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Matthew Lewis

 
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  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Seedream - Thanks for the comment. If you figure in the time value of money then the present value is worth a lot less than $3.60 assuming a $.03/month distribution. I honestly don't believe $2.50 natural gas is sustainable over the next decade, but over the next year, it could be. When SJT starts announcing distributions of $.03 I believe you will start seeing massive liquidation of SJT shares.
    Feb 10 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Thanks Augustus. There is a lot of confusion on these royalty trusts even among SA authors. I've seen several authors recommending buying these based off last years distributions, which is clearly misleading.
    Feb 3 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • San Juan Royalty Trust - Current Natural Gas Prices Will Slash Dividend [View article]
    Agree...and thanks for the comments and notes on the price history.
    Feb 3 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hugoton Royalty Trust: The Natural Gas Play I Like Best [View article]
    There's nothing wrong with thinking gas prices go higher. But its terribly misleading to potential investors to say that HGT has a dividend yield of 9.9%. That 9.9% was achieved with natural gas prices that were $4.50, which is 80% higher than spot prices today.
    Feb 2 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hugoton Royalty Trust: The Natural Gas Play I Like Best [View article]
    " HGT has a handsome dividend monthly dividend yield of 9.9%"

    What are you basing this yield off of? The January distribution was for gas sales in November when prices were 40% higher. Have you modeled what a 40% drop in gas prices does to the monthly distribution? $.08 in January could easily be $.02 in March.
    Feb 2 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Ways To Play The Natural Gas Decline - Part 1 [View article]
    My modeling shows at current prices SJT would kick off $.03 - .05 a month depending on production and hedging. That is a yield of 1.5 - 3%.
    Feb 1 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Ways To Play The Natural Gas Decline - Part 1 [View article]
    "At current prices, the royalty trust yields an estimated 7.2%"

    This is flat out not true and needs to be corrected immediately. You are using last years royalties (average natural gas prices of $4.50) to calculate the yield. Current prices are $2.52.
    Feb 1 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Corning: Confusion Creates Buying Opportunity For This Unloved Equity [View article]
    Sure I'm aware of money in and money out. I'm also aware I own stuff that depreciates in value over time and will eventually need to be replaced by my cash flow. You cite how Corning trades under book value (a metric that depends on a fair depreciation of their assets), but then you only want to judge their business segments only on the cash flow. Would you feel good about the company if they were borrowing $300 million a quarter toward toward a business unit which caused cash flow to be much higher? I wouldn't.

    Again...great article...just differences in opinion on concerns over those other business units.
    Feb 1 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Corning: Confusion Creates Buying Opportunity For This Unloved Equity [View article]
    Agree 100% on FCF. Investors need to look at the net income of the business segments for a company like GLW.
    Feb 1 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Corning: Confusion Creates Buying Opportunity For This Unloved Equity [View article]
    Very good article...and a good point Chess. Corning has been growing their revenue in their non display business segments for quite awhile and still can't turn much of a profit in these areas. As chess points out 90% of profits come from display. Corning is the low cost producer in the display arena, but if the market goes to hell Corning's profitability goes with it. I own some Corning, but it is not a huge position for me for this reason. They are completely reliant on their margins in the display industry. Good analysis and good luck.
    Jan 31 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: A Retail Stock for the Coming Decade [View article]
    Its still undervalued in my opinion. I'd love to buy more under $55. Kudos again on your analysis. I still sleep well at night with this being my largest position.
    Jan 29 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Cheap Natural Gas Assets With A High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Sure...but you really believe this is the bottom? These trusts haven't been cut nearly enough based off my modeling on natural gas prices. Last time distributions dropped to .02-.05 (which they will unless gas prices get back to $3.50 or so) SJT went to $14 a share.
    Jan 25 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Cheap Natural Gas Assets With A High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Also here.

    TER: Which seems to perform better in a strong commodity environment—MLPs or royalty trusts?

    KS: Very good question. The upstream MLPs typically have a much more stable cash-flow profile because they hedge a higher percentage of their production and have the ability to add on new hedges. Typically, the upstream MLP world is hedged four to five years out, whereas royalty trusts only have the ability to put on hedges at the very beginning of the trust. With no ability to add on new hedges, after four or five years trusts have a high level of commodity price exposure and are very sensitive to oil and gas prices. So in a rising commodity-price environment, royalty trusts will outperform upstream MLPs. But in a very stable price environment, we would expect MLPs to outperform.

    http://bit.ly/xwYqq5
    Jan 25 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Cheap Natural Gas Assets With A High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Did a little more research on it. Per this article SJT or the producer has no hedges. Looks like a reliable source.

    "San Juan Basin Royalty trust has no hedges in place to offset depressed natural gas prices. Accordingly, the trust’s quarterly distribution tends to fluctuate with natural gas prices."

    http://bit.ly/zxRmZd
    Jan 25 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Cheap Natural Gas Assets With A High Dividend Yield [View article]
    Thanks for the insight.
    Jan 24 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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