Playing The Rebound In Coal: 5 Stocks To Lead The Way [View article]
Good call guys, I was looking at a spreadsheet of the past year's dividends...it was changed to $0.03/share per quarter moving forward. Thanks for pointing that out!
You are correct, that is when they said they would go it alone and not really do acquisitions...seems that some of the earnings dates sites got messed up yesterday with the documents they filed getting misclassed as an actual earnings date. My fault on that.
The program ends 2013...Russia has been buying mines and deposits around the world, so it appears they will end the cheap uranium supply. Today what is actually mined does not equal what is consumed, so it looks like prices need to rise.
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
I am still looking into what the loans really are, actual loans or some sort of forward sale of production with a guaranteed return for the lender. A guaranteed return for the lender would seem to have little chance of default unless the wells were never economical. But the big point is whether he was required to disclose it, and that forces us to look at whether the private oil juniors are forced to disclose to the operators of wells the types and volume of debt they have on wells (answer to that is no to my knowledge).
Tuesday's Commodity News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
Based on the fact that natural gas prices are going down further, which will lead coal and coal stocks down further. If we missed the bottom we would be playing for a 5% pullback, not a 20%!
Friday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
Yes, and it has been a soap opera in getting to this point! We have actually been looking to include Ivanhoe next time we talk about copper, probably Monday assuming Copper prices stay where they stand.
Monday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
I personally think that earnings will be good, however with an E&P stock it is never truly about the earnings, but rather the exploration and success of their exploration efforts. I think KOG is a good medium to long-term play on the Bakken area and any pullbacks are to be bought.
So if you are asking should you buy because there might be good news regarding exploration, I would say that is not the way to go as the risk/reward is high/low. They may have little to say b/c they are negotiating or other reasons, but to buy half before earnings and half after to play longer-term is the better way to go.
The stock has been quite strong so a lot is already priced in...a minor misstep and 10% haircut easily.
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
DNN is the product of the old Denison and International Uranium (a Lundin backed company). We liked IU, and thought Denison's management was too much like Cameco's - lethargic. Not good for a company that either needs to sell or be bought out because it is too small to compete against the majors. Today it is a neutral - yes it controls a mill, has decent production in the US west, but is going to have to develop other assets to grow, which will eat up all of the cash flow and more (i.e., secondary offerings in the future). They should have bought Hathor and Fission to consolidate the deposit in that area, but we believe that this will eventually happen via JV among all parties involved. I think there are better opportunities out there as the only way DNN outperforms are a new discovery or a takeover offer in my opinion.
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
Everyone has their problems and there is never a sure thing when bringing projects online. We have raised questions before about MCP, and the HREE side of the operation is a joke, to believe that is possible in America truly is foolish. Lynas, well they thought they were getting into a friendlier climate, but Malaysia has turned out to be anything but. At the end of the day they are the front runners and we have speculated that Stans could be a dark horse.
But with what you pointed out, if MCP or LYC are unable to open mines, well prices would rise in the future rather than fall if we assume that future production increases in China are already factored into market pricing. We just came out of the first phase of the REE bull market, and as we have said numerous times before - uranium, potash, silver, etc - a bull market never just ends, it pulls back and bounces. Long-term the demand is there and if the market wants REEs, they will need to pay what it costs to mine them - which is what has happened in the uranium market. As cheap production areas are depleted, the price has to rise in the long-term to the actual cost of mining these elements. Yes the market can be irrational for a time, but no one will produce REEs at a loss and especially not China for our benefit.
Obviously we have competing views on this, but I would point out that you are probably right for the short-term and I for the long-term. There is room for both of us to be right, and that is what makes markets after all.
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
I would argue we have been ahead of the curve having sold out of our truly speculative plays near the top. Those are still deposits in development without any resource estimates to this day. We did get caught in the bigger names when the market swung into risk-off mode, but due to our low initial entry point, we are still up over 100% from those entry prices on every REE stock we own or our clients. REE prices are similar to uranium in that it is a thinly traded market where traders can push it one way or the other quite quickly. Also, the prices producers and purchasers agree on for long-term contracts will ensure that mines are opened for supply and are able to stay in business in order to ensure a steady supply for REE consumers.
The continued fall in REE prices is less an indictment on the industry, and more so one of speculators in China.
Playing The Rebound In Coal: 5 Stocks To Lead The Way [View article]
Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
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5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
Today's News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
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Friday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
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So if you are asking should you buy because there might be good news regarding exploration, I would say that is not the way to go as the risk/reward is high/low. They may have little to say b/c they are negotiating or other reasons, but to buy half before earnings and half after to play longer-term is the better way to go.
The stock has been quite strong so a lot is already priced in...a minor misstep and 10% haircut easily.
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
But with what you pointed out, if MCP or LYC are unable to open mines, well prices would rise in the future rather than fall if we assume that future production increases in China are already factored into market pricing. We just came out of the first phase of the REE bull market, and as we have said numerous times before - uranium, potash, silver, etc - a bull market never just ends, it pulls back and bounces. Long-term the demand is there and if the market wants REEs, they will need to pay what it costs to mine them - which is what has happened in the uranium market. As cheap production areas are depleted, the price has to rise in the long-term to the actual cost of mining these elements. Yes the market can be irrational for a time, but no one will produce REEs at a loss and especially not China for our benefit.
Obviously we have competing views on this, but I would point out that you are probably right for the short-term and I for the long-term. There is room for both of us to be right, and that is what makes markets after all.
Thursday's Commodity News To Trade On [View article]
The continued fall in REE prices is less an indictment on the industry, and more so one of speculators in China.