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Matthew Dow

 
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  • Best Long Idea For 2015: McDermott International At $2.50 (Part I) [View article]
    Yeah... can't go over 100% on a short (not counting any leverage usage of course). I suppose the author misspoke on that sentence.
    Dec 26, 2014. 01:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: McDermott International At $2.50 (Part I) [View article]
    Yes, exactly my point with my post below and the way i'm playing it.
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: McDermott International At $2.50 (Part I) [View article]
    Thanks for the article. The balance sheet is not quite as great as it appears, as I believe they have some big capex in progress for new vessels. That said I like the direction of the new CEO. If oil stays down for a prolonged period they will continue to be pressured due to reduced spending by the majors. if oil stabilizes a bit higher this is likely to double or triple quickly. I decided to play this with a few Jan 2016 calls at $2.50 strike. If oil stabilizes ill do well - if not, i wont lose too much.
    Dec 24, 2014. 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ModusLink Global Could Be A Double [View article]
    Very interesting thanks, will take a closer look myself. And great to see you back on SA Thomas! :)
    Dec 24, 2014. 05:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    I will 2nd the notion that this has been a GREAT dialogue. Sr. Editors, Top Contributors, and some of the most prolific commenters have all chimed in. Well done Chris for stimulating thought provoking discussion for the Holidays :) Kathleen I can sympathize - I've actually had a bad year in my personal portfolio, way underperformed due to a couple of choices where the odds didn't work out for me. But I'm looking at performance over the longer term to judge success, and in the few years I've been on SA I've done well both from reading ideas from other authors, as well as posting my own ideas and learning from the excellent comments/critiques. As for the thumbs up/down, it was an idea I threw out there - not yet sure it's the answer, but I do think it would be quite interesting to have some easier way to provide negative feedback. On a single article this can obvously be skewed towards emotion and individual bad experiences with a company/investment - I see this all the time where you get negative commenters who don't provide much substance but have just been burned on the stock and are negative on it no matter what. But over a wider sample, this method should start to form a pattern to provide some stats on how well an author's content is received by the readers.
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    The editorial staff has a journalism bent to it traditionally, so they are often very good at catching grammar and spelling kind of mistakes :) Sometimes if you are writing about a popular stock, they will challenge you to ensure you are providing something "new" to the conversation.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    You can write regular articles and choose to designate any earnings to charity. They have this as an option in the payment details - you can select "donation" instead of bank transfer. I don't know too much about it, but if that is something holding you back, it shouldn't, I would send SA an email to get details on it.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    In the spirit of "self policing", what could be interesting is if we could have in addition to the "like" button, a "thumbs down" or dislike feature. This could be added both to comment streams but also to the overall Article itself (to like or dislike the article from the Author). Similar to what you see on many message boards and forums. SA could then store this, and when contributors submit articles to publish if they notice that those authors have a big disproportion of dislikes/negative feedback on their comments and prior articles, they could use this as a method to help them decide where they need to be more critical. I mean lets face it - most of the editors are busy full time reviewing articles, but they do not have the time to do full fact checking or other in depth research on someones article. Readers however do this all the time and voice their opinions in the comments. If SA could capture this feedback more accurately via like/dislike buttons they could better screen out for the future articles.
    Dec 22, 2014. 03:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Immigration Reform With American Apparel [View instapost]
    So why an instablog? Too risque for SA editors? *chuckle* keep up the great work Chris, I love reading your combination of entertainment and good investing ideas
    Dec 21, 2014. 04:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, Gold, Oil, And Interest Rate Extremes [View article]
    An SCO Jan 16 put atm strike of $75 cost about $23.. Seems like a lot to put out, but the chances of this falling below $50 in the next year at some point is quite good. Although this requires a big outlay, you could be right its a much safer play.
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, Gold, Oil, And Interest Rate Extremes [View article]
    Thanks chris for the article, interesting idea. Seems like good odds, for example to write ATM calls that expire in say march, good premiums due to extreme volatility. My only hesitation, is what hapoens if oil goes to $40 or less? sCO traded over $200 in 2009!! Yikes. How do you get comfortable with that risk?
    Dec 19, 2014. 04:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources Corporation Is A Spin-Off With A Substantial Opportunity In The Golden State [View article]
    Insiders keep buying... Another $200k this week
    Dec 12, 2014. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Ubiquiti Networks For Now [View article]
    Yeah, i'm not a technical follower, but it does seem to be holding fairly steady. I see great long term upside, but not too sure on the timing. I've taken some stock off the table and invested in some LEAPs.
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources Corporation Is A Spin-Off With A Substantial Opportunity In The Golden State [View article]
    Yeah I agree, I think there is a perfect storm that caused excess selling. I mean for sure if Oil keeps falling or doesn't rebound much, the stock is unlikely to go up THAT much, but I feel quite comfortable with the margin of safety here.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources Corporation Is A Spin-Off With A Substantial Opportunity In The Golden State [View article]
    Thanks for this article. I'm not an expert in this industry, but been looking to put some capital to work in a spin-off as well as something that has tremendous upside leverage attached to oil prices, in the event of a rebound. I decided today to buy some $5 May 2015 calls, which only cost about a net $0.65 at current prices, which to me seems to completely ignore the asymmetric potential of even a slight rebound in oil prices. I like this play because downside risk is capped, and if I invested in the stock instead and oil prices continue to fall another $20 bucks then I could lose more easily. Some additional points:
    1. I like how mgmt is highly incentivised on ROIC/ROA metrics, and in general outperforming peers and standard stock benchmarks. Top executives can earn about 4-5x their base salary roughly in stock compensation looking at their long term goals through 2016.
    2. While they loaded up on debt, leverage is now quite good, and as long as they can "survive" the storm in oil prices, and small rebound and the stock has asymmetric upside.
    3. Speaking of surviving the storm, I think they are positioned for this to be possible. As the author states there is about $1.5B in liquidity immediately available, which even with big drop in prices they could still maintain their current spending levels for a year without needing more financing. But more than likely they will trim back some exploration and capex spending, in which case they probably have a 2 year buffer to be able to survive until prices rebound. This I would say is a worst case scenario.
    4. I'm interested how the 3.5x EBITDAX multiple used for valuation compares to peers? If things get better, I could see this expanding.
    5. Insider activity looks initially encouraging. Some additional purchases besides the initial distributions.
    6. Back on valuation.... I read that back in May/June time frame some analysts predicted the company could be worth around $19B! With roughly 30% of production assets from OXY, and with OXY currently worth around $60B, that seems to make sense, without doing any fancy calculations. But now as the company has gone public at exactly the wrong time, and add to that the normal Index Fund selling and other bigger investors dumping the much smaller company after distribution on Dec 2nd - this depressed price of under $2B seems way off to me, as it is what 3% of OXY?
    7. As for the risks around the company in terms of California Legislation and other factors, for sure they exist, but as I think the author rightly points out the current value of this company is largely in existing production that is already producing and will continue to do so. It's not all speculative based on further exploration possibilities. That is all a bonus.

    Let me know what you think of my thoughts,
    Matt
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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