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Matthew Smith

 
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  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yea tax loss sales may not, but we could see TAX GAIN sales this year believe it or not. For the short-term traders probably not, but for long-term investors we could see a rotation out with the uncertainty regarding the tax situation here in the US. If you like the Utica you should look into some plays with a bit more exposure than CHK. Yes CHK has a huge land position, but the acre/share and bang for your buck is with some of the smaller plays. In the early years I missed out on big gains in certain plays because I went with the big boy rather than the nimble juniors and mid-tier companies. Yea there is some risk, but CHK is a risk too in its current state. I am bullish all things Utica though.
    Dec 19, 2012. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    You insinuated it but this is pointless. Are you in the business of buying stocks that are just languishing? It is an idea being thrown out there for those looking for a trade going into 2013 as technically speaking it looks strong.

    To say something was missed is inaccurate, if you were to tell me that you bought GIS today or were looking into it, would it be fair or accurate for me to say oh man, you missed the move in that one LOL the stock has risen 1,929% since June of 1983 - back then was the time for investors to look into the sector? I think that you would agree that it is not a fair statement.

    I just try to put forth ideas for investors of stocks which have good fundamentals with a high probability of rising in the near to medium term...and it was up today for those who may have liked the idea.
    Dec 19, 2012. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    I think you missed the point. Fact is it has momentum and it's an idea to take a look at using this for next year for a rebound. Never said anything about calling a bottom but thanks for putting words into my mouth!
    Dec 19, 2012. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes always a great way to value a company which is priced based on future sales. Have you paid attention to GPOR's production coming online in early 2013? Seems that would be an important detail....
    Dec 18, 2012. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    In the vicinity. Don't have he link on me, but REXX did have a really nice map showing their property in relation to GPOR's on their website in an investor presentation. Remember they will have fewer frac stages and shorter laterals....
    Dec 18, 2012. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yea surprised here just b/c of recent action w lease purchases and market sentiment. Disappointed the pullback did not take...like to add on those when possible.
    Dec 18, 2012. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Very true. Tried to stress the variability there, but you did much better!
    Dec 18, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Immediate hit...but long term I think the acreage is worth at least 5x more than they paid. Look to the Eagle Ford for some guidance on that. But yes down and then a damper until more drill results and production is flowing.
    Dec 18, 2012. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes we will begin to see production rates in 1H of 2013. We will be able to start getting curves later, but could probably extrapolate some of the results from Chesapeake's NGL wells...roughly scientific!
    Dec 14, 2012. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Alright once again, not sure why you are looking into the past to discuss acquisitions as that point is mute. Read the notes from the presentation and comments coming out. The CEO stated that the days of big acquisitions are over. Focus is shifting towards internal factors. If they can find a way to extend Copaxone that would obviously be great for them and require a readjustment to the price, but just calling them like I see them and on the acquisition portion it is hard to argue against what the CEO stated.
    Dec 14, 2012. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes the low nat gas prices are something which everyone is aware of by now, but the NGL pricing coming down is a prediction made earlier in the year that seems to be happening a bit faster than anticipated. In the resource companies which are growing production areas to form a base to value in the future it is my experience that there is a "grace" period where CAPEX is going to outpace expectations and probably cause some dilution. At this point it seems a bit silly to worry about their spending, and would rather focus on liquidity - a far more valuable measurement I have found. Also remember that the company has a large acreage position which is held-by-production (HBP) which helps tremendously if you are forced to stop drilling.

    I think going it alone in the Utica long-term is going to pay handsome dividends, even with a potential secondary. They could always take on a joint venture partner as they build up production from their landholdings, but I do see an immediate boost coming in the second half of the year as they should be able to deliver more production to market out west. That does not solve the problem, but it helps. Also they are directing most of their spending at actually drilling wells and doing so in liquid rich areas (oily in the Wattenberg too).

    Looking at the Utica well costs, the first wells will be the most expensive but the company is forecasting for them to fall. It also seems to me that they will be utilizing pads early on with their next round of wells (that is off the top of my head, do not have my notes with me right now) so that should also help with utilization and efficiency efforts.

    So to answer your question, I have been a long-term buyer of PDCE on this pullback in the retirement account. I think the Utica will be timed where their wells will come online just as the midstream is ramping up in the area, thus providing for takeaway. The main driver is their growth in production multiplied by what I believe will be a higher oil price in 2013 - assuming fiscal cliff issues are avoided.

    I am trying to find time to have a conversation with management at some point in the near-future in order to ask some questions regarding their strategy and the actual timelines for some of these storylines they have put out there.
    Dec 13, 2012. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    A lot of people had issues with him, but I think he knew what he was doing. Big let down as rare earths deflated and with some of these missteps it seems he was forced out. It might have been a situation where like in college sports you self impose penalties hoping that the later punishment from the NCAA is less severe since you "cleaned house" or cleaned up the mess yourself...it is a bit odd, but I would say far more sloppy. One would have thought a plan would have been in place.
    Dec 13, 2012. 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes saw that news today right after I submitted my article...Looks like Sprint went in about where I was talking about and Clearwire shareholders are going to try and force them to pay higher...it shall be interesting to see where they negotiate to.
    Dec 13, 2012. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Yes, see today's article where I touched on exactly what you stated regarding that resistance...
    Dec 13, 2012. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    What would they have competed for?! Please the whole financial system would have collapsed as it is not structured to face demand for 100% liquidity. The Great Depression was a good thing in your book? Please...there is a lack of leadership and they are the only ones using all of the tools at their disposal and taking the blame for doing the right thing. Not doing anything would have set us back a decade or two overnight.
    Dec 13, 2012. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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