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Matthew Smith

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  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes we will begin to see production rates in 1H of 2013. We will be able to start getting curves later, but could probably extrapolate some of the results from Chesapeake's NGL wells...roughly scientific!
    Dec 14 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Alright once again, not sure why you are looking into the past to discuss acquisitions as that point is mute. Read the notes from the presentation and comments coming out. The CEO stated that the days of big acquisitions are over. Focus is shifting towards internal factors. If they can find a way to extend Copaxone that would obviously be great for them and require a readjustment to the price, but just calling them like I see them and on the acquisition portion it is hard to argue against what the CEO stated.
    Dec 14 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes the low nat gas prices are something which everyone is aware of by now, but the NGL pricing coming down is a prediction made earlier in the year that seems to be happening a bit faster than anticipated. In the resource companies which are growing production areas to form a base to value in the future it is my experience that there is a "grace" period where CAPEX is going to outpace expectations and probably cause some dilution. At this point it seems a bit silly to worry about their spending, and would rather focus on liquidity - a far more valuable measurement I have found. Also remember that the company has a large acreage position which is held-by-production (HBP) which helps tremendously if you are forced to stop drilling.

    I think going it alone in the Utica long-term is going to pay handsome dividends, even with a potential secondary. They could always take on a joint venture partner as they build up production from their landholdings, but I do see an immediate boost coming in the second half of the year as they should be able to deliver more production to market out west. That does not solve the problem, but it helps. Also they are directing most of their spending at actually drilling wells and doing so in liquid rich areas (oily in the Wattenberg too).

    Looking at the Utica well costs, the first wells will be the most expensive but the company is forecasting for them to fall. It also seems to me that they will be utilizing pads early on with their next round of wells (that is off the top of my head, do not have my notes with me right now) so that should also help with utilization and efficiency efforts.

    So to answer your question, I have been a long-term buyer of PDCE on this pullback in the retirement account. I think the Utica will be timed where their wells will come online just as the midstream is ramping up in the area, thus providing for takeaway. The main driver is their growth in production multiplied by what I believe will be a higher oil price in 2013 - assuming fiscal cliff issues are avoided.

    I am trying to find time to have a conversation with management at some point in the near-future in order to ask some questions regarding their strategy and the actual timelines for some of these storylines they have put out there.
    Dec 13 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    A lot of people had issues with him, but I think he knew what he was doing. Big let down as rare earths deflated and with some of these missteps it seems he was forced out. It might have been a situation where like in college sports you self impose penalties hoping that the later punishment from the NCAA is less severe since you "cleaned house" or cleaned up the mess yourself...it is a bit odd, but I would say far more sloppy. One would have thought a plan would have been in place.
    Dec 13 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes saw that news today right after I submitted my article...Looks like Sprint went in about where I was talking about and Clearwire shareholders are going to try and force them to pay higher...it shall be interesting to see where they negotiate to.
    Dec 13 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes, see today's article where I touched on exactly what you stated regarding that resistance...
    Dec 13 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    What would they have competed for?! Please the whole financial system would have collapsed as it is not structured to face demand for 100% liquidity. The Great Depression was a good thing in your book? Please...there is a lack of leadership and they are the only ones using all of the tools at their disposal and taking the blame for doing the right thing. Not doing anything would have set us back a decade or two overnight.
    Dec 13 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Small to mid-sized acquisitions to build up in their targeted areas they announced. Hard to see those filling the hole created by the patent expirations which are upcoming. But it appeared to me that they are moving from big buys to smaller bolt on buys at best. No game changer M&A. And near term growth in the EPS coming from these cost cutting measures - most in the next 3years if I'm not mistaken. It's definitely a shuffling of the deck.

    I never said ALL organic just that they are shifting focus towards developmental rather than acquisational practices which seemed to be what was stated by the CEO.
    Dec 13 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Great comments guys! Keep them coming.
    Dec 13 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    I was actually looking at those today as ANR has moved up sharply and WLT has had some impressive days as of late as well...
    Dec 12 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    You could very well be right. Just not a fan of playing the takeover game tbh...but I hope they do pay a big premium for general market purposes!
    Dec 12 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    You are right on that. Just worried about KOG in relation to the peer group.
    Dec 12 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Release by lynas tonight shows they have some time and MCP loses their CEO...although they have a more than capable one who was waiting in the wings and has assumed day-to-day responsibilities under the title of interim CEO...quite interesting.
    Dec 11 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    There is always some sort of premium built in...once it's out that an acquisition won't fly things get valued at prices closer to the value of the business and it's future cash flows...for instance, remember when some were saying that US lawmakers may limit foreign (read China) investment in the shale plays? Stocks like CHK and the like got hit on investor concerns.

    Or when the US gov said that AT&T was too big to buy T-Mobile...that deflated the premiums in all those stocks b/c who would buy them?

    Look at Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, probably Cameco too with the golden vote (or whatever they call it) after the government shot down the BHP bid. Do we hear about anyone discussing POT as a buyout target anymore? Sure don't hear that talk anymore after the government said no go. People always speculate things will get bought and people have speculated SU would in the past. To think otherwise would be silly to borrow your word.

    http://buswk.co/U5rgs3

    And there is some correlation here after the others' announcements.

    http://yhoo.it/USRSPS
    Dec 11 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    And is that not the point of the quote which you so eloquently copy and pasted?
    Dec 11 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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