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Matthew Dow  

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  • Geeknet: The Force Will Awaken Again In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks guys for the nice comments, much appreciated!! I was actually traveling yesterday and casually checked my stocks before boarding a plane- I almost dropped my phone on this one, lol. Anyways its all I could have hoped for in a short time and then some, price was even better than my estimates.
    May 27, 2015. 05:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RealNetworks Has Significant Upside Optionality With Rhapsody Stake [View article]
    A further note on this - I played around yesterday a bit with the new RealTimes app. I do think its a lot more promising then their first RealPlayer Cloud app. I know personally my wife has spent many hours making video compilations using iPhoto and iMovie on our mac, and this essentially can do the same thing for you instantly. Now as a free user, it's quite limited - it only let me make a "story" with 7 photos. It showed a potential story of 120+ photos/videos based on my trip to Indonesia (where I happen to be right now), which seemed great, but then I found out you need to pay and be a premium user for a story that big :)
    Bottom line though, is that I believe they will monetize this app better than the first generation, because users are much more enticed to upgrade to paying sooner. You can also pay for a yearly unlimited storage subscription for $100, sync all your photos from your phone automatically, and also include all the montage/story features for a price that is quite comparable to major cloud storage platforms (Google Drive, DropBox, OneDrive, etc). Actually most of the other platforms provide a maximum of 1TB of storage for similar prices.
    May 24, 2015. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RealNetworks Has Significant Upside Optionality With Rhapsody Stake [View article]
    Yeah that's not a bad idea. You can get November $7.50 calls for about $0.30 each. If the product does nothing in the coming 6 months, stock will surely be below this level and you get nothing, but if product suddenly took off, which in my view is unlikely but always possible.... stock would probably double. I would prefer actually longer term options in this case, i think risks are still quite high you get nothing on this bet.
    Although if you said there was a 10% chance of stock doubling, 10% chance of it going to $10, and an 80% chance of it staying under $7.50 and options expiring worthless, the average holding period return would still be well over 30%. So from that perspective, could be worth a small speculative bet.
    May 23, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RealNetworks Has Significant Upside Optionality With Rhapsody Stake [View article]
    I wrote some articles on RNWK and was bullish for a time starting about 2 years back. Like you, I saw a solid balance sheet, old dinosaur internet company that had fallen on hard times and was forgotten, and Glaser had come back to fix things up, which I figured he had plenty of motivation considering his equity stake. So far I've been disappointed, and actually some time ago I sold out of my position because I felt they were continuing to burn lots of cash, quarter after quarter, and most of their "promising" new products were much slower to materialize than hoped. They had several potential new gaming initiatives, all of which have not done much, and Real Player Cloud app has gotten a lot of downloads but its been quite clear from the past few conf. calls that they still have not figured out how to really begin monetizing it. Now they have come out with this photo sharing extension, which looks interesting with some of the features like the personal montages. I need to try it out a bit to form a full opinion on it. There is clearly upside potential here, but I'm still in a "i'll believe it when I see it" mode, and as the cash has been whittling away I got a lot more nervous about the downside.
    Now Rhapsody is an interesting one, as it's been doing much better lately then it was a few years back, so you may be right on this piece. But they still are not doing well financially, so definitely a lot of risk there. http://bit.ly/1AjAStM
    Overall and I'm staying on the sidelines for now, I see too much risk and uncertainty for my taste.
    May 22, 2015. 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Because You Can Make It Here… [View instapost]
    Starbucks for sure grew like a weed and expanded rapidly internationally. But for every Starbucks like company, I suppose there were hundreds of similar style chain restaurants/cafes which failed to meet growth expectations, no? Just an assumption, I didn't spend anytime researching this, but The chances that these "hot" IPO companies hit speedbumps is relatively higher than the chance they become international phenoms
    May 17, 2015. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways To Spend Your Time, 1 Way Not To, & Lorillard [View article]
    Chris, one thing you forgot in your %. Where is the time spent on writing SA articles?? :)
    May 14, 2015. 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways To Spend Your Time, 1 Way Not To, & Lorillard [View article]
    I think you are correct, although you could ask all kinds of questions on how to define "is it a good value". In addition Chris largely focuses I believe on special situation investing, which requires a heavy focus on what he refers to as premise testing, especially when you are talking about tings like the probability of deals closing. For straight up lets buy and hold good and cheap businesses until they appreciate to fair value, your simplistic system is a pretty good start.
    May 14, 2015. 06:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar crumbles as retail sales sting [View news story]
    Thanks Daniel, It's exciting and also a bit scary at the same time! Will be a big change. I don't follow currencies closely either, but I did some analysis of it due to a few of my stock picks in the last 6 months, and what I understood from many analysts was that one reason for the big forex move was that people were leaving the Euro and heavily buying dollars with the expectation that interest rates were finally going to start moving up. Where as in the Euro zone it was the opposite - for many years interst rates have been a few hundred basis points higher here than in the US, so a lot of people buying short term fixed income instruments starved for yield were parking money in relatively safe Euro zone countries , but that demand has evaporated because of the decreasing interest rates in the Euro Zone (due to worsening economy), and the shift to the USD. Now in the news in the past few weeks are several reports indicating the US economy is slowing a bit, which could push off the Feds interest rate hikes, and also there has been better economic news coming out of Europe. If this reversal continues, we could again see a stronger Euro by trhe end of the year.... although it will take quite some further economic signals to really make that full reversal happen IMO.
    May 14, 2015. 05:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar crumbles as retail sales sting [View news story]
    True, although your euros are becoming worth more again. I feel you on this, as I'm an American living in Europe and most of my money is in Euros. I'm moving back to the US next month, after 9 years here, and just my luck it's about the worst exchange rate in that whole period to take my money back to the US. On stocks.... there are some names I like, which have been hurt by a strong dollar, and they could start to show better results. I wrote at op idea on Philips (PHG), which is one good example.
    May 14, 2015. 05:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tom Brady, Punished [View instapost]
    It's not his only one either ;)
    May 13, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tom Brady, Punished [View instapost]
    Thanks Chris, far more entertaining then the repeated crap I keep reading about this on ESPN.... story has gotten so old. With all the appeals, we'll probably keep hearing about it the rest of the year!
    May 12, 2015. 09:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CafePress's Depressed Stock Price Presents Opportunity [View article]
    Nice analysis. I came across the company when doing my research on Geeknet. Not the same business, but was listed as a similar eCommerce business by management for compensation purposes. Unfortunately perhaps I didn't look at it closely as you have :) The companies though are similar in the respect that both have a lot of cash and the core businesses are trading at very low multiples. On my Geeknet analysis though I did do a multiples comparison of similar businesses, and you can easily see with a few hundred basis points improvement in operating margin that valuation should be much higher. Thanks for the idea and short/succinct write-up.
    May 8, 2015. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasts for Star Wars VII on the rise [View news story]
    I also really like $GKNT to bounce back, with star wars being a major catalyst. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Alibaba At 10x Earnings [View article]
    Thomas- what about currency impacts here? With many major currencies including the Yen down 20% against the dollar in the past year, is that a major driver for the current discount?
    Apr 27, 2015. 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geeknet: The Force Will Awaken Again In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Stock seems to be doing well lately as well, maybe anticipation of positive earnings coming up in a few weeks.
    Apr 25, 2015. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
651 Comments
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