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Matthew Lewis

 
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  • Cloud Peak Energy: Falling Oil Prices Are A Boon To Production Costs And Railway Availability [View article]
    Lower oil saves CLD significant money on diesel (a large portion of their variable cost structure).

    Explain fundamentally how lower oil prices hurts them. Very few power plants (around 3%) run on oil, so it doesn't directly compete with thermal coal.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Falling Oil Prices Are A Boon To Production Costs And Railway Availability [View article]
    I like how you know the future prices of Newcastle coal. You must have an awesome crystal ball.
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another day of pain for energy stocks [View news story]
    Oil can go lower. Oil can stay depressed for an extended period of time. If this happens both BP and Shell will almost certainly drift lower.

    How long until these company's stock prices come back? 1 year? 10 years? Commodity down cycles can be vicious and last an extended period of time. I wouldn't throw around terms like "no brainer" with stocks that are highly dependent on a single commodity.

    Best of luck.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another day of pain for energy stocks [View news story]
    Some said there was blood in the streets $20 higher on crude.

    It scares me that so many folks think this is no brainer buying opportunity.....
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy: Falling Oil Prices Are A Boon To Production Costs And Railway Availability [View article]
    Great article. Thanks for the research.

    Just to add color to the diesel hedging - CLD has a floor of $70 WTI through Q3 2015, so unfortunately no benefit below that until later in the year.

    Long CLD.
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What else can go wrong for Seadrill? Plenty, it seems [View news story]
    Loews and DO were almost certainly buying DO shares today.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sturm, Ruger & Co.: Great Management, But Faces Some Competitive Risk [View article]
    Long.
    Dec 6, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sturm, Ruger & Co.: Great Management, But Faces Some Competitive Risk [View article]
    Really a fantastic write up on RGR. Well researched and clearly articulated. One of the best I've read on SA.

    I'll probably initiate a small position at these levels.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers Are Toxic And I Love It [View article]
    Agree for the most part, although I could see this being a more prolonged down cycle than normal.

    I'm long DO at $36 and SDRL 2017 leaps. Best of luck.
    Nov 27, 2014. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean beats by $0.13, beats on revenue [View news story]
    2.6 billion dollar write down. Woof.
    Nov 10, 2014. 06:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Drilling: Thoughts From Q3 2014 Earnings And Future Outlook [View article]
    I enjoy these updates. Please keep them coming.

    Long DO common and SDRL leap calls.
    Nov 5, 2014. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Drilling: Thoughts From Q3 2014 Earnings And Future Outlook [View article]
    $4 billion in enterprise value for PACD would probably be more than DO would want to bite off. They would probably have to offer close to $4.5 billion (including debt). They might take one of the new builds under construction off their hands though.....
    Oct 28, 2014. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Update: Beginning Of The End For Chapter 11 Process [View article]
    This isn't immaterial.

    If the furnaces are sold for a billion dollars and Apple gets 80%, that leaves $200 million for GTAT. If they are sold at $400 million, GTAT gets $80 million. That's a big difference.

    Where is this $500k per furnace number coming from?
    Oct 23, 2014. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Update: Beginning Of The End For Chapter 11 Process [View article]
    The furnaces at Mesa are worth a billion dollars? That figure can't be right, can it? The facility cost less than 500 million, didn't it?
    Oct 23, 2014. 07:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM to make 'major announcement,' release earnings Monday morning [View news story]
    Large acquisition?
    Oct 19, 2014. 06:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
355 Comments
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