Seeking Alpha

Matthew Lewis

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Matthew Lewis' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Nokia (NOK) slashes the price of its flagship Lumia 900 phone by half in the U.S., barely a quarter after its introduction - though it's not clear whether Nokia or partner AT&T (T) will take the bigger hit. Quick price drops aren't unprecedented, but NOK (with market cap now down more than 95% from its tech-boom peak) is under scrutiny after a lackluster Lumia rollout.  [View news story]
    Apple does not drop prices 1 quarter into a product launch.
    Jul 15 07:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How JPMorgan Just Lost A Huge Source Of Profits, Now A Terrible Investment [View article]
    Interesting article...but I'm not sure I understand the conclusion.

    "First of all, these institutions are starved for revenue growth and are willing to take exceptional risks to achieve it. Second, they may now be forced to scale down risk-taking in response to JPMorgan's regulatory spotlight, further harming bottom lines."

    These two points directly contradict each other. Are they going to be able to take on more risk or not? Your article seems to indicate you detest the types of risk JPM and others take as being bad for shareholders, yet you state a forced decrease in risk taking will "hurt the bottom line".
    Jul 14 07:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning: A Cheap Stock That Is Likely To Get Cheaper [View article]
    You only risk going insolvent if you borrow money. Smart investors don't.
    Jul 12 10:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Buy Cheap Natural Gas Assets With A High Dividend Yield [View article]
    The dividend yields for HGT and SJT you cite in your article are preposterous based on the current prices on natural gas. Can I ask at how you calculated them? These are royalty trusts. They sell the gas they produce every month, subtract out expenses, and distribute the rest to unit holders. There is a two month lag in distribution vs sales, so the distribution announced Friday is actually for gas sales in November (when prices were above $4). Based off the current price of natural gas my current modeling shows monthly distributions of $.03 - $.04 for SJT, or a dividend yield of 2.1%.
    Jan 24 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total: Why I Am Still Bullish On This 5% Yielder [View article]
    Yes...a strong dollar may ding your dividend a bit, but it also helps strengthen the company. Most of Total's expenditures are in euros, and most of their revenue is in dollars. A strong dollar means less $ converted to euros to pay for stuff.
    Jan 17 01:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total: Why I Am Still Bullish On This 5% Yielder [View article]
    Walt...get a new broker...yours is screwing you over. The US and France have a treaty that only taxes US citizens at 15%. The catch is your broker has to do the legwork to present you as a US citizen.

    TD Ameritrade and E*Trade take 15% as they notify NY Bank Mellon, who handles the ADR, that the holder is a U.S. citizen. France has a treaty with U.S. that only tax U.S. citizens at 15% You turn in U.S. tax form at end of year so don't pay second tax on dividend as paid France 15%. Some brokers won't make paperwork effort to present you as a U.S. citizen and so 25% will be taken out for France. If you pay 25% you can get U.S. tax credit but only on 15%.
    Jan 16 09:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regulatory uncertainty is a phony explanation for the U.S. jobs problem that reflects the unwinding of the financial collapse and resulting lack of demand, a new study says. Paul Krugman chimes in: "So Republican assertions about what ails the economy are pure fantasy... [But much] of the GOP reject[s] climate science and even the theory of evolution, so why expect evidence to matter for [its] economic views?"  [View news story]
    You say that wages are rising due to fiscal stimulus. That isn't the only thing driving up wages. Much of the wage rise has to do with labor shortage due to the working age population declining. Unemployment is low because the minimum wage is set at ridiculous levels so other countries can't compete for the cheap labor (nor should they try in most situations). Also, comparing fiscal stimulus for a country like the US which has a huge budget deficit to a country like China that has a huge surplus is comparing apples and oranges. Fiscal stimulus by borrowing has much higher costs in the US if we ever intend to pay that money back.
    Sep 30 10:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regulatory uncertainty is a phony explanation for the U.S. jobs problem that reflects the unwinding of the financial collapse and resulting lack of demand, a new study says. Paul Krugman chimes in: "So Republican assertions about what ails the economy are pure fantasy... [But much] of the GOP reject[s] climate science and even the theory of evolution, so why expect evidence to matter for [its] economic views?"  [View news story]
    The Chinese stock market is approaching the 2009 lows...and their inflation is borderline out of control....your definition of "doing well" must be way different than mine.
    Sep 30 08:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons to Avoid Universal Corp. [View article]
    How did you calculate the quick ratio? It is a lower figure than what I calculate.

    Also, the majority of the inventory UVV has is spoken for by the tobacco companies via contract. They must buy at the specified price and amount agreed to earlier this year.

    You also state "Currently cash and cash equivalents only make up 5.5% of Current Assets." That isn't true at all. UVV has $141 million in cash and $1578 million in current assets. Are you using the most recent balance sheet?
    Jun 13 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Earnings Preview: Estimate Revisions Positive With 8% FCF Yield [View article]
    Selling short has the same effect as selling their own shares. Makes no sense.
    Mar 27 08:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why This Stock Is Undervalued And Should Be Owned By Every Investor [View article]
    Hold on.

    The concern over day rates is coming from the NEW (not even delivered yet) ultra deep water rigs that Diamond Offshore has recently contracted out, not their older ones. Have you read the rig status reports for all the competitors? The analysts certainly have, and that is where the concern is.

    Seadrill has 8 new ultra deep water rigs coming. Only 1 of these is currently contracted out. What rates do you believe they will get on the other 7? Will they be better than DO got? If so, why?
    Feb 17 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    I'm not long or short. No dog in this fight.

    Just stating the facts. You're putting yourself at a significant disadvantage by holding an inverse 3x etf long term. You'll need a significant price decline just to make up for the beta slippage.
    Jan 27 02:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Graftech International Is A Deal [View article]
    I absolutely question your research.

    GTI was forced into their supply contract with Phillips 66 by the US Justice Department as part of their acquisition of needle coke producer Seadrift in 2010. GTI is now the second largest needle coke producer in the world and Seadrift can fulfill all GTI's needle coke needs next year.

    This is a fundamental part of GTI's vertically integrated structure and saying things like "GTI will have to buy from new suppliers next year" shows you still don't have basic understanding of GTI's operating or cost structure. Unless graphite electrode demand increases significantly, GTI won't ever to worry about entering the needle coke market as a buyer again.

    I have no problem with owning my call on GTI last year. I'm down about 17% as my cost average is just over $9. However, I'm a long term investor and believe this market, like any other market will recover from the time of oversupply.
    Aug 27 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Bay Realty Trust: A Disaster Waiting To Happen [View article]
    Agree with vantab here.

    Investors can cheaply diversify themselves on their own. SBY won't (and shouldn't) diversify into areas where they do not believe a good ROI exists. I don't see any issue with geographic concentration as long as a good ROI exists.
    May 22 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Bay Realty Trust: A Disaster Waiting To Happen [View article]
    "In addition, when considering $64 million in annual revenue, keep in mind that as of this writing, SBY had a $737 million market cap, or 22 times potential annual rent revenue."

    Can you explain the math here? Isn't (737/64) roughly 11.5 times potential revenue?
    May 22 08:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
317 Comments
323 Likes