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Matthew Pixa  

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  • Telefonica Offers A Better Value Than AT&T Or Verizon [View article]
    We actually own this stock in many of our portfolios but, with all due respect, for NONE of the following reasons:

    V = E0 + E1 /(1+r) + E2 /(1+r)2 + E3/(1+r)3 + E4/(1+r)4 + E5/(1+r)5 + Disposal Value

    V = E0 + E0 (1+g)/(1+r) + E0(1+g)2/(1+r)2 + … + E0(1+g)5/(1+r)5 + E0(1+g)5/[r(1+r)5]

    I love and respect actual financial analysis but this is pure garble nonsense. Seriously people....wake up. Great stock, decent fundamentals, excellent dividends..and while we still own it for now...the company and existing economic struggles within the Euro-zone plague/crisis will hamper TEF in the near-term.
    Dec 9, 2011. 05:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Very Possible To Succeed In Active Portfolio Management [View article]
    You're right in that the market will obviously be either up, down, or trade sideways...

    We believe that the BEST and most optimal approach to this reality is to be able to "tactically allocate" between and within asset classes according to the three main factors we analyze;

    Economic Fundamentals, Investor Sentiment, and Technical Analysis.

    This appears perhaps complicated at first glance, but alarmingly simple when disciplined. Due to all three of these factors lining up the way they are currently now situated, we are 42.86% cash for the majority of all of our accounts.
    Dec 6, 2011. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'Bold' Plan: Getting 'Extremely' Defensive And Liquid [View article]
    Perhaps one of the best questions I've seen on Seeking Alpha!

    I say this only because most people I know and meet have no trouble's typically the opposite! Nobody knows when to sell. Most investors get stuck into the old buy and hold mentality, or what I call "buy & forget". This is more so with individual stocks/companies since most have an optimistic view of the intangible promise that an investment will pan out.

    I rarely buy anything without an exit strategy. I see it as the same rationale for getting in. Consider the three factors I mention in this article; Fundamentals, Investor Sentiment, and Technical Analysis. If a specific investment that I've exited still does not meet the factors I sold it for (at least 2 of the 3) I'll rarely touch it or entertain getting back in.

    Right now is a perfect case in point! Here I go with an article that could easily put me in the bucket of a "market timer" and portrays a picture of the sky falling. Yes...I do feel that we're currently kicking the can down the road and in some way simply avoiding the inevitable. The market ran up huge almost literally the day SA published my article. NOTHING, however, has changed from an economical standpoint. If one sells a majority of their equity positions like we have and feels we're due for another or extended recession, you run the risk of seeing things run away from you if you're flat out wrong. One way to hedge the risk of this happening is to gradually buy back into or hold positions you trust most or see the strongest potential in.

    I typically hold certain individual stocks that I believe will outperform the broader indexes. If I see continued confirmation that we're not in a "rising tide", I'll likely stick to my guns and not buy back into the broad indexes in full force. If I see signs of irrational buying on false hope or optimism, I may inch back into certain broader indexes to not ignore the overall premise that disciplined asset allocation outperforms those who try to time markets.

    One could easily ascertain that we are witnessing some year-end hope that something is getting resolved but realistically there are too many factors telling rationale investors that it's not viable. This recent run could be short covering, hope/renewed optimism, etc.

    If we were to get back in it will have to be from clear signals that tell us MOST of the three factors are in place. Even if they are not, the last piece I would insert is that I typically buy/nibble back into market corrections of 10% or more. In other words...all markets correct eventually, and once they do, it typically can't hurt to edge back into positions after about an 8% to 10% correction. (almost like dollar cost averaging)

    If there is no massive bear market and we're somewhere in between (a 10% correction or "20% bear") I'll buy smaller positions of about 25% of the initial exposure/allocation after a correction.

    Sorry for a long winded answer but that's my take-

    Thanks again for a great question.
    Dec 2, 2011. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'Bold' Plan: Getting 'Extremely' Defensive And Liquid [View article]
    Thank you Robin. You're exactly right. By the time my article was finally published via SA the market roared back in two days. I believe yesterday was actually the strongest single day the market has seen since 2009 but as you might imagine my opinion and stance has not changed much. I think we were obviously due a bounce but the reasons for what moved the markets higher yesterday almost cause me greater concern over how this will all play out!
    Thanks again for the comment/observation.
    Dec 1, 2011. 03:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairholme's Major Transactions For Q3 2011 [View article]
    I would hope he was. Having so much in one stock that is down almost 55% in just one year would be a "show stopper" for me.
    Nov 19, 2011. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairholme's Major Transactions For Q3 2011 [View article]
    You're not a client but for those interested in an update, one will soon follow. Unlike many "journalists", commenters, or advisors, I will be posting an article shortly that articulates my current stance and welcomes your thoughts and feedback.
    In that posting you will see what I've done and where I put my money as well as for those who I have a fiduciary to.
    Nov 18, 2011. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairholme's Major Transactions For Q3 2011 [View article]
    Sounds like a date... I'll circle back just for chuckles but I highly doubt I'd devote an article to one fund if it beats an unmanaged index. Isn't that what they're supposed to do and what you pay 1% or more for?

    Don't take my comments too personally. I'm simply pointing out that most funds don't beat their benchmarks. Now, when they completely get blasted and underperform an index by almost 500 basis points over three years....I believe that you fall into the "losing money is not a good strategy" camp.

    I got out of this fund because I don't have the same faith in AIG as the fund does. Berkowitz must be a lot smarter, or know and see something I don't. What I do know, however, is that from the sale proceeds I placed elsewhere....we're up +1.9% instead of being down -10.2% in just a short stretch.

    Enough said -
    Nov 18, 2011. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairholme's Major Transactions For Q3 2011 [View article]
    You have no idea when I "jumped in". I had this for a long time and enjoyed some decent performance. I agree with you that most people run with the herd and it rarely ends up well.

    In the case of this fund, however,no matter how "deep value" or contrarian one might simply stinks. The moves he's making now may play out but it's doubtful over the next 6-12 months. I would be shocked if he comes even close to his benchmark with this current allocation. If you love beaten down financials....just buy them. Why have this guy charge you 1% for it?

    I promise to eat my words if this fund does better than the S&P over the next year. It certainly hasn't done better than where I've deployed the sale proceeds.

    Lastly....I don't think he was a genius then and he's not a fool now. He's just another mutual fund manager that underperforms but has a following. Being down over 3% during the past three years is hard to do....It's not "value" ; it's simply massive underperformance.
    Nov 17, 2011. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairholme's Major Transactions For Q3 2011 [View article]
    Of the few mutual funds I hold....this was easily the worst and I'm so glad to be done with it. Every dog has its day but this fund has just been decimated with Berkowitz's overweight and stubborn holding of weak companies with little near-term upside.
    Nov 16, 2011. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing Market Risk [View article]
    Thanks for the article.
    I'm not convinced that "all three risks are overblown". The story in Europe is far from over; it's probably more akin to the second or third inning of a 9 inning baseball game.
    You use the word "risk" in this piece and I personally see more risk in hoping for year-end upside as opposed to getting defensive and waiting for the broad market to peel off 10% or more in the next 2-3 months.

    We moved to our heaviest cash position of the year this past Friday and couldn't be happier with that decision. In our opinion, October's rally was not the "opening act" but rather an excellent exit point to get our shopping list ready...
    Nov 15, 2011. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Has Reversed On Apple Because He Doesn't Understand It [View article]
    AAPL is not done yet.

    As far as Jim Cramer...he's not "dumb" and nor is he manipulating the stock downward to buy more. Is he a hedge fund manager?
    No ....he WAS one.

    Folks...he's an ENTERTAINER in the media. Jim Cramer manages your emotions, your laughs & grumbles, little sound instruments on his studio panel, and ultimately television ratings....not a portfolio.
    Sure he manages a "charitable trust" of some sort but I doubt that's his motivation to talk Apple stock up or talk it down.
    Nov 13, 2011. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour: Why It's Time To Short [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Ironically enough....after the recent rally I've been looking to take some profits and Under Armour is one of the first positions I'm selling. It's done great for us but simply looks frothy at these levels.
    Oct 28, 2011. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace For The Alcoa Bears [View article]
    For anyone who thought Alcoa was a dog...are you reconsidering? We've added to this position at several points and aside from being up over 9% still has plenty of upside....

    Don't let market corrections deter you from seeing value-
    Oct 27, 2011. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO And Bill Gross Apologize For Poor Performance [View article]
    Extremely valid point! Most advisors or managers never even touch the topic of being flat out wrong.

    The typical manager in Gross' shoes would have simply pointed out that over 5 years he still ranks in the top 5% of all bond funds.

    Kudos to Bill Gross but I'll continue using BND for fractions of the cost.
    Oct 16, 2011. 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • October Rally Keeps S&P 500 On '07 Recession Pace [View article]
    Oct 15, 2011. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment