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Matthew Mazurczak

 
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  • Altria's 2014 Dividend Increase [View article]
    Just a question regarding the payout ratio and for anyone "concerned"

    Why would you use anything other then the payout ratio for the next 4 Qs as 2014 is nearly 3/4 over and the div will be paid out of future earnings?
    Aug 22 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria: Raising My Dividend Raise Prediction [View article]
    .52 is new div. Ill take that any day. Some shares I hold have ~15% YOC now....
    Aug 21 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria: Dividend Discount Model Suggests Shares Are 10% Undervalued [View article]
    @jsijimmy

    Management is not borrowing money for the div. If anything its for buyback and smart interest rate arbitrage/management.
    Aug 21 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold My Shares In Altria [View article]
    @IWCOTTON

    What risk is that?
    Aug 20 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria: Dividend Discount Model Suggests Shares Are 10% Undervalued [View article]
    Couple questions for the author if you dont mind.

    1. For your EBITDA increases are you just using analyst estimates? If not how much are you attributing to pricing power/FETRA expiration/MSA returned payments?

    2. Looks like you keep cap ex low which i agree with.

    3. Any thoughts on how decreasing volumes will change EBITDA with lower MSA payments decreasing at ~3% going forward to 2016 and beyond

    4. Altria just authorized a 1B buyback which they typically take care of on a pretty regular 12 month basis. Can I ask why you modeled out ~650 million over the next 2.5 years?

    5. Why do you see capex going up to 7 year highs in 2016 with decreasing volumes?

    Thanks, also would be interested in seeing your projection for PM also as that is a larger holding for myself.
    Aug 18 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: The Dividend Will Eventually Be At Risk [View article]
    Well people will do one of two things. Go back to what they have used for 5, 10, 15 years or try something new again. Does that person go as far as trying another new device? We will see.

    VPCO is another e cig/vaporizor stock that reported flat YOY numbers and big quarterly loss. They have a big vaporizor line also.

    We shall see what will happen over the next 12-18 months.
    Aug 18 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Negative Traffic Trends May Prevent Revenues From Topping $14 Billion [View article]
    JCP seems to have done the hardest part which is to initiate the turnaround. Once initiated it moves a lot smoother and momentum can increase.

    I find it curious that you see all of the positives from the recent quarter and the amount of turnaround so far but a road block at that revenue number.
    Aug 18 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How Much Altria Will Raise Its Dividend In A Few Weeks [View article]
    @Clever Fun

    Shhh!!! Dont let the declining smoking rate crowd read your comment.:)
    Aug 18 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rough Time For Philip Morris [View article]
    @goodpayout

    Nice philosphy and agree. This method has been successful for long periods of time.
    Aug 18 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • State Attorneys General Target E-Cigarettes, Which Philip Morris Hoped Would Transform The Industry [View article]
    The FDA has no authority in Europe correct? Just clarifying for others who may take your advice and invest in PM on an e cig thesis.

    Also PM bought nicocigs for their distribution network and immediate market share as an avenue to distribute Mark Ten as necessary. But as a fellow analyst you are aware that e cig usage is shrinking already via LO's blu results and VPCOs most recent results.

    E cigs seem to be a transient minimal threat to the industry at this point in immediate hindsight.
    Aug 18 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vapor Corp.: An E-Cigarette Company With 85% Upside [View article]
    I did sold a block at $4.17 and the rest at a stop loss at breakeven. Thesis did not play out as of yet as management has not delivered as of yet. My valuation estimate was based on a sales multiple and sales have not increased as expected and have been disappointing.

    VPCO is not alone as LO's blu sales dropped significantly last quarter also.
    Aug 18 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How Much Altria Will Raise Its Dividend In A Few Weeks [View article]
    Any comment on how the expiration of FETRA will impact div payments going forward?
    Aug 14 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: The Dividend Will Eventually Be At Risk [View article]
    Looks like LO had a horrible quarter with blu although some of this maybe loss of business to competitors. If one thought this sector of the industry was growing rapidly it should be able to absorb new brands better then this.

    Looks like there has been a very high trial period with little continuance as suspected.

    So far LO's volumes are way down, and regular cig usage up in Europe....
    Aug 12 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris to fight plain packaging mandates [View news story]
    Plain packaging has done nothing to lower smoking rates in Australia. Hopefully the WTO puts some pressure on Austraila and other countries pressure it to relax on its rules. A higher court could determine if it is outside of WTO rules also.
    Aug 12 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria: Raising My Dividend Raise Prediction [View article]
    @ Be Here Now

    There are a couple caveats to that simple calculation.

    1. Does the person enjoy a vaporizor or e cigs more then a regular cigarette.
    A big portion of smoking is ritual and of enjoyment. No matter how cheap some people wont down trade for less taste etc.

    2. Availability

    There is a huge infrastructure cost that would need to be hurdled to distribute this effectively and consistently.

    I am of the belief that if vaping does prove to be a significant player "big tobacco" will either make it unsustainable for smaller outfits to compete or develop superior products or marketing to gain a competitive advantage.

    3. Regulation

    Right now regulation is minimal and that has allowed the sector to grow. Big tobacco is in the back pockets of regulators and one would have to believe they will ultimately push for what is best for them in the long run. "E juice" could become very hard or expensive to get a hold of if done correctly. A simple way would be a one time licence fee of say 10 million. A drop in the bucket for MO but crippling for 99.9% of small outfits.
    Aug 10 02:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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