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Matthew Lewis

 
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  • 5 Stocks With Yields Over 10% Going Ex-Dividend Next Week [View article]
    Hugoton Royalty Trust is a trust, not a company. Also, you quote their dividend payout using last years numbers. The distributions are far lower now and at current distributions (which are also high because they lag the gas market by 2-3 months) they yield 6%.
    Apr 23 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Covered my short position for about a 14% gain after paying dividends. Looks to me like a big holder is liquidating their position today, and I wanted to take advantage. I still think it goes lower, but the easy money has been made here. Good luck to those staying short or going long.
    Apr 23 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    SJT has taken an absolute bath this week....somebody is expecting Friday's distribution to be horrible.
    Apr 19 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Good day for the shorts. We'll see what Friday's distribution brings.
    Apr 16 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: How A Retail Superpower Could Fall This Decade [View article]
    Online buying is a problem for retailers like Best Buy...its more of a nuisance for a retailer like Wal-Mart. The vast majority of things sold at Wal-Mart are not economical (from a time or value standpoint) to buy online. Sure, their electronics department will take a hit, but I don't see myself buying apples, toothpaste, or fresh meat online anytime soon.
    Apr 11 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Just like I wrote in the article there is going to be some noise in some months due to costs/revenue I can't account for. The distribution was helped by a $405,000 benefit in audit exceptions, which is a one time deal. Without that the distribution would have been about $.075 a unit, a 31% decline from the prior month. Even if you assume stable prices from here (they have actually dropped more), you are only getting a 4.5% yield on a depleting source. The price of SJT is not sustainable at that yield.

    I do appreciate your posts batman, even though you clearly are gleeful every month my model is off :). But cut me some slack on the timing of my call here. My estimates may just be a month or so off. We will see what April announcement brings. I expect another significant drop in distribution.
    Mar 20 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    And I'll be right here to admit I was wrong, if that should happen. I'm not like many of the authors on this site and will run away from my work. My model has clearly been wrong so far, and it probably is due to a big premium SJT is getting from liquids. However, I still believe the vast majority of their revenue comes from dry gas, and in the medium to long term I don't believe the liquids can make up for the 50% drop in dry gas prices in the last 6 months. We'll see tomorrow where the next distribution is. I fully expect my model prediction to be off based off the price they got last month, but I don't believe you will see average gas prices of $4.49 per MCF like you did for last months distribution.
    Mar 19 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    My model has clearly been wrong so far....my short position has not. I'm basically flat on it. I'm waiting this out until the next distribution is announced.....
    Mar 16 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Miss Creates Opportunity In True Religion [View article]
    Very good article. Well written and researched.
    Feb 24 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    For those still reading. Here is the link batman is talking about.

    http://bit.ly/zEmw3s

    I had missed this in my initial research. I must admit I'm not sure what it means. They assume a $4.10 MMbtu gas price which is right around the spot price during March 2011, yet give a price adjustment that seems to me like they are factoring in a premium on some properties.

    I'm going to let this play out another month and see what the next distribution is. If they are still able to get over $4, I will have to close my short and reaccess.
    Feb 21 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    You'll have to tell me where in the 10K SJT says they expect to make that much of a premium over the spot. I read the 10K and 10Q's before writing this article and don't recall seeing that.

    Also, I will tell you that the first half of the year they were getting right around spot prices. For the last 6 months the premium has been 10-20% depending on the month. I'm still not sure how to account for this difference.
    Feb 21 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Again. Per the 10-Q in November 2011. For the 3 months ended Sept 30th -
    Proceeds from gas sales - $42,210,000
    Proceeds from oil/liquids - $1,248,000

    Anything they get from oil/gas is so inconsequential they don't even report it on the monthly distribution.
    Feb 17 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    I'm not aware of any tax implications in shorting the stock. Obviously being long you have depletion to figure in.

    HGT (another natural gas royalty trust) also saw little to know drop in prices month over month. Interesting.
    Feb 17 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    In Q3 2011 3% of their revenue came from liquids/oil. The gas they are selling needs processing just like any of the stuff sold at that hub, so I don't think quality affects price too much. I'm open to theories though....
    Feb 17 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    I'm extremely curious on how they are getting $4.49 per MCF when the average posted price at the San Juan hub for December was $3.17. I'll do some more research and see what I can find, but it may be that they have locked in selling prices somewhere along the way.
    Feb 17 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
317 Comments
323 Likes