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Matthew Lewis  

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  • Pacific Drilling: Fleet Status As Of July 22 With Commentary On The Recent Presentation [View article]
    You feel the rigs are worth more than the debt? The market disagrees, that's why the debt trades at a discount and the stock is essentially worthless. The market is telling you the rigs are worth significantly less than the debt in today's market.

    If the rigs were worth more than the debt there would be other drillers trying to buy them out left and right. Why aren't they?
    Jul 25, 2015. 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling: Fleet Status As Of July 22 With Commentary On The Recent Presentation [View article]
    VTG debt is way more than their rigs are worth in today's market. Nobody is going to touch those guys until they go bankrupt.

    PACD on the other hand might get some suitors....

    Your comment on DO being too conservative is interesting. They picked up two modern rigs in the 2009 crash that have probably paid for themselves twice by now.

    I think DO goes after specific new rigs coming out of the shipyard with no contract rather than an entire company. Just like they did in 2009.
    Jul 25, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    Also your capex is probably a bit high on the cash flow side. $20 million of this years capex was a one-off to move a drag line. In 2014 they only spent $20 million, but noted that was abnormally low.

    $30-$40 million is probably a good range going forward.
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    You're not factoring in their export business which will almost certainly lose money next year. They need about $75 Newcastle prices to break even there. Current prices are around $60.

    Your analysis should separate the export business from domestic.
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    If I had a crystal ball I would certainly tell you...I don't unfortunately or I wouldn't have a cost average of $8 for CLD :).

    There are several factors here that will affect PRB demand. Weather, Natural Gas Prices, and supply reduction from other PRB producers.

    1. I have no clue how hot the summer will be or how cold the winter will be.
    2. I believe natural gas prices are unsustainably low at these levels. Drilling has decreased dramatically and huge exports are coming online. A rise in natural gas prices will certainly lead to higher coal prices as those are competing fuels.
    3. Coal producers that go under will cut some production in my opinion. ANR's PRB mines (Belle Ayr and Eagle Butte) simply aren't profitable at these levels. Peabody and Kewuit have 8400 BTU mines that could also see dramatic cuts.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    What did I say that wasn't true?

    You are saying they don't book their sales 12-16 months in advance? They have a small amount of coal (10% or so) that is tied to spot prices. The rest is booked out along the forward curve.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    Real time prices here....contracts and prices are locked in 12-16 months in advance so look out into 2016. CLD gets a premium for their 8800 and 9300 coal too.

    http://bit.ly/1JxXHI3
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    Yes. Higher natural gas prices = switching to cheaper coal.
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Irrational Bear Pricing, Shares Worth $12-Plus [View article]
    There is going to be a lot of pain in store for some of these E&P guys if NGL prices stay low. Most of these guys NGL hedges fall off at the end of 2015 and you'll see significantly lower rig counts.

    Additionally, exports facilities start coming on this year. Cheniere alone will be exporting 10% of current US gas production from their trains at Sabine and Corpus Christi. Nice article by RBN here:
    http://bit.ly/1g3FJpW

    Natural gas prices under $3 were able to persist because NGL prices were high (and oil). Those days may be coming to an end.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: How To Make Nearly $2 Billion In Liquidity Disappear [View article]
    "Someone who is convinced that anticipated collapse of the federal reserve notes is worth using to buy this bankrupt company and hold it until demand growth beyond a resistible point and a new currency which posses real money replaces the federal reserve notes."

    LOL...head back to your bunker with your gold bars brah.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: How To Make Nearly $2 Billion In Liquidity Disappear [View article]
    Agree. Nobody wants to deal with the reclamation costs.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: How To Make Nearly $2 Billion In Liquidity Disappear [View article]
    Bently,

    Can you provide a legal opinion (from a judge) or statute that states management has a "fiduciary duty" to the corporate assets over the shareholders?
    Jul 20, 2015. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: How To Make Nearly $2 Billion In Liquidity Disappear [View article]
    I have no dog in this fight, but how can you possibly say going bankrupt before a covenant breach coupled with the common shareholders getting NOTHING is "fiduciary duty"?

    Per the ruling posted above it seems there is no way they could declare Chapter 11, give the shareholders nothing, and not be in violation of the ruling posted above.

    Please justify your position.
    Jul 20, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Take or pay is spread over many years and includes domestic stuff too.
    Jul 19, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Makes sense thinking of it that way. Thanks.
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
477 Comments
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