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Matthew Lewis  

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  • Peabody Energy touches all-time low, but Sterne Agee still says Buy [View news story]
    The action today was insane. Shorts were ruthless with BTU (who can blame them?)...somehow CLD even got thrown into the mix.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural subsidiary takes 50% stake in Marcellus Shale JV [View news story]
    Bankrupting the coal piece and splitting off the NG piece into a new company? I'd still expect the current shareholders to get nothing in this scenario....
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Supreme Court And Coal [View article]
    LNG has 20 year firm contracts already in place....
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Supreme Court And Coal [View article]
    The market already knows WLT is going bankrupt. Also it's pricing in about a 95% chance on ANR and ACI (look at the current bond prices).

    I wouldn't expect to see much movement from any of these guys on a WLT filing...
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: Measuring The Positives Against The Negatives [View article]
    Those mines will continue to operate even in bankruptcy as they are all almost certainly all cash flow positive...Wyoming knows this. The Central App and Met mines will likely be the ones shutting down.

    Wyoming isn't putting much at risk by not allowing these guys to self bond.
    Jun 27, 2015. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Miners Under Pressure: Putting It All Together [View article]
    Yea...I'd love to take a position in the bonds here but there is literally no volume on those converts the past few days with sell offers under 50 cents. I can't believe they wouldn't be buying them here if they intended on paying them in August.

    Who knows what is going on....
    Jun 27, 2015. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: Measuring The Positives Against The Negatives [View article]
    The self bonding issue in Wyoming could be a reason. Nobody is going to bond them at this point which means they would have to put up $400 million.
    Jun 27, 2015. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal Miners Under Pressure: Putting It All Together [View article]
    It's pretty scary that ANR isn't repurchasing their convertible that matures August 2015 and now trades at under 40 cents.

    Either they are incompetent and are going to pay out at par in August, or they plan on filing before maturity. My money says they are planning on filing.
    Jun 26, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources: Measuring The Positives Against The Negatives [View article]
    Bonds have fallen off a cliff the last week. Some trading at 6-7 cents. Basically pricing in bankruptcy in the next quarter or two.
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Drilling: Why Investors Should Brace For More Downside [View article]
    They don't have to replace 1-1. New rigs will have much bigger margins than the old ones....especially if you get them at a 20-30% discount.

    Also, I don't think anyone is saying DO will have the immediate earnings power it had in 2012....but the stock is also down over 50% from the highs. Price is everything....
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Drilling: Why Investors Should Brace For More Downside [View article]
    There are two sides of the age fleet situation....one is rarely talked about...

    The only reason DO isn't swimming in debt like many of their competitors is because they didn't lever up at the peak of the cycle to buy a bunch of 6th and 7th generation rigs. They are prudent with their balance sheet and buy distressed assets at the bottom of the cycle (like they will in the next 12-24 months). They squeeze every dollar of earnings out of their old rigs too...something shareholders should celebrate and not vilify. Those old tired assets made DO shareholders a pile of money during the last 5 years...and cost a fraction of the price of a new rig.

    They will be able to go out and buy new fancy rigs at a discount now. And that's why their share price carries a premium.
    Jun 23, 2015. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    There's a couple more smaller ones actually. USEG and GLUX. Small but technically publicly traded.
    Jun 18, 2015. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Wouldn't it be funny if some of these guys who fleeced WLT, ANR, ACI, and BTU back in 2011 came back in and bought the assets at pennies what they sold them for 4 years ago?
    Jun 16, 2015. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Who are the big coal players with money?
    Jun 16, 2015. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Yep. $40 million a year in a capex and $40 million a year in interest keeps them cash flow neutral at $80 million EBITDA. They guided for $110-$150 this year.

    Like I said in my earlier post, it's hard for my model to get to prices that actually have them burning a significant amount of cash.

    They have a floor on Newcastle because if prices go much lower they will just eat the take or pay and not ship the coal. So the downside is limited for the international stuff. PRB prices are weak, but they still have a spread of well over $1 at current prices.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
431 Comments
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