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Matthew Dow

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  • Cisco Needs To Think Like Zuckerberg And Buy Ubiquiti Networks [View article]
    This may or may not be true, I'm not a market predictor. Many investing books btw, will tell you NOT to try and predict the market, especially if you are a more bottom up investor :) Specifically to UBNT in the longer term, I feel extremely comfortable with UBNT, and I agree with Robert here I also picked up some shares. I don't see anything structurally wrong with UBNT itself, just a broader downturn in a lot of small cap tech stocks. Although UBNT has risen significantly in valuation in the past year or so, it still was/is significantly more profitable and cheaper than competitors in similar markets, most of which I attribute to a lack of understanding of their unique business model. I believe its relative valuation was very compelling. This has gradually changed as it gets more coverage, but there are still very promising opportunities in the next 1-2 years and I still expect overall outperformance from the stock.
    Apr 15 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D.E. Master Blenders 1753: A Low-Risk Squeeze-Out With An 8.2% Gross Return [View article]
    Thanks, very nice idea, i'll take a closer look at this. This one hits close to home for me, as I've lived in the Netherlands for a number of years and most mornings I drive by the coffee factory for DE (5 minutes from my house). Sometimes good opportunities are right in the backyard :)
    Mar 18 05:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Needs To Think Like Zuckerberg And Buy Ubiquiti Networks [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words Robert, I appreciate all your comments on my UBNT articles.

    I have to agree with Philip on this one, I think he has hit it on the head with his comment. I heard from another friend recently the same idea you are suggesting with CSCO. But I think that culturally the companies are very very different, and CSCO is exactly what Pera doesn't want to be. He despises the traditional IT sales model. As CEO he has done a great job bringing a truly innovative vision, which is truly a rarity. Just think, you don't get to new heights by being a follower, and he is on a mission to prove everyone wrong that this model can scale much further. We should not forgot too that Pera is definitely an engineer at heart. You can really feel this on conference calls when he sometimes dives right into techie mode. I'm sure the Wall Street guys are whispering to each other "what is this guy talking about? " :)

    I still believe it's not the time to bet against Pera and UBNT, as the revolution could still have a long way to go. I do though believe they will need some further great innovation or at least a new star product line if they are going to get over the next big hump in terms of stock price, or get to a level like you suggested of $100+. 2014 will be exciting to see, but my eyes are actually more focused on their other products like airVision, mFi and AirFiber 5 to see whether they are capturing any growth beyond the already successful airMax and UniFi. A lot of their huge run-up in the 2nd half of 2013 was due to UniFi and the release of 802.11ac, as they were first to market. So its important to see what else is in store in 2014. All of these thoughts are making me think its time to put together a new article :)
    Feb 27 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualstar: A Beaten Down Company With 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    Wow what a day! Stock was up as much as 70% as results have showed not only a drastic reduction in costs (which was clearly happening already), but also some promising top line growth with what appears to be some big improvements in customer wins. I'll probably take some profit off the table here, but I think the stock could continue much higher near term.
    Feb 14 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Commercial Television: Flagship Product International Expansion Should Drive Substantial Upside [View article]
    I think this is a good way to look at it. After doing my research I decided to take a small speculative position in the company. The biggest risk I see is that indeed, its recent success is completely based on 1 product, Dermawand. Just look at the history of infomercials, there are a few huge winners (e.g. Foreman Grill), but then there are thousands of losers. Also they fall out of popularity as quickly as they grow. So indeed for longer term success, the company needs to have a viable portfolio with several products to build off of. I do think that Dermawand has room to run in 2014, especially as they roll out to other countries and come out with a new design + colors which should help to keep sales strong. Based on these facts I decided to take my small position, but I wouldn't load up more unless I see further positive traction in Elastin-rp or something else.... also perhaps if the stock pulls back in price a bit more.

    Tom or anyone else, do you guys know much about the trends in customer subscriptions for DermaVital? I like the idea a lot about building some occurring revenues. I noticed when I looked back at the past few quarterly reports, they list the number of subscriptions, and initially it was increasing significantly, from 12k to 18k paying subscribers, but then it dropped a bit to 16.5k. Any insights on how the trend is progressing further?

    Matt
    Feb 7 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AVTC Files $100mm Libel Lawsuit Against Seeking Alpha Contributor And 420 Investor Founder Alan Brochstein [View instapost]
    Good Luck Alan. If you need help with legal fees, put one of those "donate for my cause" buttons up on your site and im sure we will all chip in!
    Matt
    Feb 6 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • International Commercial Television: Flagship Product International Expansion Should Drive Substantial Upside [View article]
    Great article, Im also in on this one, I think you hit all main points. I think as long as they execute reasonably well in 2014, big upside ahead.

    Matt
    Feb 5 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Sales At Video Display Should Narrow The Disconnect Between Book And Market Value [View article]
    Thanks for the article, I was also taking a look at this one, but seems you beat me to it in terms of getting an article out there :)

    I agree with your general premise, definitely undervalued as an asset play, and I especially like how the CEO is retiring yet he was STILL buying shares last year after they announced the sales, clearly he saw the undervaluation as well.
    Jan 16 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Another Big Year Ahead, Get In Now On The Short Term Sell-Off [View article]
    1.5m block of shares today, looks like Summit is finally out of the picture, that is how many shares they had remaining.
    Jan 15 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dice Holdings: A Stock With Upward Potential Heading Into 2014 [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the comment. I like their recent acquisitions in the healthcare job space, I think this continues to grow their strength in niche specialty recruiting sites which aggregated together have a lot of value. I'll respond to this further when i reply to the good questions of valuable insights above.
    Jan 3 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dice Holdings: A Stock With Upward Potential Heading Into 2014 [View article]
    Great questions valuable insights, I haven't forgotten you just been busy lately. I want to answer properly so i'll do so in a few days and reply again here.
    Jan 3 02:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HMG Courtland Properties: A Hidden Asset Play With 35% Upside [View article]
    Yeah well in terms of selling, remember it was trading at $5/share until they sold their biggest asset, and then it jumped 3-fold. So obviously, there was some cashing in at that point and exercising of options.

    Now you are right that it is surely possible, they hold on now to what is remaining for some years.... not liquidate completely. My thesis here is that as we go a bit further into 2014, they will liquidate a bit more and it will be come clearer that the remaining asset base is worth more than the market cap and the stock appreciates a bit, my projection is about the 35% I stated. If this happens, I will sell, I am not going to hold out and wait for further selling of assets. If we go 6 months here and nothing happens and it appears my general premise of them closing up shop was wrong... then I'll also sell. So that is a risk overall that my thesis is wrong , but I think even if that does happen the downside is minimal. So I look at it as very little downside risk, with some decent chance of 30%+ upside, which is why I like it.
    Jan 2 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion International: Upward Momentum Has Just Begun With A Game-Changing Contract [View article]
    I was offered to have a call with Steve Silverman the CEO on the week of Jan 6th. Still need to confirm date and time, but I'll post here afterwards after I do have the discussion.
    Dec 31 02:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HMG Courtland Properties: A Hidden Asset Play With 35% Upside [View article]
    My point with the article is that there is significantly more left than the current market cap in my opinion, which means as a shareholder you can receive more than the current price. So for example if the market price currently says there is enough to pay out 4 special dividends of $1/share, my point is there is actually enough assets to pay 5 or even a bit more, so you would net a positive return.
    Dec 30 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HMG Courtland Properties: A Hidden Asset Play With 35% Upside [View article]
    Yeah there is always the possibility they don't liquidate and make an acquisition instead. I just see it unlikely at this point seeing recent actions, because it's not that they just sold 1 revenue generating property, but they sold both of the major ones they had in a 1 month period, and they also sold some smaller ones they had in New England. So suddenly they got rid of ALL investment properties in less than a year, and then once all taxes and everything was settled from the sales, suddenly the next quarter they pay out a large dividend, which is not something they had been doing at all recently. The company is a REIT, but they had been losing money the past few years, operating expenses were more than revenue coming in. Being a REIT of course they need to pay 90% of profits, but they weren't making any profits for several years so they could have also just realised that the business model was not working in the way it was setup. So we'll see what happens, i'm betting on a return of everything to shareholders, in which case i'm positive there is more to receive than 17m (current market cap). If I'm wrong and they do make an acquistion of another investment property or show another sign of a different course, than I'll sell out, but even in that case I expect to lose very little if anything because of how well the stock is supported by the balance sheet at this point.

    I think their operating cash flow issues would be the likely reason why they didn't do other actions such as buying back shares as you suggest.
    Dec 29 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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