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Matthew Dow

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  • Intel: Enough Of The Nonsense [View article]
    Well said Ashraf. I do not know Intel as intimately as you, but I fully agree that you need to look at the longer term story here. I could see this as well when I recently looked at some suppliers, such as ASML, where Intel is defiitely leading the pack in preparing for the 20 & 14nm nodes, and I see in these generations this is where their R&D muscle and process technology advantages are really going to shine, and my current expectation is that they then fully become relevant in the phone/tablet space. But as you said, in the 2H 2013 we should start to see signs whether this is indeed the case, and that is the time to watch carefully the developments and see whether to stay the course of get out quick...
    Feb 11 04:33 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Read Seeking Alpha, Consider Investing In TheStreet [View article]
    Interesting idea Mike. I have never looked myself at theStreet, but what I do know just as an experienced user and writer on SA and other similar sites, I flat out don't like theStreet, I think they have a lot of computer generated crap articles. In my mind, the long term winners in this market are going to be those who can really produce quality CONTENT, as that will drive the monetization of subscriptions. This also includes quality user interaction, which we all know SA is far and away winning at. So with that said, even if it could look interesting on financials to some degree, i'm going to pass.
    Sep 21 02:14 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Now The Dust Is Settling, Time To Load Up On Shares [View article]
    yeah, I think the name xtremetrader says it all :) My view on BBRY as a long is based primarily on the strength of the balance sheet providing a margin of safety for downside risk. Sure, the company might falter and never make it back to glory..... but at this point, you won't lose a lot, and if they do turn around to any degree the upside is huge.
    Aug 3 11:31 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's 'Secret' Projects That Will Completely Rock Your World [View article]
    Thanks nice article to show that Mr. Softie is still quite innovative. As another comment stated, for sure major competitors also have these kind of projects running. But what Microsoft has that many of them do not is a solid margin of safety in the moat around a significant portion of its business - namely the enterprise focsued part (server/tools, business services). If any of these innovative projects work out, or other things such as Surface, WP8, etc.... there is no where for the stock to go but up. If none of it works the next few years? We have much of the same, a slow moving cash cow with a good dividend. I can't complain about the risk/reward here, it gets more compelling every day I think about it.
    Apr 15 04:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's 'Secret' Projects That Will Completely Rock Your World [View article]
    Yeah I always hear a lot about Ballmer being the issue, but i'm not really sold on it. Operatinally speaking, the company has done really well the past decade, it just continues to get a lower multiple by the market due to fears that it won't do so well in the future. Whether that is due to Ballmer or not, I don't know, but it is true that once the general "perception" is one way, it can be very hard to change it. I think in the end, whether Ballmer is there or not, the stock will only go up significantly if one of many catalysts turns into something, i.e new products, gaining market share in tablets/phones, etc. My whole investment thesis on the company, which you can read in my article btw, is that the core enterprise business is so strong that it provides a good moat and protection against the downside. http://bit.ly/YItBi8
    Apr 15 05:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 0% And 15% Over The Next 5 Years [View article]
    good analysis. I agree we cannot speculate on something new and significant..... although new alone is almost a certainty, how significant it is to the bottom line is anybodies guess. But the way the company is priced currently, it assumes that nothing new will be significant, and the ongoing business will contract with no earnings growth. Although I expect further margin compression, I think all of these negative assumptions together is overly pessimistic, so I still see a good buying opportunity here, as the general market expectations have largely been deflated on the company and many potential catalysts remain which will only favor the upside (increased dividends/buybacks, new successful products, deal with china mobile, etc).
    Apr 4 08:37 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Beats Apple On This 'Buffett-esque' Metric, But It Still Faces Headwinds [View article]
    Thanks for linking to my article! You bring up some interesting points, I was not aware of this metric.... although as some other comments pointed out i'm not sure it's really a useful comparison. For me the writing is on the wall for Amazon - they cannot possibly maintain the expected growth long term that the market expects, and sooner or later traditional valuation will win out and the stock will fall. Just like during the dot com era everyone thought stocks were going up and up and valuation didnt matter.... that same type of euphoria has surrounded amazon, but eventually it will fade. An EV/EBITDA of almost 45 is just not a sustainable valuation.
    Mar 21 05:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Deadweight Now, But Just Wait Until The Next Great Innovation Is Released [View article]
    But do you really think that there is no new products in the pipeline? No chances of share buybacks, dividend increases, etc? Any of these potential catalysts will be positive for the stock. With such low expectations built in, also any small positive earnings surprise in the next quarter or two will also make the stock jump. And if the low expectations come in? Stock will be flat, as it has been since earnings. So I see a compelling risk/reward ratio here.
    Feb 27 03:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes Is A Ticking Time Bomb [View article]
    The commenter who was ranting about my spelling mistake has 15 comments on SA, and all of them but 1 or 2 are criticizing authors for spelling/grammar mistakes! So have to learn to ignore those ones.... :)
    Jan 15 09:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Be Fearful [View article]
    I consider myself a bottom up fundamental value investor with little attention to macro themes, and I don't agree with your negative overtones towards things like Obamacare (honestly I try to stay as far from politics as possible with investing articles... leads to too many side tracked politically fueled comments, no matter which side of the aisle you stand on, but I admit it can be hard in some cases).

    Now all of that said, I am commenting because this is one hell of an article and is very well thought out and researched, SA will go far if we keep getting this type of work! So great job! :)
    Sep 20 06:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft - Despite Earnings Miss The Enterprise Business Remains Grossly Undervalued [View article]
    Yes I agree wigit5. I use it myself all the time, but for mass enterprise deployment - forget it in my opinion. There is also a lot of other applications which integrate with exchange or MS office, so it is not so simple to replace it even if individual users were fine with Google Docs. For example my current client has a big reliance on exchange public folders, so it could not just switch to gmail.
    Jul 19 11:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Undervalued, But I Was Wrong - The Moat Is Not That Compelling [View article]
    MSFT's moat in the enterprise is stronger than you think. When an enterprise rolls out 100k end users with Windows 7, (which most did recently), combined with MS Office, Lync, Sharepoint, Yammer, etc.. something that many big companies are doing, this is a strong ecosystem that they are now locked into for the long term. Even if they want to change, it takes year to run large transformation programs. I'm working at a MSFT centric client now, one of the largest companies in the world, and they are currently in the middle of a huge transformation to Sharepoint, and they are using the MS cloud as well. This costs so much money and time, they will not leave this ecosystem for years. There are long term, multi-year license and support agreements in place.

    So for enterprise applications, MSFT is as much relevant in the cloud as their competitors. Yes Amazon and others are better for certain applications and business cases, but MSFT is still growing significantly in this area. So in summary, MSFT is a lot more than just Windows on desktop PCs and mobile phones.

    I love Apple products, but the issue they have is that almost all of their revenue and profits are coming from consumer devices sold to individuals. Individuals can change products much much easier than enterprises. So the competitive advantage seems strong, but it is not so durable.
    Apr 15 03:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft - Growing Strength In The Enterprise Is Where The Real Value Is [View article]
    Your comments are focusing only on the PC market. How about the business applications that I speak of in the article? How about the enterprise server market, storage, databases, cloud computing with azure, etc... not to mention all of the services that go with this. You are focusing too much on phones and tablets and desktop PCs. Microsoft is much more than that within the enterprise, which is what I am getting at with this article.
    Apr 9 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft - Growing Strength In The Enterprise Is Where The Real Value Is [View article]
    i dont personally believe too much in market timing, so im not dumping anything, tech or others "waiting for a market correction". I look objectively at company fundamentals, moat and margin of safety and then make my bets that way. For me, major enterprise software upgrades and transformations is a long term continuous cycle. desktop upgrades continue, OS upgrades continue, but also do huge investments in newer technologies such as transitioning to the cloud where possible.
    Apr 9 07:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft - Growing Strength In The Enterprise Is Where The Real Value Is [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Yeah i agree one big issue is the "disliking" in general of the stock, it's gotten boring, etc. I don't view Ballmer as the problem at all, the company has been run better than most perceive in the past decade, however perception is a very hard thing to change. I also considered an angle that if you could break up the parts of the company, namely take out the enterprise focused divisions I've highlighted it could unlock some big time value. On the other hand that is not easy to do in practice, because they are also heavily intertwined with Windows and I don't currently see it as very realistic. Ironically some positive traction on phones, tablets, or even the new Xbox, all relatively small impact items on the bottom line (unless they have the next iPhone, which is unlikely in the near term...), these items could change the general perception of the company, and inherently unlock the value that already is there in the rest of the business.
    Apr 9 05:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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