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Matthew Dow

 
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  • DragonWave: After Years Of Disappointment, Big Upside Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment!
    Jun 27, 2014. 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services: Despite Recent Issues, Conservative Accounting And A Robust Business Model Point To Undervaluation [View article]
    Thanks Henry for the comments, I hadn't noticed this, but its good insight. Lets hope for a good quarter!
    Jun 27, 2014. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DragonWave: After Years Of Disappointment, Big Upside Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Hi Jeffrey thanks for your comments. I provided my forecasted estimates for the coming quarter and fiscal year, and then projected what I think the valuation will be based on how it historically has been priced with a comparable business situation. I'll also come back to your first comment and the questions you asked there a bit later.
    Jun 27, 2014. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DragonWave: After Years Of Disappointment, Big Upside Potential In 2014 [View article]
    I don't deny it is a risky stock, I explained that in the article. My premise is that it has been left for dead, and there are now several different catalysts coming together, so I see much improved results in the coming year, which I think will boost the stock nicely due to how out of favor it has become.

    That said I understand if you don't agree, and I encourage you to publish some articles on your ideas.
    Jun 27, 2014. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DragonWave: After Years Of Disappointment, Big Upside Potential In 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. Their technology is quite good, and my premise is based on what has already been announced (Reliance Jio from India will use Dragonwave and Ceragon as its 2 providers, so obviously they aren't concerned about the company disappearing). Also in terms of Sprint, this part is not certain yet as to timing, but all signs are that they will continue improving their 4G/LTE capabilities on the old Clearwire spectrum in the near future. They have announced plans to do so. It is possible they could always decide to use less of DragonWave's products to do this then in the past this is a risk, but in the world of technology backward compatibility is very important, and once a vendor has a large presence it is difficult to replace them. So it is quite likely they finish 4G/LTE capability using DragonWave products.
    Jun 27, 2014. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ING Groep NV Looks Significantly Undervalued Today [View article]
    permanent job, is only a contractual thing, it has nothing to do with what profession you do. In the Netherlands a company can only give a temporary contract, usually 1 year a few times. After that they either need to let you go, or give you permanent. Now for students and those under a certain age, there is some different things like they give 0 hour contracts and every week based on demand maybe it varies what you get.. i think for waiting tables this is common.

    But what banks care about is you have a permanent contract from your employee, and then they look at what your salary is.... now what profession it is. But like I said, this was some years ago, they have gotten more strict now.... but i believe this still factors in a lot

    Matt
    Jun 27, 2014. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ING Groep NV Looks Significantly Undervalued Today [View article]
    Thanks Stephen for the interesting piece. I have lived in the Netherlands as an expat for about 9 years now, so I'm quite familiar with ING. My house mortgage is actually through RaboBank and my bank accounts with ABN AMRO, but my pension is National Nederlanden, tied to ING and I actually did an IT project at ING a few years back. As they were mandated to separate a lot of their operations post the crisis, there was a lot of work to be done there in terms of separating banking operations from investment management from insurance, etc..... For example on the IT side, they had a lot of shared data centers and they needed to build a new one to prepare to operate independently.

    Also about the Netherlands and interest only loans - this is true that it was structured this way. I myself have a house mortgage from 2008 which is about 80% interest only. In Holland people's jobs are quite secure contractually - so if you had a "permanent" job, meaning its hard to fire you, the banks consider this as additional collateral and they were willing to give more loans. typically they would give you 4x-5x your gross salary with no money down (assuming you had a permanent job and not temporary). This however is changing as you said, the laws are now more strict, but for those who are grandfathered in, like my current mortgage this won't change easily. Also interest was fully tax deductible, which in most european countries it is not. This was another big driver of interest only mortgages.

    As for an investment, I have no looked that closely at ING, but I know their market position is very strong and not going away, and I agree with you that probably this is a good long term bet as the banking sector comes back into favor.... still has a long way to factor up I think. I'll take a deeper look at this for a diversifier in my portfolio, thanks again!
    Jun 26, 2014. 10:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Support.com: An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    thanks for the nice comment
    Jun 25, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualstar: Executing Well And Still Undervalued [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, and yes indeed this I think is a fair statement. Being such a small company, they are of course more impacted by larger deals and revenues have more tendency to be lumpy. What really gets me though is the continued insider buying, every time the price dips a bit. They never buy significant amounts, of course the float is quite low anyways so difficult to do so, but they keep slowly and consistently drip by drip building their stake. Bronson has a capital management firm, but he only has 2 or 3 investments and he is putting a lot of his own money into Qualstar. As he originally bought in at nearly $2, I can imagine that they at least try to milk what they can to get back to profit. So he may have also been buying just to try and lower his cost basis. Based on this behavior I think buying in now is a good proposition, as I think its likely we have a few good quarters with low expenses, slightly better sales and management is fully incentivized to try and prop up the stock price short term and make sure they return to profit on their investment. I think the stock price could hit $1.8 - $2. Then I also wouldn't be surprised if they try to push for a sale to a bigger company eventually, originally that was Bronson's plan when he first was an activist shareholder making a proxy fight.
    Jun 23, 2014. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Support.com: An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    you are correct there is no conviction buying, but my point was looking at the pattern of how many of the same directors behaved 1 year ago, where they exercised and immediately sold all (stock price much higher than now), and now this time around the behavior was much different. A few of them sold part of it, you can see the details here:
    http://bit.ly/1lLRhgk
    Jun 23, 2014. 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Support.com: An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hindu is a religion, not a language. I suppose you are trying to say Hindi, the national language of India. Although I've had my fun with customer support of many companies, I can tell you the reality of how it works - often there are off-shored / outsourced support teams in India or other Asian countries and this is very common among all Fortune 500 sized companies. And in most cases, the shareholders love it when it drives down costs and allows their favorite company to keep driving profits higher with lower costs.... Of course, they cry fowl once they have a bad experience themselves with a support question!
    Jun 22, 2014. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Support.com: An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hi Jon thanks for the comments. On gross margin, in my analysis I noticed that it is not smooth quarter to quarter, you can see this looking at the historical trend of the past few years. So there is some seasonality to it. My main comfort that they are going to replace a lot of the services business, is that they announced the contract for Comcast Xfinity Home. This should be a large growth market, as I detailed in the article, and this program will ramp up in the coming months. as for NOLs, you are right that they can be tricky to use on being acquired, but my premise was that as their new services business grows they can become quickly profitable again, because by losing 15% or so of their business, they have gone just below the profitability threshold - once they regain a bit of revenue combined with lowered operating expenses later in the year which should happen after they finish rolling out the new Nexus platform they will be profitable again.

    As for the CEO, this is a good question, I didn't go into this in the article. What I do know about her is that she successfully lead the Citrix GoToAssist division for several years, and this product was the market leader in the remote support assistance market 5 years running, gaining share in that time. So she was quite successful by most accounts at Citrix, and comes to Support.com with relevant experience in a similar market to which the Nexus Platform is targeted towards.
    Jun 21, 2014. 11:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services: Despite Recent Issues, Conservative Accounting And A Robust Business Model Point To Undervaluation [View article]
    Yes they run auction services. But not for consumer markets - so not like eBay, instead this is targeted as enterprise wholesale markets. They have exclusive contracts with some big suppliers, like the US Government who will provide old assets to be sold at wholesale prices via auction. The company then has a large network of registered buyers who will bid. The value here is in the fact that its taken the company quite some time, well over a decade to build up a network of buyers/sellers which is several million and growing. Because of the way the contracts work, this is not a market that eBay or Amazon can just come in and replace them. They could of course buy them out, but the competitive advantages are quite strong due to their established network.
    Jun 21, 2014. 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services: Despite Recent Issues, Conservative Accounting And A Robust Business Model Point To Undervaluation [View article]
    Thanks for the comment and nice write up, I think you cover the key points nice and concisely.
    Jun 20, 2014. 02:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services: Despite Recent Issues, Conservative Accounting And A Robust Business Model Point To Undervaluation [View article]
    Thanks for your comment!
    Jun 19, 2014. 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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