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Matthew Green  

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  • Is Silver Getting Overbought vs. Gold? [View article]
    The ratio will eventually fall below 40, but I would be very surprised if it does in the next year. It would require another significant upleg in Silver, continuing the three-month old spike which on a technical analysis basis is showing signs of strain. After another 12-18 months or so of consolidation, another short-term march forward, akin to early 2006, early 2008 or the last three months could shatter the 40 level and take the ratio far below that range. Such price movement is more or less typical of silver this past decade, a series of short, sharp spikes and long, boring consolidations.
    Dec 12, 2010. 12:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is TV Signaling a Top in Gold? [View article]
    Back down to, maybe slightly below, the 200 DMA in the $23-$25 range, either way thats where I'm buying more. Barring another global credit crisis, it is unlikely the price will be pushed very far below $20.
    Dec 9, 2010. 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Head and Shoulders Pattern in Gold? [View article]
    There would be a head and shoulders forming in Silver, but due to the declining GS ratio since the peak the right shoulder is higher than the left. The formation in Gold looks textbook, but just like bubbles these things are only definitively recognized in hindsight. If Silver has one or two days where it falls 1-2% in a row, that might break the camel's back for this recent run-up.

    Technicals are only one part of the equation, though. Technicals are overextended now for the metals, sure, but bubbles have no concept of technical analysis. Just look at the Nasdaq 10 years ago. This is a secular bull market, so the price of both metals will eventually be much higher, but a correction now would be less painful than a correction later. When the final runup comes, technicals should be selectively used. Anyone remember in April/May 2000 when the initial selloff in the Nasdaq was labeled a correction by technical analysts, nearly across the board? It wasn't until that fall and a slew disappointing earnings that reality set in.
    Nov 30, 2010. 10:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Head and Shoulders Pattern in Gold? [View article]
    Nothing wrong with picking up a little more at $80 in that case. For Gold, nothing wrong with picking up more at $1350, $1300, even $1250 if it corrects that far. This is like the Dow in the 1980's, people are slowly accumulating cycle after cycle. Might have a correction or two, but until fiat is fixed there is no better alternative. At the rate the world is going, that process could take more than a decade.
    Nov 28, 2010. 01:27 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Wait, I thought there was a pot of gold somewhere on that island...

    Really though, it's all within the realm of the Euro. Ireland bailed out Greece indirectly, Greece is now bailing out Ireland, Spain and Portugal will be next to bail out each other. Wait until this starts happening amongst US states.
    Nov 22, 2010. 12:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Rates Should Alarm Investors [View article]
    I was surprised that China did not announce another rate rise Friday, although they did take another measure to tighten the money supply. This all but guarantees a rate rise the next time they announce on Dec. 19th or 20th.

    I'm overwhelmingly long gold and silver for the long-term but there could be a much-needed correction soon. Whether this is seen this next week if Gold and Silver don't take out their highs, or is seen after a rate rise or two is to be determined. Nothing goes straight up, nothing comes straight down.
    Nov 22, 2010. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: The Best, Worst and Likely Scenarios [View article]
    Silver is up big today premarket but I'm seeing a potential head and shoulders formation in the Gold chart. Silver's chart looks different bc the ratio has increased since late October, the right side on the descent settling higher than the left, but it's something investors should look out for. If Silver doesn't get back above $27-28, the second phase of the correction could be just as sharp as the first.
    Nov 18, 2010. 08:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beatles Invade Apple [View article]
    A win for both sides. Even in 2009, the Beatles sold the third-highest number of albums worldwide. Obviously, it was in CD's, but if that is not a testament to their staying power I don't know what is.

    What a lot of people forgot through all of this is that Steve Jobs is a huge fan of the group, periodically referring to his inspiration throughout his career.
    Nov 16, 2010. 11:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Fate Worse Than the Cover of Time Magazine [View article]
    Anyone remember this? I think he has a point. Time has one of the better track records of documenting bubbles throughout the 20th century and on into this one.

    Time, June 2005

    Sept. 2010.

    Take the upcoming opportunity to buy the dip. Right now we're seeing a pullback in Silver. That is healthy for the longer-term bull market in the metal. Gold should do the same, although IMO the Gold Silver ratio has overextended a little to the downside, looking for it to correct back into the upper-50's before resuming a downward trend. Given the fundamentals, I don't quite equate a dip down to $22 and $1200 in the respective metals to, say, Dallas's "Pam dream" season of 1986 or Don Knotts departing the Andy Griffith show.
    Nov 16, 2010. 09:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermission on the Stage of World Finance [View article]
    Your observations at the Opal conference are spot-on and are well alluded to in throughout the article. The Big Three automakers mutually agreed with the UAW over the course of four decades, both sides using optimistic projections even as the market share of GM, for example, plunged under 30% by the beginning of this decade. They assumed market share was a constant, in perpetuity. The words "in perpetuity," whether in contracts or in projected returns, have come back to haunt both individual investors and America's institutions. The promises of Social Security payments assumed that the number of workers tossing into the pot was assumed to grow in perpetuity. With respect to the housing bubble, house prices hadn't gone down more than two years in a row since WWII, so they were going up in perpetuity, right? Humans by nature don't like change, most of all lifestyle changes. But the assumption that the American lifestyle, at least how good it had gotten by the late 20th century, was sustainable in perpetuity for every hard working citizen is false. History has shown that time after time with nations and societies on every corner of the globe.
    Nov 14, 2010. 02:56 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Silver Trust ETF's Silver Stockpile Not Keeping Pace With Gains [View article]
    Update as of this morning:

    Nov 10, 2010. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That's a Parabolic Move - Silver and Gold Get Tipsy [View article]
    A correction now is healthy for the longer-term bull anyway. The bull market has yet to run its course, I'm just reaffirming that corrections are a necessary part of any bull market. Despite the QEII announcement, the price action of the past week has left Silver overextended. For those who must have a trade on, ZSL might not be a bad bet for the next week or fortnight. Make no mistake about it, though, the double-short ETF's aren't for beginners, they can turn against you very quickly.
    Nov 10, 2010. 09:28 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Overbought [View article]
    The CME rule change today is eerily similar to what they did to the Hunts in 1980, they changed the rules on them and set them up for an immediate, catastrophic fall. That's not going to happen this time. This bull market is far from over, but in the meantime I think Bespoke had a point when they said it was due for a correction. Maybe they weren't right after 24 hours, but 48 hours later they turn out to be spot-on.

    Relax everyone. So we have a correction to the low or mid-20's, buy the dip. As I see it, this bull market won't be over until the Gold/Silver ratio is at least 20 points lower and/or the Dow/Gold ratio is at 1-3.
    Nov 9, 2010. 06:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things have gone pretty well for silver longs since Bernanke spoke in Jackson Hole - now the metal's gone "not parabolic, but asymptotic," up 5.6% to $29. Other metals: Gold +1.4%, copper +2.1%, platinum +1.8%, palladium +4.1%.  [View news story]
    Not with the breather after this CME Group rule. Remember what happened the last time they changed the rules like this? It was designed to take down the Hunt Brothers in 1980. It did. This time we're looking at a correction, would be healthy in the short and long term.
    Nov 9, 2010. 05:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Silver Trust ETF's Silver Stockpile Not Keeping Pace With Gains [View article]
    I think the recent movement of SLV is more reflective of the price of Silver getting a bit ahead of itself, regardless of any short squeeze, etc. Besides, look at the action in early 2008. If iShares is doing a bad job keeping up now, they were doing horrendously back then. SLV had a price of $20, and a little more than 50% of the Silver that the fund holds today.

    I don't think that right now, late 2010, is bearing witness to the end of the bull market. The late action today after 1 o'clock strongly suggests we are in the process of correcting down to the low 20's, healthy for the long-term. We had a short correction in late October, this shouldn't be too different. Of course, any Fed announcement could immediately change all that. All things considered, even with QEII the metals can't go up everyday.
    Nov 9, 2010. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment