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Matthew Mazurczak  

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  • SABMiller talks down AB InBev's new offer [View news story]
    @ Retired.

    Im here. :)

    Mo is currently overvalued. I hold a large portion of it in my portfolio but at this point the price one is paying for valued received is not best for the investor. Blindly buying as you suggest rarely works.

    As I have suggested before the business itself (MO is a superior business) bails out the investor who blindly buys at any price.

    Also its ok to be objective about a business and the price you are paying. Im sure at times you will turn your nose up at prices of certain goods you feel are too pricey. This is no different. Its OK, your not betraying yourself, or the company if one doesn't love current value.

    You have never given me an actual answer regarding valuation so mind if I ask a couple questions of you retired one?

    1. What do you think is a fair price for SAB miller and why?

    2. It looks like MO will be able to get all stock to prevent a taxible event. That being said what do you see in terms of cash flow for the dividend?

    3. It looks like due to the influence of the board and percent owned accounting for InBev earnings/div will be addressed differently for MO. Do you see that affecting valuation?

    4. If you back out the SAB miller premium out of the Altria what multiple do you get a mature tobacco business selling at? Do you you think this is a fair multiple that is sustainable?

    5. Novice investors often discuss PE for valuation. Thankfully due to the cleanliness of the income statement PE does make sense for MO. Since MO is such a cash flow heavy business I would like to know what you think is a fair cash flow multiple for the business and where it trades now relative to that valuation.

    Id appreciate if you could answer these for me so I can better understand your buy at any price anthem.

    Oct 7, 2015. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SABMiller talks down AB InBev's new offer [View news story]
    Much better to be acquired in this environment. BUD will overpay great for SAB/MO shareholders but the more BUD pays the longer it will take for any gain to be realized.

    Current offer is 17% premium? Mr. Market is off by 17%?
    Oct 7, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Cut Its Dividend? [View article]
    @ Me

    Respect the response and self correction, thanks.
    Sep 30, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For BP? [View article]
    @ Hawk

    FWIW I wouldnt spend much time arguing with Jerry. As Im sure you have found out, (arguing about tangible money losses vs paper losses...blah) he doesnt grasp the concept is about buying business with a respective market price, not vice versa.

    Most serious informed investors could care less what the price of their stock does on a daily basis, tangible, paper, blah blah.

    In Jerrys bio he claims to be a buy and hold investor. How does someone who "holds" presumably through markets that go up and down focus on the price and not business itself? Maybe Jerry can answer that one for us.
    Sep 26, 2015. 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Cut Its Dividend? [View article]
    I think a key metric to look at that a ~10% decrease in cap ex equals ~33% of the dividend. In other words small cap ex cuts cover significant cuts of the dividend. While cap ex cuts are not great to replenish proven reserves it does force management to spend more on lower risk projects and avoid lots of high risk projects which produce dry wells or little return.
    Sep 26, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Cut Its Dividend? [View article]
    @me not you

    What do you mean BP holds shares waiting to sell? Do you mean treasury shares? If not mind pointing me to the exactly what you mean?

    Your amount you cite for dividends is incorrect. Look at last Q's cash flow statement and multiply by 4. Its not 3.5B
    Sep 26, 2015. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Please, Do Not Buy Altria Now [View article]
    @ six

    What do you mean not valid? I cant contribute to a Roth due to income restrictions. Secondly no one has MO in a taxible account?

    "companies make purchases at inflated values". Oh you mean like now?

    The lack if any other response is interesting and telling.....

    You there retired? Would like to see what you think.
    Sep 26, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria And Philip Morris International: Made For Each Other? [View article]
    There is no reason for MO and PM to recombine. Nonsense.
    Sep 21, 2015. 09:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Reduce Its Dividend? [View article]
    "My last post" I dont know. :)
    Sep 19, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Reduce Its Dividend? [View article]

    You have to excuse Jerry. He still does not know the difference between a cash and non cash expense as well as the difference in the income state and cash flow statement and how both affect a dividend.

    If you haven't already noticed Jerry has very little to offer when it comes to specifics in regard to cash flow, dividend, etc. Its because he doesn't know to relate those to the dividend viability etc.

    Your just wasting your time. If you want a real look into his investing prowess take a look at his comments on BP articles in the spring when he said CVX had better risk reward then BP.
    Sep 19, 2015. 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP - Are Investors Serious? [View article]

    Chevron has given up ~5 years of gains so far this year. Not quite the all star you though it was back in spring.

    Sep 19, 2015. 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP - Are Investors Serious? [View article]

    BP had~ 30 billion in cash on the balance sheet which pays the dividend for 5 years if there is no extra cash flow.

    Where do you see the cash crunch Im missing?

    In regards to majors not cutting spending/costs which ones are'nt currently outside of XOM?
    Sep 19, 2015. 05:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Please, Do Not Buy Altria Now [View article]
    Again appreciate the life lessons here but not really interested in the personal finance stuff. I have that figured out. I didn't accumulate a 7 figure portfolio (34) not knowing how to DRIP and dollar cost average. :) I like MO too and a big fan of the business and PM. Not looking for that though here....

    So what Im teasing out is that you like the dividend (your retired) which I appreciate. You in essence view MO as a bond (no?) and willing to pay nearly any price for a 8-9% raise a year?

    Would you buy Altria at say 30 times, 40 times earnings? if they promised an 8-9% raise a year? If yes what is your threshold for purchase and why?

    For those that buy MO because it is a superior business that are long term holders, say someone 34 like myself or even say 50 with 20 years to retirement. We should omit valuation and buy because the dividend is raised 8-9% a year?

    Do you believe price paid impacts long term return at all or just dividend raises? Buffett says (corny I know but its worked for me so far) says price is what you pay, value is what you get. We ignore that here?

    Another question I have for you would be if MO changed their shareholder pay out ratio and exclusively bought back stock. Would you sell? If so why when its a superior business?

    In such a scenario management would be returning cash to you without a secondary tax hit (15% or higher) and lowering shares outstanding allowing for faster compounding. You could then sell your appreciated shares for similar return but your return would be entirely dependent on stock valuation as the price management paid for shares bought back would inhibit or juice your returns.

    Do you think returns would be better for long term investors in such a scenario without losing 15% or more of cash returned each year via dividend taxes and allowing tax free compounding to take hold?

    A bit wordy I know but you have taken liberty also. :)
    Sep 19, 2015. 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria higher with stake in SABMiller looking tasty [View news story]
    For those speculating it at a minimum would be good to look at the cash flow of acquirer to determine if cash flow is as strong.

    One thing for sure if stock is given MO will lose influence and maybe a board seat. Synergies/cost cutting may more then make up for any lack of cash flow by InBev.

    The good news for most is the board is smarter and better versed in options then common investor. Speculation at this point unless you have a good handle on M&A and possible outcomes is useless.

    I can assure you that the board will not take a deal or stock that will yield less cash flow. Not to mention the higher and more outlandish the acquisition price InBev offers the more equity MO will get. Investors should hope an initial deal is rejected (as is almost always the case) and the offer gets ridiculous.

    Whats not a coincidence is that deals like this seem to occur at all time highs. Buffett discusses this in many of his annual reports. I hope that BUD's stock starts to decline precipitously and SAB continues to sky rocket on speculation. Gives MO holders a larger % of the combined entity and more look through earnings/cash flow like Buffett describes.
    Sep 17, 2015. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris' Disappointing Performance And 5% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Looks like raise is 2%....
    Sep 15, 2015. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment