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Matthew Lewis

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  • Micron Earnings Preview: Estimate Revisions Positive With 8% FCF Yield [View article]
    Selling short has the same effect as selling their own shares. Makes no sense.
    Mar 27 08:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore: This A-Rated, High-Yielding Driller Will Shine Again [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Great research, I like the company a lot too. Keeping an eye on the low 40's as an entry point.
    Mar 12 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Not Too Long Until We See $30? [View article]
    I know very little about MU specifically.

    However, every MU focused SA article I read for the last 3 months is full of exuberant price targets ($30+ in a few months $40+ in a year) and earnings targets that are far above the estimates. These types of things make my contrarian radar go wild.

    Best of luck long or short.
    Mar 10 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Not Too Long Until We See $30? [View article]
    Yeesh. Everyone on this site acts like MU to $30 in months is a slam dunk.

    There are no sure things in investing fellas. Tread carefully.
    Mar 10 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    They have 3 ultra deep water rigs being delivered in each of the next 3 quarters. None are contracted out. I have no doubt they will be, but at what day rate? Diamond couldn't even get $500k a day on their new ultra deepwaters. Are SDRL's the same type of rig? I honestly don't know.

    The point remains. There has been pricing pressure recently for day rates on ultra deep water rigs. I don't have a crystal ball, but given the number coming online from competitors into 2015, analysts believe day rates can go even lower.

    A blanket statement like "Diamond has an older fleet so you shouldn't worry about day rates" is frankly just poor analysis. The concern is absolutely on the recent contracts on new deep water rigs.
    Feb 17 07:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    Good find duck.

    A one-time gain of 1.2 billion dollars is included in the analysis.

    Can the author comment on this inclusion of a one-time gain?
    Feb 17 06:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    Hold on.

    The concern over day rates is coming from the NEW (not even delivered yet) ultra deep water rigs that Diamond Offshore has recently contracted out, not their older ones. Have you read the rig status reports for all the competitors? The analysts certainly have, and that is where the concern is.

    Seadrill has 8 new ultra deep water rigs coming. Only 1 of these is currently contracted out. What rates do you believe they will get on the other 7? Will they be better than DO got? If so, why?
    Feb 17 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Obama's 'MyRA' Plan Will Impact The U.S. Economy [View article]
    I enjoyed your article. A comment...
    More demand for treasuries lowers cost of borrowing for the government...however lower rates also bring lower demand from other institutions, investors, and foreign countries. The obvious effect here is the cost of borrowing may not move down like you stated. It also effectively shifts treasury holdings from investors that can be taxed to investors that cannot. This leads to less money for the US government in the form of taxes.

    Are you sure the pros outweigh the cons here? There are lots of moving parts of this that weren't mentioned.
    Jan 30 07:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    8866171 - I've thought about doing this, but have not done adequate research on the cost or the ability to borrow to short ETF's like this. My first thought is the puts would correctly price in the effect of beta slippage/contract roll loss. However shorting may be a profitable option.
    Jan 30 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    COBeeMan...I'll have to look into it. I've been swamped with work. I'll look at professor Brofman's work. Thanks.
    Jan 30 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • L Brands - Things Just Got Cheap [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I'd love to buy some in the low-mid 40's although we may never get that low. Great company with a fantastic moat due to Victoria Secret brand loyalty.
    Jan 29 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    These 3X ETF's CAN be effective tools. However, holding for months on end will absolutely kill your returns, especially if there is significant volatility of the underlying assets. For those that don't understand how beta slippage affects returns, an SA writer previously used a great example.

    To understand what is beta-slippage, imagine a very volatile asset that goes up 25% one day and down 20% the day after. A perfect triple leveraged ETF goes up 75% the first day and down 60% the second day. On the close of the second day, the underlying asset is back to its initial price:

    (1 + 0.25) x (1 - 0.2) = 1

    And the perfect leveraged ETF ?

    (1 + 0.75) x (1 - 0.6) = 0.7

    Nothing has changed for the underlying asset, and 30% of your money has disappeared if you are long.
    Jan 28 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    I'm not long or short. No dog in this fight.

    Just stating the facts. You're putting yourself at a significant disadvantage by holding an inverse 3x etf long term. You'll need a significant price decline just to make up for the beta slippage.
    Jan 27 02:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    No investor should be holding these 3x ETFs longer than a day. You're exposing yourself to significant risk of beta slippage and you will almost certainly lose money long term.
    Jan 26 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    You're using a 3x inverse ETF. You could easily go broke before the market corrects.
    Jan 26 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
314 Comments
298 Likes