When you cannot make sense of that which is going on around you, it is best to have a seat on the bench and wait until you have figured out that which perplexes you. That has been our rule for some time now and the reason we have been reluctant to buy on dips lately unless it is an absurd move lower in a great stock...sorry no coal names for our portfolio at this time. Much of our lack of conviction results from a breakdown in our indicators, which we cover in today's article.

Today we have added copper to our daily update on morning commodity prices. We have a few other new features we have been working on lately and will be rolling those out over the next few days. More prices will be included and we will be rolling out some data we have been collecting over the

We will get the Fed rate decision today and shall get some insight into the board's plan moving forward. A lot is being made of Obama's comments regarding Ben Bernanke and those are overblown. The President did not fire the Federal Reserve Chairman but simply offered him a way out. So long as Bernanke feels he needs to stay on the job, or even wants to stay on the job, he will be allowed...the man has earned that much.

Look for choppy markets today with a move higher after the Fed's comments later today as long as nothing new comes out that takes the market by surprise.

Chart of the Day:

With interest rates moving higher we could see the growth in refinancings stall as it becomes less beneficial for homeowners to refi with rates closer to where they took out their original loan. We are not in trouble yet,

We continue to find the natural gas and coal trades interesting as investors move in and out of the two on a whim and very short notice. It seems that the buyers who push stock prices up are momentum traders as they spook easily and appear to have moved in to names to time a market move higher. That is the only way we can explain why the coal names have been so volatile and seem unable to build support before making a move higher. It also would explain the skittishness over news events which seem to have little meaning when looking at the big picture.

Chart of the Day:

Natural gas is bouncing off of 3-month lows and found support at the $3.75 level. The market will be watching the $4 level now and to see whether the current downtrend can be broken. If one were to ask us,

We saw markets perform strongly yesterday with all three of the indices showing strength and key names attracting attention. It seems markets are growing content with the fact that eventually the Federal Reserve is going to have to step back from the $85 billion a month bond buying program and lower it in order to slowly exit the market and not send shock waves when they do back out permanently. This week shall go a long ways in figuring out exactly how the Fed is thinking as they have a two day meeting and policy on QE3 will be at the top of the list.

Chart of the Day:

Sony had lagged the Nikkei for much of the run-up, however with Dan Loeb entering the picture and talks of a break-up/spin-off increasing the two have become more correlated when looking at a one year chart.

(click to enlarge)

Chart courtesy

The markets went into the weekend red and late last night Asian markets rallied to finish green, providing good news for us to trade on here in North America this morning. One thing to be aware of, the Tuesday winning streak has been over for the past few weeks and a new type of streak has developed...a losing streak.

As we mentioned last week, regardless of how the market moves, we are of the mindset that we want to be on the sidelines.

Chart of the Day:

We found this chart today of natural gas production in the US. As BP stated last week, we are at all-time highs in production and this is a good thing for the country. Yes prices are lower and hurting producers, but industry is able to manufacture products and operate at a cheaper level which creates many jobs. This might be the backbone of

We were quite impressed with yesterday's rally and it did stir up our inner bull. However we do feel that we are a bull in a china shop right now as this feels like a 'Goldilocks' economy and market rally. If the correction in Japan cannot be contained and tempered a bit then world markets as a whole could be upset as many have moved risk-on assets over there. We would not look forward to a Japanese led Asian Contagion. Thus our cautiousness at this time.

Let us see the Japanese show a bit more humbleness in the face of this correction and possibly have a Bernanke or Paulson moment where they say they will do whatever it takes to make their plan a success. Say it on a big stage, numerous times and keep saying it elsewhere until the market believes it...and should the market not buy it, step

Yesterday was a very strong day in the market and even stronger when one considers how poorly markets were set to open early in the morning. Remember Japan was under serious pressure and Europe was red too, but North American markets opened and never looked back and that is leading to strength in Asia and Europe today, with the UK facing some headwinds - but those are due to a different set of issues; specific to the UK only.

This is strength which should give the bears caution and provide further confidence to the bulls. Any time a chart moves from the lower left to the upper right you have to like it...unless of course you are bearish, which we are not. We do remain cautious here though.

Chart of the Day:

Yesterday's chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

(click to enlarge)

Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

We have

The Asian markets are looking a bit scary this morning, but one must realize that China has been closed for holiday and this is their first day to react to the latest bit of news. This explains the fact that they are the second most down market there.

We are moving to a more conservative posture now as the price action in some of our indicators is in an area we would describe as 'no man's land'. Our tennis coach always told us to stay out of there on the court, and that lesson has proven to be true in the markets as well. When in 'no man's land' one does not add to positions or sell them off, but waits until you find your way out of there one way or another...it is then that you act. We are in a cash accumulation phase now with only the dividend

We have a ton of economic news due out today, however much of it may be muted if it is not something that blows investors away due to the markets in Asia which have had investors around the world worried all morning. The fears were quickly exported to Europe this morning and there is a bunch of red across our screen, so we expect little good to come of today in regards to our portfolio. We do expect to see small improvements in the employment data, but nothing surprising.

Chart of the Day:

It was ugly last night as Japan fell and fell precipitously. Rallies were attempted, but three times the index approached its lows, and the third time it finished there. Very ugly day indeed.

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Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

We have economic news due out today, and it is as follows:

• Initial Claims (8:30 a.m.

There is an awful lot going on these days in the peripherals which has been quite distracting to investors and taken the focus off of the core. We are hearing a lot about pullbacks and how one is needed at this time for the entire market, but that is not necessarily true. If one studies the rally we have had, although the general market has lacked major pullbacks we have seen them in subsectors which accomplishes the same thing just on a smaller scale and not at the same time. The effect it does have is slow the general market push higher and causes sideways movement...something we are seeing in the commodity space right now.

Chart of the Day:

We continue to see the US Dollar Index fall, which should eventually translate into bullishness for the commodity space as a whole. It shall take a bit of time and we

A lot is riding on the revelation that the US government is spying on its own citizens and the fallout has the potential to be catastrophic to certain companies and potentially the government itself as more details come out. This is why we are seeing big companies join together and lobby the government to make information available to consumers in order to blunt the eventual blow and attempt to demonstrate that they are out ahead of the issue here. It is a hot potato and no one wants to be caught holding it last, but it sure appears that the companies teaming up will force the government's hand.

Chart of the Day:

This polling by Pew does show that the vast majority of citizens want the government to put a stop to terrorism even if it does snare innocent citizens into its fishnet. That is generally the consensus until one

Much of the focus has been on the U.S. Fed lately and whether it will be keeping up with its buying or tapering off later in the year. Perhaps more attention should be paid to Japan and whether it will continue its printing and buying because that is more of the story now. Japan is, in fact, manufacturing inflation and there are now calls for the yen to rise over 50% to 150 vs. the U.S. dollar, with 175 being a level also seen as easily attained. Dennis Gartman has been spot on regarding this trade, and now that he is calling for another move higher we are paying attention.

Chart of the Day

Click to enlarge images.

Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Commodity prices this morning are as follows:

• Gold: $1368.30/ounce, down by $17.70/ounce
• Silver: $21.555/ounce, down by $0.37/ounce
• Oil: $95.24/barrel, down by $0.53/barrel
• RBOB Gas: $2.825/gallon, down by

With credit markets continuing to open up and risk takers returning to the market, we are hopeful that in the next year or two we will have returned to more normalized times. The early movers will be big winners and, with that said, we have to wonder exactly how much business companies like JPMorgan Chase are picking up due to their healthy balance sheets and ability to act on improving markets. Our guess is that it will set them apart from their peers in the next few years and will force others to take on more risk and lesser terms to try to steal the businesses back.

Chart of the Day:

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Chart courtesy of focus-economics.com

We have economic news due out today, and it is as follows:

• Wholesale Inventories (10:00 a.m. ET): 0.2%

Asian markets finished lower today:

• All Ordinaries -- up 0.41%
• Shanghai Composite -- CLOSED

We are finding the linkage between natural gas and coal to be interesting here as it seems that neither one can build enough momentum to rise above certain resistance points in the charts. Worse still is the fact that as each of the commodities rises the market is supplied with more of the commodity right away. It was part of the reason we suspected that natural gas would not rise back above $3 and why we figured we would go sub-$1, which never happened. It is interesting watching two oversupplied, interchangeable commodities go head to head in the open market and something we really have not seen before. Take notes and learn from this situation because one never knows when it will happen again but it is better to be prepared for it then than be forced to ask those who were paying attention and taking notes.

Chart of the

This weekend we spent some considerable time researching stocks we have recommended in the past and wanting to provide an update on those names for readers. Names not covered today shall appear in future updates as warranted, but today we cover a good many names that readers should be familiar with. We do feel that some names in the market are getting expensive, however if one must choose whether to be long a stock looking 'toppy' and being in cash on the sideline, we would rather ride momentum than be idle.

Chart of the Day:

The volatility continues in Japan, however overnight the market there opened higher and continued higher throughout the session. The Nikkei closed above 13.500 and that in our eyes is bullish, especially with the market rising nearly 5%.

(click to enlarge)

Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

We do not have economic news due out today, but

We are seeing some interesting times in the commodity space, as oil and natural gas dance around current levels and it is becoming more and more obvious that the spread between Brent and WTI Crude is narrowing. This is giving refiners some headaches and as the transportation routes out of such areas as the Bakken and Utica continue to improve and get production to market quicker, the ability to play arbitrage games quickly dissipates.

We were correct to lead readers out of the refiners near the highs, and the levels we called to exit left plenty of meat on the bones from our entry points for those who wanted to risk staying in for a bounce upwards after our sell recommendations.

Today we want to look at how investors are approaching these new MLPs and companies that are looking to break up their asset base in hopes of creating further

Everyone is awaiting the job numbers today, which have to be just right in order to enable the market rally to get a second wind and continue higher. It is almost like we are back in the 2005-2007 Goldilocks Economy where growth was not too fast to turn the Fed against the markets nor too slow to create a poor environment for stocks.

For those looking towards Asia for investments, George Soros is now once again investing in Japan (see article here) which indicates he is no longer looking for a pullback. His timing was impeccable as he sold before the big drop and the fact he now sees value is worth paying attention to, if only because he has been able to time this market so perfectly. His bullishness on stocks coincides with Goldman going long again (see article on their comments here) and putting out bullish

We have been looking to China to provide that extra bit of growth to really grease the wheels and jump start the entire world economy but unfortunately that has not yet happened. After the Smithfield Foods purchase we are left to wonder if it will ever be the case as it is quite possible that we have seen the major infrastructure build out and now must watch slower growth there as the country and its citizens instead shift their focus to improving quality of life via lifestyle changes, most likely through food consumption. That could be an even bigger boost to America, especially if they are concerned about the quality and safety of their food supply chain and what they are importing.

Chart of the Day:

US lawmakers are apparently getting upset with China and their "currency manipulation" but to be fair their currency has been rising against the US$.

Today investors are focusing upon the jobs numbers and going over such esoteric details as to whether a good number is bad and if a bad number will be good. The fear is obviously whether the Fed will be forced to tip its hand for the next few months to further encourage this rally and keep the economy on track for a full recovery. The numbers probably will be a bit worse than expected and oddly enough that should be enough to push the markets into positive territory.

While investors look to the jobs numbers, the rest of America's attention is on Verizon (VZ) and the news that they have been turning over large amounts of data concerning their customers' phone usage to the government without a traditional warrant. It is a very strange situation where there is a blanket warrant which was secret that covered this information hand-off. Now

Yesterday was further evidence that oil and natural gas E&P investors really have little tolerance or understanding of the current shale boom. If recent history is any indicator Kodiak Oil & Gas's (KOG) news shall be a long-term boost to shares while providing a short-term buying opportunity as investors rotate out.

Chart of the Day:

With US production growing by leaps and bounds, along with Canadian production, less imports are needed from outside North America and we are finally seeing the Brent Premium deflate. This has been helped by rail shipments on the continental system in North America and as pipelines continue to be built and oil in areas like Ohio developed further the premium shall continue to collapse and could very well become a discount. Something to ponder for sure.

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Chart courtesy of rbnenergy.com

Commodity prices this morning are as follows:

• Gold: $1397.10/ounce, down by $0.10/ounce