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Matthew Green

 
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Another debt ceiling raise, another round of KCR - kicking the can down the road. You could say this is KCR6, with 6 raises since 2006. That's one per year. It is amazing how few news stories have noted the frequency at which this has happened. Yes, we had to shore up the banks, yes, we had to get the economy going again, of course. This debt ceiling raise was even able to be delayed because tax receipts were more better than expected, but we can't do this forever. Wow, if only they had QE's every year, I wonder where the S&P 500 would be at now...

    I wonder what Obama is really thinking when he describes a failure to raise the debt ceiling as "unthinkable," as he did last month. "The buck stops here" takes on a whole new meaning, apologies to Harry Truman.

    www.blufftontoday.com/...
    Feb 22 08:51 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Up 100%! So What?! [View article]
    Inflation always comes last, it has in the past and it will this time. 19th century, 20th century, 21st. The year it comes under control is the time to pick the best of the best and then hold.
    Feb 20 02:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They know it's coming but they can't help themselves. The number of investors fearing a catastrophic crash is rising even as they pile back into stocks. "They aren't so much expecting one as hoping for one," Josh Brown says, "so they can rationalize buying into a market that's left them behind."  [View news story]
    Azerbaijan, try the floor of the NYSE. As long as technology continues to evolve ahead of the exchange's controls the flash crash of last year could only be a preview of what could happen someday in the near future.
    Feb 20 02:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They know it's coming but they can't help themselves. The number of investors fearing a catastrophic crash is rising even as they pile back into stocks. "They aren't so much expecting one as hoping for one," Josh Brown says, "so they can rationalize buying into a market that's left them behind."  [View news story]
    History repeats itself. I guess 1999 is coming less than three years after 1929. I'll be content to wait a little longer for a correction. Besides, why investors are so concerned with this bewilders me. The market will be numerically higher in 5 years but how much will the typical investors holdings be worth in USD?
    Feb 20 02:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priced in Gold, Stocks Continue to Struggle [View article]
    The Dow:Gold ratio hit a low of about 1 in 1980 and I'll consider buying stocks once again when the ratio is below 2, or in that range. Of course, that would mean the Dow would have to fall to 10,000 or below and/or Gold would have to rise to 5000 or above, but the point is that neither is close to parity with the other, not yet. What I have a hard time seeing is that ratio falling below 1, but the Dow fell below 7000 no more than two years ago so it's not impossible that the ratio could stall in the 2 range.
    Feb 20 01:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time for 'Plan B' on Silver [View article]
    Duru, I was also expecting a drop to the 200-dma, just as happened in the pullbacks in 2004, 2006, and 2008, the latter going much further below as we all know. The lack of such a pullback can only mean that the old patterns no longer apply because, as you mentioned, another stage of the bull has set in. From here on out it's buy the dips. I like a few others made a few points off of ZSL in January but the first week of this month just managed to get out of that position ahead. I also learned something in that experience, during a secular bull use the negative ETF's, ZSL in the case of Silver, to limit losses on the dips, then use that extra cash to increase the long positions on the upside. Then repeat.
    Feb 20 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I forget exactly where I read those statistics, but I think it meant that on a typical day, 20% of MCD's customers are those who come in at least 3.5 times a week, on average. Assuming they spend the same as any other customer, that would only be 20% of their business day in and day out, so I doubt the rule applies, but who knows. Sad facts nevertheless.
    Feb 18 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    No need to justify sarcasm here. Companies do this all the time. McDonald's supposedly refers to its customers who come in at least 1-2 times a week as "heavy users," not kidding. AND those who eat there, on average more than 3-4 times a week are the "super heavy users," the latter category alone comprises is more than 20% of its customer base. Go figure.
    Feb 17 10:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    With Family Dollar, it appears that Peltz is (smartly) betting on average household remaining stagnant for quite awhile. That and the cash flow plus the numerous properties he could potentially sell for underperforming locations. With less market saturation this time around, this one will likely turn out better than Wendy's/Arby's, which wasn't as bad of a deal as many have made it out to be.
    Feb 17 09:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    They call them overqualified so as to temper their expectations, because then they overwork and underpay them...every SEC Chairman in recent memory has listed increasing retention one of their primary goals, but the revolving door just turns faster every year.
    Feb 17 09:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could the Dow Hit 4,500? [View article]
    Buying stocks on a large scale will be the most attractive when the Dow/Gold ratio falls below 2. It's a simple part of the historic economic cycle. The ratio fell below 1 in 1895, 1932, and again in 1980. If you bought at those times, even with interim events (Panic of 1907, 1987 Black Monday, etc) these times were at the relative bottoms and if you held for a couple decades you did really well. If the market stays tepid during the current commodities bull we'll see it again, although it may not get as low as 1 unless there is a major parabolic spike in Gold, which there very well may be at the end of its bull cycle.
    Feb 12 02:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook and Groupon Valuations: Party Like It's 2000 [View article]
    How ironic that Howard Schultz himself is on Groupon's board as of yesterday.
    Feb 11 02:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Wrong on Gold, Again [View article]
    Agree. I think back in August his view was influenced by the pervasive sense that a double-dip was imminent, and that would collapse the industrial demand for Ag. Still, even if that aspect of demand did go down I don't see how he could ignore the rising investment demand for Ag, and also how if he is bullish on Au then Ag should outperform Au on the way up.
    Feb 7 12:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Wrong on Gold, Again [View article]
    Back in August, right before the PM's began to march upward Cramer said he wanted nothing to do with Silver because of the industrial aspect, yet he really liked Gold. I see the principle of that way of thinking on the surface but you really have to wonder if he really, deeply knew what he was talking about.

    I have learned a lot of helpful things from him over the years, but my Cramer filter gets modified every month or so. That statement added another layer and a half to it.
    Feb 7 11:14 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fond of saying China is more capitalist than California, Jim Rogers can point to a new poll saying the same thing about France. While just 3% of Chinese say the market system is working poorly, 33% of the French think it's time to abandon capitalism.  [View news story]
    Are the French really capitalists to begin with? At least in the American sense of the word? It doesn't matter if this news story is from 2011, 1961, 1945 or even 1789, for that matter.
    Jan 26 09:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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