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Matthew Roesener

 
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  • Cummins' Engine Is Just Getting Warmed Up [View article]
    Another great analysis Phillip!
    Feb 20, 2013. 12:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
    While I agree that in most industries products or disruptive innovations of similar value that cost less or are more accessible usually beat the premium competition and eat at their margins, I have to disagree when analyzing Whole Foods. I agree with bgold1955 certainly not 3x. I shop at both whole foods and TJ's. You can find a variety of smart buys. I also agree with Jbgoose. There is a major generational shift in health awareness, specifically the 21-35 crowd. I cant speak for other cities, but Los Angeles thrives on this. Yes you may be able to find cheaper products at Ralphs, Albertsons, Vons, or Safeway, but what WFM has going for them is selection. There are products that customers can't find anywhere else. Specialty cheeses, meats, wines, breads, flours, milks etc. WFM also focuses on its local market. Thats what makes it stand out above the competition, it provides specialty products to its region. Not all Whole Foods have the same products. From a relative ratio perspective in comparison to its "peers" WFM may be overvalued, but I would not short this stock. I would buy on dips.
    Feb 14, 2013. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is Overvalued [View article]
    You guys are probably all right. This stock is way over valued from all metrics, but you can't underestimate (or value for that matter) the buying power of the human mind or the need to look "cool". Yes Nike, UA and Adidas is bring competition in with their own yoga apparel lines. Just look at their front page! or search yoga on nike.com.

    http://bit.ly/12ijq6j

    The main growth factor going forward is increasing brand recognition. It's the reason why I buy Nike running shoes over Adida's when I go to the gym. As Lulu continues to contract with high profile celebrities or sponsor sporting events, the company and stock will be strong. And forget the short interest. Just look at my trade today with $Z.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Many have argued the stock is overvalued with short interest increasing. I bought calls yesterday. But valuing tech companies is completely different than valuing retail clothing companies, like I said its all about maintaing brand recognition.
    Feb 13, 2013. 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Valuation Of Zillow [View article]
    Hey Guys,

    If I take in your suggestions. I've lowered my avg 10 year CAGR going forward to 60%. This assumes that ttm revenue growth is 70% and moves down to 50% going forward. TTM revenue data has grown significantly above these numbers.

    http://bit.ly/Y8ZPhc

    I've increased operating margins to the industry average and let cost of capital stay the same. Overall I get an equity valuation of $35.

    To be honest I'm just very bullish on this company. I believe it has a profitable business model, it creates a product that is not only valuable to the marketplace, but is also disruptive, especially with its new Zillow Digs innovation. Its hard to quantify disruptive innovations because they create new markets with products that are either affordable, easily accesible or cheaper. Zillow provides a product that helps users estimate the true cost of a home relative to the marketplace, it creates a network of engaged users that help one another, it provides information about not only property values but school ratings, monthly payment costs and agent recommendations. Now with their new Zillow Digs product users can estimate the cost of remodeling their home while also sharing and finding new ideas from other users. Personally I believe the company can add more value by letting users provide recommendations of local areas or districts. All in all Z has a number of growth drivers and growth catalysts.
    Feb 13, 2013. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Discovery Communications: A Quantitative Perspective [View article]
    Philip,

    Thank you. I appreciate your comment. I actually read both of your articles prior to my post. You did a great job jumping into DISCA's current product lines, growth figures, and management decisions. I became more bullish just reading your articles.

    I completely agree that DISCA is under most investors' radars. I look forward to reading more of your articles as well. Thank you!
    Feb 5, 2013. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is Overvalued [View article]
    I've shopped at Lulu. I own two pairs of 7'' surge shorts. I love the atmosphere and the immediate customer service as soon as you walk into the door. Its also cool that they have yoga classes on Sundays. The place is always filled with women with some men. But I also like Nike apparel and they have similar product innovations. Yet my opinions may be biased since I live in LA.
    Feb 13, 2013. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is Overvalued [View article]
    I would not short this stock until after earnings when there may be some confirmation about margin erosion and slowing revenue. By shorting now you are only setting yourself up for a short squeeze on any positive news.
    Feb 13, 2013. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Earnings After The Bell - Could Call Of Duty Be Its Savior And Will WoW Perform? [View instapost]
    Hey Phill,

    I agree! I'm very bullish on publishers and creative content providers in general! I'm excited to hear more about the PS4 and Xbox 360 consoles.
    Feb 8, 2013. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discovery Communications: A Quantitative Perspective [View article]
    Thank you!
    Feb 6, 2013. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discovery Communications: A Quantitative Perspective [View article]
    Hi James,

    Thank you for your comment. I do agree with your valuation of SNI. Although I haven't thoroughly valued the company myself, from a P/E perspective SNI looks to be significantly undervalued. The problem is I don't believe SNI has the innovative product pipeline just yet that is needed for it to grow further. DISCA's creative content is a lot different than SNI. I do see some potential in SNI with its ownership of the Travel Channel. According to Scripps CEO Ken Lowe the Travel Channel "is probably our single biggest opportunity" and "Travel Channel is where we see the biggest opportunity for the growth of the company. Defining that brand and genre is the company's leading priority." - Spokesman Mark Kroeger. I'll have to research SNI further to make a recommendation.

    My valuation of DISCA is based upon the growth of its popular flagship shows and its continuously creative content. For example in the third quarter DISCA's "Animal Planet, Investigation Discovery, Velocity, Destination America, OWN and The Hub, all delivered double-digit growth in the target demographics." - Discovery's Quarterly Publication

    I used last years annual revenue growth rate of 12% going forward. Keep in mind this is a growth forecast over 10 years discounted back to present value. According to the avg analyst growth estimates for the next 5 years, analysts are expecting a 20% compounded annual revenue growth rate. The industry as a whole is growing at roughly 15%. So I still feel my revenue growth estimates are conservative going forward.

    http://yhoo.it/X1Hy8X

    I wanted to reevaluate my model based upon your 8-10% recommendation. If I change the revenue growth forecast going forward to 10% . My price target is roughly $75. This is also based upon using an average operating margin of only 35% going forward, which is pretty conservative.

    In the end, I still believe DISCA stock is a strong buy and I will buy more on pullbacks.
    Feb 6, 2013. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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