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Matthew Mazurczak

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  • Philip Morris: Key Questions For 2014 [View article]
    I agree Fatbaboon. Rates dont appear to be rising anytime soon and we are almost through the first Q of 2014. We may see an upped buyback in 2015 and future years if management is willing to drop the A rating.
    Mar 17 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Dividend Yield Could Exceed 5% In 2014 [View article]
    PM will raise div $.10 or higher this coming year. That would equate to ~ 10.6% raise. You can mark this post now. Buyback alone from this year and last itself lends to .03-.04 cents alone. Management has also mentioned many times that any future div raise will be based on CURRENCY NEUTRAL EPS.
    Mar 14 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A Good Dividend Pick? [View article]

    Management has said that the dividend payout will be based on currency neutral EPS. Mind doing a calculation where PM could not raise the div 10-12% this year in light of currency neutral EPS and the buy back?
    Mar 14 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A Good Dividend Pick? [View article]

    Do you know the name of the FDA that PM would have to answer to?
    Mar 14 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A Good Dividend Pick? [View article]
    You got a lot of research to do on PM. :) I would suggest reading the last 4 conference call transcripts and the last to annual reports.
    Mar 14 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caution Or Optimism? Rite Aid At 7-Year High [View article]
    Stock up 7.5% on 1.5x volume to new 7 years highs and $8 price target from Goldman Sachs. Kind of ironic this happens on the day your article is published. I am long also but it appears the stock was just consolidating over the past couple of weeks. Looks like next resistance is ~10 technically.
    Mar 12 06:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Hitting $10 Soon? [View article]
    This is not the first bill that has come out to "unwind" fannie. Lets also not forget the case against the USG that they treated shareholders unfairly. There are multiple layers here.

    Lets remember all that has happened was that these congressmen DRAFTED A BILL! It has already been discussed that this will not be addressed during Obamas tenure and will need to be sold to many other congressmen.

    This is not a game changer and not the first time this has been discussed, the previous Corker bill is essentially this bill and it went no where.
    Mar 12 09:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Hitting $10 Soon? [View article]
    I hold both common and preferred shares also and agree with the long thesis but doesnt the government have a warrant for ~80% of shares? Unless deemed illegal if the gov looses the lawsuits you would have to image they would try to extract their pound of flesh there also. Did you take that into consideration with your eps target?
    Mar 9 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downfalls Of Philip Morris And Tobacco: It's Not What You Think [View article]
    As a PA I do have some insight into some of the medications avail for addicts. Antibuse is a medication that has been around for years for alcoholics. Not a huge seller and tons of relapses.

    Suboxone/subutex is available for opiate addiction and have seen hundreds if not thousands relapse back into heroin, etc. Another solution for opiate addiction is to put them on another opiate, ie methadone.

    The problem again is that alcholics like to drink, heroin addicts like the high, morbidly obese people like to eat, smokers like to smoke etc, etc. Its very hard to take something away from someone when they enjoy it. The brain is very powerful and works both ways.

    IMO for the majority of your thesis to take hold you need to change human nature and tendencies. Very hard to do.
    Mar 8 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downfalls Of Philip Morris And Tobacco: It's Not What You Think [View article]
    Your correct, we could get to that point. But I also think it will take a long, long time. Look at the smoking rate over time has decreased to what 18-20%? So 1 in 5 people still smoke after the relentless ads, anti tobacco marketing etc. This is in addition to all the smokers that have died!

    At some point it will become very hard if it hasn't already to get down to 16-15-14% etc. Think of it like wringing out a washcloth. Very easy at first but can become very hard at the end to get the last little bit out.

    E cigs could reignite the whole industry and frankly many anti smoking groups are very fearful of this. Their claim that e cigs are bad is not based on any scientific proof but based on the fact that this could legitimately reverse all of their efforts and hard work. If smoking isn't bad for you any more bc of technology how else will you villianize it?
    Mar 8 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downfalls Of Philip Morris And Tobacco: It's Not What You Think [View article]
    people will smoke based on their taste preference. Packaging means nothing.
    Mar 8 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downfalls Of Philip Morris And Tobacco: It's Not What You Think [View article]
    I go to bars and order a draft beer and its given to me in a pint glass. I may not see them pour it but I can tell right away if its the kind I like.

    I drink alot of pepsi, If they put a fat person on bottle Id still buy it, just pour it in a glass.

    I could go on and on.

    On the vaccination front we often forget how ritualistic smoking is and how much people utterly ENJOY smoking. It provides stress relief for some and even maintains weight loss. Sure there are a fraction of people who would "love" to quite but cant (really?) but actually truly enjoy smoking, thus they continue to.

    Watch the show my 600lb life and you see a perfect example of human tendencies and addiction. Its easy to sit there and say how could this person get this big, how could they still eat McDonalds after gastic bypass....the reason, because they enjoy it and could are less about the consequences. Smoking is another example of this.

    Its the liberals and non smoking groups that have tried to personalize smoking with warning and impactful pictures. The problem is if you were really bothered by it in the first place YOU WOULD'NT BE SMOKING! We also as humans have biases and the feeling that it will never happen to me. Ask yourself if you see yourself getting stuck by lightening and dying. Your answer would be no way, that would never happen to me what are the chances??? The same that anyone else gets struck my lightening. We don't view it that way though.

    Nice article, long PM, MO etc but appreciate the points.
    Mar 7 02:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Is The Best Tobacco Stock In The Industry? [View article]
    @ Be Here Now,

    You really more then a sample size of 2 to make a valid conclusion regarding the addictive nature of nicotine. Im afraid is one of our biases as humans that is leading you to that conclusion.
    Mar 6 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vapor Corp.: A Pure Play On The Smoking E-Cigarette Industry [View article]
    Nice article and I agree with all of the points made. Long shares and see much more upside coming and eventual buyout.
    Mar 6 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Bank Of America Like Buffett: Warrants Offer Tremendous Value [View article]
    Looks like the market is pricing in some dividend adjustments on the A warrants as we speak. There has been a bit of a positive disconnect in the pricing compared to what was seen the last time the stock was at these levels.

    Long A warrants and common.
    Mar 6 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment