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Matthew Dow

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  • Quartet Merger Rights: 40% Upside For A Short-Term Event Driven Investment [View article]
    Ive been following this one with interest. Even after vote, the rights still trade down 15% or so. Thoughts as to why?
    Sep 30 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Reader-Nominated Outstanding Performance Awards - Alexander J. Poulos And Henry Cheung [View article]
    Wow, I'm honored to see I was nominated again for an outstanding performance award!! Thanks to whoever has nominated me for EMC. A great company that definitely was too good too miss when I wrote that article.
    Congrats to this weeks winners, I think this program continues to be an excellent way to highlight great analysis from a variety of contributors, and not just the articles which were originally Pro Top Ideas.

    Sep 29 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti -8.8%; Wunderlich cuts estimates on Russian concerns [View news story]
    I agree Philip, that it doesn't seem warranted, and they were quite clear in the last call on the impact of these countries. I also thought the announcement from Wunderlich was a bit strange, as they maintained their buy rating and price target well over $50.... for me, a bit of a mixed message! I've been selling a few out of the money puts down in the 30s, if it drops anymore i'll also be adding here.
    Sep 23 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy insider sales amid near-record corporate buybacks [View news story]
    Yup.... these days im trying to pay attention to stocks with high insider buying and already near 52 week lows to avoid some of this. Although so far some of my most recent picks, all small cap techs, are getting hit hard the past few weeks!
    Sep 23 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cobra Electronics: Significantly Undervalued With 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    yes definitely, I can't complain!! Thanks Mike.
    Aug 28 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cobra Electronics: Significantly Undervalued With 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    Thanks Eli, much appreciated!! Full disclosure that unfortunately for my own wealth, I sold out my holding after about a 50% rise some months ago. So I didn't get the full benefit of this rise. :(
    Aug 28 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Outstanding Performance Award Winners: Matthew Dow And Inefficient Market [View article]
    Thanks Mike! Must be your turn soon :)
    Aug 26 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Outstanding Performance Award Winners: Matthew Dow And Inefficient Market [View article]
    I agree Inefficient Market - certainly does go above and beyond, and I felt very honored to receive this award. Thanks again SA!
    Aug 26 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Week's Outstanding Performance Award Winners: Matthew Dow And Inefficient Market [View article]
    Thanks Family Investor! I was humbled to receive the award, and appreciate your comment
    Aug 25 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Significant Upside Potential In 2013 [View article]
    I've been following the journey of Ubiquiti Networks closely for about 20 months now ever since I recommended the shares at under $12 in January 2013 in this article.

    Since the time of publishing this article, I have written several in-depth bullish follow-up articles on the company, most recently in December. With the shares having risen more than 250% in less than 2 years, one might think it logical to now take profits - however the company continues to be my largest holding. In the coming weeks I will publish another in-depth analysis on what to expect from the company going into 2015.
    For now though I will give a few key points on why the company remains a buy at these levels:

    Robert Pera is one of the brightest tech CEOs out there and has firmly kept his money where his mouth is, in terms of the grand vision he has for Ubiquiti. At only 36 years of age, he has plenty of years left, and shows no signs of selling out or diminishing his influence on the company. His 65% stake in the company is worth over $2B, and he has only sold about 1% of his holdings in the past 2 years. This despite the stock more than tripling in price. That speaks volumes to his dedication and belief of where the company is headed.

    In the past few months Ubiquiti has had several product launches, and is seeing very good uptake of the new AirFiber 5 and AirMax AC lines

    The enterprise UniFi platform is being expanded to a broader software defined networking platform. This will encompass video surveillance as well as the new VoIP phones and enterprise switching products. This should prove significant as the products ramp, since the telephony and switching addressable markets are very large and could bring in significantly more revenue than the UniFi Coordinated AP product. For example the enterprise switching market was as big as $6B per quarter in 2013 according to IDC.

    Finally the company remains attractively valued, with a forward P/E under 15 and a PEG under 0.60 when looking out a few years. Looking at the company's growing cash pile of $347m and excellent balance sheet, and there is ample flexibility and options to fuel further growth and shareholder friendly practices. For example earlier this year when the stock price dipped back into the mid $30s, and the company promptly bought back stock.
    Aug 23 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    Another way to play this could be to hedge the long position. If you buy a Jan put option at $21, this will cost you roughly ~2.5% of your investment, and caps your downside risk at another 2,5 or so, so the most you can lose is about -5%. Then you have the "80% chance" of 5.3% upside, but because of the hedge you would net something like +2.5% in a few months time if the deal goes through.

    Now before you say this is peanuts, it could be an interesting way to park some "conservative" short term money you normally would have in cash or bonds, which are currently making 1% or less annually, and longer term bonds have a lot of interest rate risk at the moment. For a little bit of risk spread across a couple of arbitrage opportunities you would most likely do much better than keeping the money in straight cash.
    Aug 21 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMTP Earnings And 2 Big Acquisitions [View article]
    thanks for the good summary - I fully agree, and am excited about these acquisitions. I'm impressed on the direction I see management going, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the stock reacts over the coming months.
    Aug 17 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks Earnings [View article]
    Yes it definitely is a unique business model - thanks for the comment. It has always been cheap compared to some peers because of this model - it has been taking Wall Street a while to get it. This has improved though, as they have doubled their analyst coverage in the last 1,5 years and are slowly but surely become more known. I think the reason the market has always been reluctant to give it much higher valuations is that there is some inherent skepticism that their lean model is not scalable - i.e. they start to hit a wall on growth when they do not have the aggressive salesman knocking at the doors of all enterprises. This however I think is old fashioned thinking, as the world of IT knowledge is changing rapidly. Due to the explosion of the internet and how information is shared so rapidly (e.g. twitter), it's more important to focus on getting out high quality products for a low price that the consumers will want, and the marketing and sales can be driven much more effectively by word of mouth. The UBNT community forum is amazingly active. When i first started following the company they often had about 500 concurrent users browsing the forum. Now today every time I look its not uncommon for this to be 2000. So clearly the word is getting out and the customer base is rapidly growing. As I will cover more in an in depth follow up, I'm excited about their new products as well, as the addressable market sizes in terms of $$ are very large.
    Aug 9 12:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for your nice comment. Most of what I'm interested in at the moment is what I've written up on SA, so if you check out my profile you will see my recently published articles:

    Recent long positions include: SMTP, BV, SPRT, DRWI
    Aug 9 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NovaCopper Has Made A Lot Of Progress And Became Cheaper While Doing So [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I continue to hold a long term speculative position in this one, kind of a diversifier for me. Clearly there are risks, especially with the road that is needed and just the amount of time before production would begin. But the fact that this Alaska, a mining friendly area of 1st world country and with very high grade deposits is major plus. A lot of times you see these mining projects with huge reserves, but then you find out its in a country with significant geopolitical risks. I think its worth mentioning that some of the brightest value investment minds, Seth Klarman and John Paulson are also in this, owning nearly 20% combined. Klarman in particular I have great respect for, and its notable that he would even bother with this considering how small its size is compared to his $4B+ portfolio.
    Aug 5 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment