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Matthew Dow  

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  • Geeknet: The Force Will Awaken Again In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Stock seems to be doing well lately as well, maybe anticipation of positive earnings coming up in a few weeks.
    Apr 25, 2015. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks - Undervalued And Ready To Rock [View article]
    I believe UbiquitiUser's last comment about the size of the US WISP industry vs. the total GLOBAL sales potential of Ubiquiti is an important one that was completely lost in the context of the discussions/debate that were going back and forth here. From an investor perspective, which is the focus of this article and most people on Seeking Alpha, it's very important that Ubiquiti is viewed as a global company with good market positioning in all geographies. Myself and others have covered this in detail in previous articles on UBNT.
    Apr 21, 2015. 05:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha's Least Popular Article Ever [View instapost]
    2500 PVs your least read???? oh my.... i can point you to a couple at 100 or 200 PVs from me if you like. You have no idea what ignored means in this context :) There was a thread once on the contributor forum for "dud" articles, some people had some that literally were like 50 PVs, and this was even when Yahoo syndication existed.
    Apr 20, 2015. 03:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds' Cigarettes Are Good For You(r Portfolio) [View article]
    About 6 months ago I played this. At the time bought $60 put options to protect downside, bought LO, and sold calls in high $60s. Collected 2 dividends and my net gain was about 5% with almost full downside protection. Was a great way to park money that otherwise would have been in cash
    Apr 19, 2015. 02:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contest: Describe Your Best Contrarian Idea For A Chance At Big Prizes [View article]
    I think also Daniel if I understand your premise correctly, you are looking primarily for compelling ideas that are developed convincingly with new insights, which are contrarian to consensus. This is regardless of market cap. So for example, if a small cap company only has 5 analysts following it, it would still be "relatively unknown", however if your main thesis is that "All 5 Wall Street analysts say to buy this stock, but here is why you should short it", then this is contrarian and covers the main target of the competition.

    The "everybody knows" phrase could make people think it has to be a well known large cap stock, but the problem with going with huge companies here is that typically it's harder to be contrarian because of say the 30 analysts who follow the stock and the tens of SA contributors who write about it, inevitably some will be bullish and some bearish.

    So my expectation here, is that most people would settle on small - mid cap names, that are not completely unheard of tiny micro caps (so they have some following), but the following is mostly one directional and they are bringing a contrarian stance.

    Let me know if that is a clear understanding or not :)

    Apr 16, 2015. 04:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading China's Fortune [View instapost]
    You can even write $70 or $90 October calls for a decent premium upon quick check, the $90 is over 600 dollars.
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contest: Describe Your Best Contrarian Idea For A Chance At Big Prizes [View article]
    Great Daniel, nice to see a quick follow up. I really like the prize structure and it seems you've taken a lot of the good suggestions given. I would love to again participate, although I need to really think about this topic whether I can come up with a good idea, and most importantly find the time to write it up :) Anyways, regardless I'm sure there will be many great entries.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting The World Today – Friday, April 10, 2015 [View instapost]
    Yeah I mean Chris definitely has something to offer that a lot of other contributors don't. But even so, I definitely wish success on this whole initiative, excited to see how it shapes out after a few months.
    Apr 12, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Writing So Many Articles About Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    He's not getting paid from SA for any articles he publishes, they are regular non-exclusive. But since he's a fairly well known hedge fund manager with lots of media coverage, he obviously doesn't need the pennies from SA for each PV. But he is of course using it as a platform to repeatedly pound the drum on his short thesis. I was interested in this idea a few weeks ago, but now I've read so much back and forth from shorts, longs, its clear everyone has an agenda and I wouldn't know who to believe. Bottom line, is I'm on the sidelines. Similar to Herbalife, this stock could bounce all over the place as the tug of war continues for a while.
    Apr 12, 2015. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting The World Today – Friday, April 10, 2015 [View instapost]
    Congrats Chris if that is the case, seems light years ahead of other services.
    Apr 12, 2015. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks - Undervalued And Ready To Rock [View article]
    Good comment Mingran, and good article author - you have provided a well written summary of the key investment points. Myself I actually consider myself a value investor, or sometimes maybe you could say growth at a reasonable price. In any case UBNT is an example for me where I've seen an excellent marriage of the two predominant investing "styles" if you will. Honestly I don't think too often "is this a value or growth stock", instead I just think "what is this worth, and how much can I pay for it", to determine whether to invest.
    I do think shorts were looking short term, namely at some of the issues we've seen recently like around Forex rates and trouble war zones impacting results. But any investor here looking longer term, just out a couple of years, should do quite well looking at their pipeline of products and unique place in the market. Perhaps most importantly is that the CEO, Pera, is as committed and financially incentivized for long term success as you will see with any company out there. Remember he doesn't even take a yearly salary and owns 65% of the company.
    Apr 12, 2015. 01:50 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geeknet: The Force Will Awaken Again In 2015 [View article]
    Yeah, to be 100% honest they got me at first - I started writing this article at the end of March and added that in on April 1st, and then a bit later I was pretty suspicious.... then I was reading the facebook comment stream on the product itself at the bottom of the page I thought eh lets leave it in :) I think it gives you an idea in any case the kind of quirky creativity that exists at the company!
    Apr 10, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion International Holdings Inc.: This Promoted Stock May Get Axed To Zero [View article]
    The financials are obviously still pretty ugly. The key part of the whole press release I believe is this:
    "The increases in production capacity and inventory levels created a need for capital that has outpaced the investment expectations of its primary investors. The Company requires and is actively seeking additional capital to take it through its current phase of growth. Consequently, AXION has adjusted capacity expansion projects, engaged in discussions with our industry partners, realigned manufacturing activities with existing customer obligations, and continues to actively manage its inventory to meet all customer expectations and commitments."

    So basically, their wealthy private investors who own more than half the company and have been backing it for years, appear to be finally stepping back. I believe this puts the company at a real crossroads - the growth and opportunities appear to be materializing further, but unless they raise funding it's going to be lights out in a hurry. I think the stock is really a call option right now. Under $0.30, if they secure more funding the stock will double or more easily. If not, then they are going to be bankrupt sooner than later. I'm not sure they can just do a reverse split and do a successful secondary with these financials.
    Apr 10, 2015. 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geeknet: The Force Will Awaken Again In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for your comment and opinions, but I respectfully disagree. You say they are a 1 quarter retailer. Obviously they do receive a large portion of revenues in Q4, this is common place for most retailers. Take some of the other similar sized companies I mentioned in the article, and they all have very similar patterns of quarterly revenues. Even Amazon basically makes zero operating income in every quarter except Q4.
    Also as for the assertion that they will "run the cash balance down for as long as it keeps them afloat", I would agree with you and be concerned if they were rapidly draining cash. I mentioned this at one point in the article, that often stocks trade near cash value because they are rapidly losing assets. But this is not really the case here. Since they received more cash in 2012 after the sale of their media segment, at the end of Q4 their cash has been between $57 and $54.7mm in 2012, 2013, and 2014. This is hardly rapid depletion. Now going forward over the next 1-2 years, I agree that this needs to be monitored closely - if the core business does worse than I expected, they will then need to change strategic course. But I am confident that with fairly heavy insider ownership here on the board they will make that change fairly quickly if needed.

    As for liquidity you are correct - the stock could easily drop to $5 on a couple of big sells, or pop to $9 on some big buys. If it drops, and nothing has changed in my thesis, I'll buy more. On the upside I believe the company is worth more than $9, so in an event like this I also won't sell quick. I won't debate the merits of trading vs. investing, but for me this is not a quick trade. In fact due to the liquidity, anyone investing in a company like this with any sizeable position would be foolish to be trying to do with a short term horizon.
    Apr 10, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geeknet: The Force Will Awaken Again In 2015 [View article]
    I was impressed with management forthcoming nature on the last conf. call, basically stating they had screwed up, were accountable, and problems were being fixed. Personally I like this non-sugar coating approach. I suspect that after last year McCarthy is on a pretty short leash, several long time board members own significant stock and they won't allow further deterioration. I think the incentives are there for her to get it right. I did not cover management in depth in this article, but I'm working on collecting some further insights and I'll post an update if I get any meaningful insights to share.
    Apr 10, 2015. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment