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Matthew Lewis  

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  • Emerald Oil +60% after nixing offering, but Wunderlich reiterates Sell [View news story]
    It's tanking....
    May 27, 2015. 09:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    Have you studied all the debt covenants? Many senior facilities don't allow repurchasing of debt.
    May 27, 2015. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    It's also likely your electric company locked in prices for natural gas and other fuel a long time ago. Additionally costs like pipeline transport fees are locked in for 10-20 years.
    May 26, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil will not proceed with stock offering after all, shares +40% AH [View news story]
    What a circus.
    May 26, 2015. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    The entire industry is a mess. ACI, ANR, BTU, and WLT took on an ungodly amount of debt in 2011 with some of the worst timed (peak cycle) acquisitions in history. Now the industry can't consolidate because no one is willing or able to take on these company's debt. So we get 4 zombie companies that continue to operate and not meaningfully cut production. The industry needs several of them to be liquidated to recover, in my opinion.

    CLD and ARLP are worth a shot if you want to go long.
    May 26, 2015. 04:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil stock offering still on but for reduced amount [View news story]
    Are these guys just throwing shares up on the market through their "at the market facility"????
    May 26, 2015. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal In Talks With Restructuring Advisers To Reduce Its Debt [View article]
    I don't know if I'd assume these guys will wait till 2018 to file BK (if though they clearly can if they want to). They contract out their coal 12-18 months ahead of time and most companies want a bunch of cash on hand so they don't have to pay the punitive DIP financing rates. If coal prices are still in the tank by late 2016 I'd be surprised if they don't file.
    May 26, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Arch Coal taps restructuring advisers amid debt [View news story]
    They may not be able to buyback debt due to debt covenants which do not allow it.
    May 22, 2015. 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil to launch $150M offering [View news story]
    Was this thing really down 35% today? Incredible.....
    May 21, 2015. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerald Oil to launch $150M offering [View news story]
    These guys are hilarious!
    May 18, 2015. 07:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy beats by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    You're ignoring the cyclicality of the coal market and assuming prices will forever stay depressed?

    Even a declining U.S. Business like coal isn't immune to the laws of economics. The simple fact is no one is investing in new mines at these prices (and even higher prices) and a significant amount of capacity will come offline as low prices persist. In high fixed costs businesses like coal mining this takes awhile, but several of the biggest players have their backs against the wall with creditors and have no way to repay loans due 2017-2018...
    May 1, 2015. 09:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy beats by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Really good quarter considering the market conditions. Management is earning their pay.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: Needs A 20%+ Increase In Metallurgical Coal By 2017 [View article]
    Agree with J. BTU won't go bankrupt. They have too many good assets they could sell if they get really desperate.

    CLD will also survive.
    Apr 30, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Any Newcastle Rebound Should Significantly Improve Its Outlook [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Good analysis.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Falling Oil Prices Are A Boon To Production Costs And Railway Availability [View article]
    Per CLD 10K they only get 60-75% of Newcastle prices overseas....
    Mar 27, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
397 Comments
507 Likes