networks Earnings
    Fri, Aug. 8 UBNT 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Ubiquiti Networks has shined again with another strong quarterly report.
    • The company has just released new products and has hinted at several more which should fuel the next leg of growth going into 2015.
    • Ubiquiti remains extremely profitable, well managed, and attractively priced with a forward P/E under 15.
  • Update: RealNetworks Earnings
    Sun, Aug. 3 RNWK 3 Comments

    Summary

    • RealNetworks reported earnings last week, and it was for all intents and purposes another disappointing quarter.
    • Despite some bright news about RealPlayer Cloud, the company's turnaround is definitely slower than anticipated and cash burn is increasing.
    • At this point the company would be better served to sell off most assets and focus all resources on RealPlayer Cloud.
  • Update: Support.com Earnings
    Fri, Aug. 1 SPRT 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Support.com had a good earnings report showing the business is stabilizing.
    • The company remains poised to be a leader in the Internet of Things support market.
    • The report has confirmed my opinion that the stock has significant upside potential, with minimal near-term downside risk.
  • Update: DragonWave Still Poised For Big Upside, Despite Recent Secondary Offering
    Wed, Jul. 30 DRWI 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Last week DragonWave announced an equity offering to raise more than $20m, causing the shares to drop about 15% in a day.
    • Although this has come a bit earlier than I expected, The shares are at the same level they were in June and the company will now be better capitalized.
    • Major catalysts remain intact for the coming year, and the stock has big upside potential due to major increases around the world in 4G/LTE CapEx spending.
  • SMTP: A Cash Generating Company With Strong Growth Ahead
       • Wed, Jul. 30 SMTP 5 Comments

    Summary

    • SMTP is a highly profitable micro cap with strong growth prospects and a generous dividend.
    • A recent shift in management strategy and an equity offering has given the company a pile of cash to accelerate growth.
    • With a strong brand name, low customer concentration and increasing liquidity, look for the stock to outperform the market.
  • Update: Liquidity Services DoD Contract Cessation Causes Short-Term Sell-Off, But Long-Term Value Remains
    Tue, Jul. 15 LQDT 10 Comments

    Summary

    • On July 10th Liquidity Services announced that the majority of its DLA Rolling Surplus Contract was being halted pending the assessment of regulatory rules.
    • Although this causes a short-term hit on earnings, in my opinion the shares still offer good long-term value.
    • Admittedly I didn't see this one coming, But believers in the long-term value and growth of the business should use the opportunity to accumulate more shares.
  • Bazaarvoice: With Legal Troubles Behind It, Look For This Stock To Outperform In 2014
       • Sat, Jun. 28 BV 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Bazaarvoice has just agreed to divest PowerReviews as part of its DOJ anti-trust agreement. This should lift a major overhang on the company.
    • The Social CRM market continues to show long-term promise, and Bazaarvoice remains a leader with its growing customer base.
    • Revenue growth is at an inflection point and is beginning to accelerate upwards again into double digits. Stock set to appreciate by 50% or more.
  • DragonWave: After Years Of Disappointment, Big Upside Potential In 2014
       • Fri, Jun. 27 DRWI 62 Comments

    Summary

    • After years of heavy operating losses, DragonWave is seeing greater than 50% revenue growth with a cyclical upswing in 4G/LTE network spending.
    • Besides a general upswing in the market, a new contract with telecom Reliance Jio coupled with improvements in the Nokia relationship should lift the stock further in 2014.
    • With the stock down more than 90% the last 4 years and all expectations deflated, good execution in the coming months will likely make for a quick multi-bagger.
  • Support.com: An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential
       • Sat, Jun. 21 SPRT 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Support.com could see more than 50% upside near-term as the market realizes it overreacted to recent news.
    • The "Internet of Things" should drive growth in the double digits over the coming few years.
    • The company has a pristine balance sheet and is trading at a price/cash of less than 2.
    • Insiders are converting options and nobody is selling.
  • Liquidity Services: Despite Recent Issues, Conservative Accounting And A Robust Business Model Point To Undervaluation
       • Thu, Jun. 19 LQDT 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Conservative accounting policies at Liquidity Services for software development mean reported earnings could be adjusted upwards by 20-30%.
    • Despite Near Term Disappointment with the DoD Contract, the company still possesses valuable network effects and continues to grow its buyer and seller bases.
    • The company has a strong cash position with no debt.
    • Reasonable cash flow assumptions and EBITDA multiples indicate the shares could have 50% or more upside potential.
  • Qualstar: Executing Well And Still Undervalued
       • Thu, Jun. 19 QBAK 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Qualstar continues to be an attractive micro cap value stock as new management is executing well on cost cutting initiatives.
    • Insiders believe in the undervaluation thesis, as they are buying stock repeatedly in the past 6 months including several times in May and June 2014.
    • With tape storage inventory back in house and cost restructuring largely complete, look for improving quarterly results in Q2 and Q3.
    • Other positives including a new distribution agreement for N2Power supply, new executive management, and positive long term prospects for the automated tape storage industry.
  • Internet Patent Corporation: No Downside Risk, Let The Upside Take Care Of Itself
       • Tue, Jan. 7 PTNT 4 Comments
  • HMG Courtland Properties: A Hidden Asset Play With 35% Upside
       • Dec. 28, 2013 HMG 13 Comments
  • Dice Holdings: A Stock With Upward Potential Heading Into 2014
       • Dec. 27, 2013 DHX 8 Comments
  • EarthLink: Could Be Some Value, But For Now The Company Deserves To Be Cheap
       • Dec. 13, 2013 ELNK 5 Comments
  • Liquidity Services: Looks To Be A Good Value Play For 2014
       • Dec. 12, 2013 LQDT 8 Comments
  • Axion International: Upward Momentum Has Just Begun With A Game-Changing Contract
       • Dec. 11, 2013 AXIH 25 Comments
  • OpenText: Strong Catalyst With Red Oxygen, Another 50% Upside Expected In 2014
       • Dec. 8, 2013 OTEX 5 Comments
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Another Big Year Ahead, Get In Now On The Short Term Sell-Off
       • Dec. 7, 2013 UBNT 21 Comments
  • Cementos Pacasmayo: Solid Long-Term Prospects At An Attractive Price
       • Dec. 5, 2013 CPAC 2 Comments
  • Sypris Solutions: Weakening End Markets Signal More Downside Can Be Expected
       • Nov. 4, 2013 SYPR 3 Comments
  • Qualstar: A Beaten Down Company With 50% Upside Potential
       • Oct. 27, 2013 QBAK 6 Comments
  • Cobra Electronics: Significantly Undervalued With 50% Upside Potential
       • Oct. 14, 2013 COBR 10 Comments
  • RealNetworks: The Catalyst Has Arrived With RealPlayer Cloud
       • Sep. 30, 2013 RNWK 7 Comments
  • Indofood: A Great Consumer Franchise At A Bargain Price
       • Sep. 29, 2013 PIFMY 11 Comments
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Lock-up Expires, Providing A Short-Term Alpha Opportunity
       • Sep. 5, 2013 UBNT 17 Comments
  • UFP Technologies: A Well Run Packaging Company With 50% Upside
       • Sep. 4, 2013 UFPT 1 Comment
  • Aruba Networks: Squeezed By The Competition, This One Is Not Worth The Risk
       • Aug. 25, 2013 ARUN 9 Comments